Tag Archive: EMU

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead and Why the FOMC Meeting may not be the Most Interesting

2020-01-27

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2020-01-27

The week ahead is arguably the most important here at the start of 2020.  The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meet. The US and the eurozone report initial estimates of Q4 19 GDP.  The eurozone also reports its preliminary estimate of January CPI.  China returns from the extended Lunar New Year celebration and reports its official PMI.  Japan will report December retail sales and industrial production. 

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FX Daily, January 24: Coronavirus Hits Asia Hardest, Europe and the US Resilient

2020-01-24

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2020-01-24

Overview: The new coronavirus in China has moved into the vacuum left by the US-China trade agreement and clear indications that the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve are on hold as investors searched for new drivers. The World Health Organization refrained from calling it a public health emergency even though China has dramatically stepped up its efforts to contain the new virus.

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FX Daily, January 10: Jobs Friday: Asymmetrical Risks?

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Overview:  The first full week of 2020 is ending on a quiet note, pending the often volatile US jobs report.  New record highs US equities on the back of easing geopolitical anxiety is a reflection of greater risk appetite that is evident across the capital markets.  Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today, though Chinese shares and a few of the smaller markets saw small losses. 

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FX Daily, January 7: Geopolitical Angst Eases, Helps Equities and Underpins the Greenback

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Overview: Without fresh escalation, investors cannot maintain a heightened sense of geopolitical anxiety.  The recovery of US shares yesterday set the tone for today's rebound in Asia and Europe. All the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied today, led by a 1.6% rally in Japan and a nearly 1.4% advance in Australia, with the exception of Taiwan.

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FX Daily, January 6: Markets Struggling to Stabilize to Start the New Week

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Overview: The global capital markets have yet to stabilize amid heightened geopolitical tension. Even though the US stock market finished last week off its lows, the sell-off continued in the Asia Pacific region. Japan's markets re-opened after an extended holiday, and the yen, at three-month highs, saw the Nikkei sell-off nearly 2%. Several markets in the region lost over 1%, including Taiwan, India, Thailand, and Indonesia. Europe's Dow Jones...

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The Turn

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

The year is winding down quietly, and the last week of 2019 is likely to be more of the same.  The general mood of the market is quite different than a year ago.  Then investors had marked down equities dramatically amid fears of what was perceived as a synchronized downturn.  Now with additional monetary easing in the pipeline and renewed expansion of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's balance sheets, risk appetites have been stoked.

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FX Daily, November 22: Europe’s Flash PMI Disappoints and Hong Kong Shares Advance Ahead of Sunday’s Election

2019-11-22

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2019-11-22

Overview: Equities in the Asia Pacific managed to mostly shrug off the drag of the losses in US equities yesterday. China and India could not escape the pull, but most other bourses were higher, led by Singapore and Hong Kong. It was the second consecutive week that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell. The US and European benchmarks are paring this week's small losses.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead Excluding Brexit

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

I feel a bit like the proverbial guy that asks, "Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" in trying to discuss the week ahead without knowing the results of the UK Parliament's decision on the new deal negotiated between Prime Minister Johnson and the EU.   I will write a separate note about Brexit before the Asian open. However, there are several other developments next week that will help shape the investment climate.

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FX Daily, October 1: Dollar Jumps to Start New Quarter

2019-10-01

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2019-10-01

Overview: The US dollar is rising against nearly every currency today as global growth concerns deepen. Japan's Tankan Survey showed large manufacturers confidence is a six-year low. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut 25 bp as widely expected and kept the door open for more. The final EMU PMI ticked up from the flash, but it is still at a seven-year low.

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FX Daily, September 04: HK Concession and Better EMU PMI Overshadows Self-Inflicted Trade and Brexit Woes

2019-09-04

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2019-09-04

Risk appetites have been bolstered by three developments. The UK appears to have taken a tentative step away from leaving the EU without a deal. Hong Kong's Chief Executive Lam has agreed to formally withdraw the controversial extradition measure that had been suspended.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Deterioration

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetites. President Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0.

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FX Daily, July 31: Sterling Steadies, Attention Shifts to FOMC

2019-07-31

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2019-07-31

Overview: After a shellacking in recent days, sterling has stabilized though there is not much of a bounce to speak of, suggesting the adjustment to the risk of a no-deal Brexit may not be complete. After the S&P 500 posted back-to-back declines, Asia Pacific equities struggled. Hong Kong shares led the regional decline.

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FX Daily, July 24: Poor PMI Weighs on Euro Ahead of ECB

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 24
Overview:  Disappointing flash PMI pushed an already offered euro lower ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. European bonds rallied and equities, amid a rash of earnings, is trying to extend the advance for a fourth consecutive session.  Italian and Spanish 10-year benchmark yields are off four-six basis points, while core bond yields are off two-three basis points.

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FX Weekly Preview: FOMC, EMU PMI, and Pre-G20 Positioning: Crossroads and Crosswinds

2019-06-15

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2019-06-15

The week ahead is likely to provide some clarification for investors on three fronts that have been a source of uncertainty.  The FOMC meeting, with updated forecasts, is center stage.  The credit markets are pushing the Fed to be aggressive but can be disappointed.  In the eurozone, the preliminary PMI may confirm a modest, even if uneven recovery. 

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FX Daily, May 29: Equity Slump Deepens while Yields Plunge

2019-05-29

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2019-05-29

Overview:  The slump in equities continues after the poor showing in the US yesterday.  Nearly all bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe are lower.  Indonesia is the notable exception as domestic operators re-position after the election.  Foreign investors have been notable sellers of Korean and Taiwanese shares this month (in excess of $6.2 bln). Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is testing its lowest levels since March, and the S&P 500 is poised to gap...

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FX Daily, May 23: Trade, Brexit, and Disappointing Flash PMIs Weigh on Global Markets

2019-05-23

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2019-05-23

Overview:  The deterioration of the investment climate is spurring the sales of stocks and the buying of bonds. The dollar is firm.  China and the US appear to be digging as if the trade tensions will remain for some time and the breech is beginning to look too big for Trump and Xi to pull another rabbit out of the hat like they did at the end of last year when the tariff truce was struck.   The move against Huawei and possible a number of...

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FX Daily, April 30: Dollar Pares more Gains as EMU GDP Surprise

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Overview: The S&P 500 set a new record high and close yesterday, but the lift to global markets was not strong enough to overcome the disappointing Chinese PMI.  Although Chinese equities traded higher on ideas that the news will spur additional stimulative measures, other Asian markets were mixed. 

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FX Daily, April 01: China Reanimates the Animal Spirits, While Europe Finds New Ways to Disappoint

2019-04-01

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2019-04-01

Overview:  Better than expected German retail sales ad employments reports at the end of last week has been followed by gains in China's official PMI  and Caixin's manufacturing reading. However, the spillover from China was limited in Asia.  Japan's Tankan survey and outlook disappointed and South Korea's exports and imports were weaker than expected. 

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FX Weekly Preview: Three Highlights in the Week Ahead

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

Three events next week will shape the investment climate. The Federal Reserve meets and will update its forecasts and guidance. The British House of Commons may vote for a third time on the Withdrawal Bill before Prime Minister May heads of the EU Summit to ask for an extension of the UK leaving the EU. The eurozone sees the flash March PMI, with great hope that the green shoots of spring will be evident.

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