From 100% expectations of a recession to now nobody expecting one. Will this mindset shift set the economy up for a recession? #economy #recession

Lance Roberts delves into the current economic climate and the likelihood of facing a recession. Discover why the unexpected may be just around the corner despite widespread confidence in the economy.

– Examining the economic predictions made back in 2022
– Understanding why no one anticipates a recession in the current year
– Exploring the pattern of expectations vs. reality in economic trends
– Discussing the necessity of a "shock effect" for economic changes
– Analyzing the potential setup for an unanticipated recession

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Economists’ ‘rush-to-judgement’ vs the lag effect catching up w economic data. Consumer spending and loan demand are waning as excesses in money supply are normalizing. The data re beginning to refute the "no recession" theme. Market correction is now over, bullish trend to resume. The challenge of NOT expecting recession; what the data is starting to show; not a lot of risk in credit markets…yet. That’s where trouble will show up first. Geopolitical conflicts do mot matter to markets for long; world wars do. Spreads between corporate bonds vs treasuries are at an all time low (90bp). There’s no stress in the economy…so far; pay attention to credit risk. 20th Anniversary of 2008 Financial Crisis is approaching. Letters from the IRS and a $34-B tax bill; the rich need to pay their

Strong economic growth in the 60s and 70s led to higher inflation rates. Current data doesn’t show stagflation, but concerns persist. GDP fell to 1.6 on a real basis. #EconomicInsights #Inflation #GDP

Description: Join Lance Roberts as he delves into the complex relationship between economic growth and inflation. Understand the current economic dynamics and dispel the myths surrounding stagflation.
– Explanation of how inflation correlates with economic growth
– Analysis of current economic data to assess the presence of stagflation
– Discussion on public concern and media coverage of stagflation
– Insights into the impact of GDP and PCE price index figures
– Evaluation of investment strategies in relation to economic conditions

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Over the last few weeks, the term “economic stagflation,” or just stagflation, has buzzed in the financial markets and media. economic “stagflation” is a complex economic phenomenon with significant implications for investors and the broader economy. As Taylor Sohns recently noted: “t’s a bit like having a skunk in your backyard – an unpleasant situation that’s hard to manage.” However, to understand economic stagflation, we need a precise definition. “Stagflation is an economic cycle characterized by slow [economic] growth and a high unemployment rate accompanied by inflation.” – nvestopedia.
Economic stagflation is a rare economic phenomenon that is difficult for policymakers to handle as attempting to correct one issue tends to exacerbate the others.

Hosted by RA Advisors Chief

Volatility in the market! Nasdaq futures up 7% overnight. Waiting on the Fed’s next move. Stay tuned for more updates! #stockmarket #Fed #volatility

Join us as we unpack a thrilling week in the markets with a specific focus on the Nasdaq futures. Dive into the details of market volatility, rate speculations, and investor sentiments.

– Explore the significant surge in Nasdaq futures, with Apple stocks up by 7% overnight.
– Understand the market’s reaction to Federal Reserve’s recent announcements regarding interest rates.
– Discuss the decreased likelihood of a rate cut and what it means for investors.
– Analyze the importance of upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and their potential impact.
– Examine the current market sentiment and future expectations concerning rate cuts

Apple’s results + the Biggest Buyback Ever: Are iPhones becoming a high-tech toaster? Labor/Jobs Report preview; what the Fed may do. t is surprising the market is now down more than 5%. This has been a government-driven economy. Janet Yellen is a Marxist. Who will win the tax cut battle? We’ll all lose. t’s apsneding problem, not a revenue problem. Why are taxing lines drawn at $400k? The life of a WalMart manager; tax dollars go to waste. New Department of Valuations. Next Lunch & Learn preview: Medicare. Are advisors giving conflicting advice on Social Security? No one wants to address Medicare; get a second opinion before taking SS early. The surge in interest in annuities; Gen-Z would rather have insurance than stocks: Stable income from annuities. Gen-Z living frugally: The

The Fed is trying to navigate ahead of a potential recession by managing inflation. Will they succeed in creating a "Goldilocks economy”? #Fed #Inflation #Economy

In this insightful video, Michael Lebowitz discusses the Federal Reserve’s current challenge in balancing economic growth and inflation. Uncover the subtle maneuvers the Fed believes could maintain a ‘Goldilocks economy’ amidst various hidden economic signals.
– Examining the Fed’s desire to avoid both recession and high inflation.
– The concept of a Goldilocks economy and its feasibility.
– Indicators that suggest the economy may not be as robust as perceived.
– The impact of the real rate of Federal funds on the economy.
– Strategies the Fed might use to manage economic conditions without triggering inflationary

Market volatility returns amid earnings season, with McDonald’s, KFC, and Starbuck’s reporting weak earnings, suggesting tru impact of inflation on consumers, wjho are becoming more price-conscious. Markets perform a pump & dump on Wedesnday, with stock retesting the 20-DMA…and failing. Pelaton earnings disappoint; the Fed holds rates steady; everything is fine, but they’re not cutting rates. Discussion of what this means for markets, liquidity, and reduction of Fed balance sheet. The Treasury’s Bond Strategy. Peloton Drama: CEO Exit; what the Fed said; markets have already priced-in the plan. The Fed sees the economy is gradually slwoing, and wants to get ahead of recession. Underlying data is weaker than headline numbers. Powell says, "no stag, no flation." Apple earnings preview,

Having cash on hand allows for seizing great opportunities. Wise investing involves careful consideration, not reckless decisions. #financialwisdom

In this video, Lance Roberts delves into the strategic value of maintaining a cash reserve. Discover why holding cash can be a critical element in savvy investing practices.

– Understand the importance of having liquidity in your investment strategy.
– Learn how cash reserves give you the flexibility to act on unexpected opportunities.
– Find out why thorough analysis and patience are crucial before investing.
– Hear why impulsively investing can be detrimental to your financial health.
– Get professional insights on managing your capital wisely in a fluctuating market.

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Fed Day brings dovish expectations; so far, so good in current earnings season. Economic data is all over the board; Europe emerges from Recession. Taxes to increase; tax flight is inevitable. Market correction continues; can it hold support at 100-DMA? A 10% correction would be normal. Earnings recap (so far) Amazon, CVS/Healthcare: Baby Boomers’ elective surgeries are impacting insurors’ actuarial tables; the rash of retirees. AMD disappoints because their report was on-target, not better-than-expected. Overall, a mixed-bag of results. What happens when companies miss? META: Is the ‘Metaverse’ fading? Lance’s Bitcoin commentary. Fed meeting preview: Inflation proving stickier than expected. Will the Fed hike rates? Ho the Fed communicates to markets: Different speakers’ different takes

Market update: Corporations are returning to buy equities after a $367 billion drop in share buybacks led to a 5.5% market correction. CEO confidence is improving, leading to increased buybacks. Google recently announced a $70 billion buyback. #investing #marketupdate

In this insightful piece, host Lance Roberts discusses the recent trends in the equity markets and the expected rebound. Dive into the dynamics of corporate buybacks and CEO confidence influencing market movements.
– Explanation of the recent 5.5% market correction
– Discussion on the role of corporations returning to the equity market
– Analysis of the impact of improving earnings on equity buying
– Insight into how CEO confidence correlates with financial strategies
– Exploration of trends in net buybacks based on

Over the last two weeks, the bullish sentiment index has reversed from extreme greed to fear. While the index can indeed fall further, what is notable is the sharp reversal of market “exuberance” in such a short span. It would be unsurprising if the market failed this initial resistance test and ultimately retested the 100-DMA soon. Such a pullback would solidify that support and complete the reversal of the bullish sentiment index.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jon Penn, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Bullish Sentiment Index Reverses With Buybacks Resuming"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-sentiment-index-reverses-with-buybacks-resuming/
"Sucker

CEO confidence and earnings drive buybacks, supporting stocks. Rebalancing risk advised to weather correction. Shorting market risky due to quick turns." #StockMarket #Investing #RiskManagement 📈📉

In today’s financial insight, Lance Roberts dives deep into the factors currently supporting the stock market. Discover key strategies to navigate potential market fluctuations and optimize your investment portfolio.

– Understand the critical role of buybacks in market dynamics.
– Explore how 100% of net market purchases are tied to buybacks.
– Learn about the impact of excess liquidity in the TGA account.
– Identify methods to rebalance risks and secure profits.
– Gain strategies to take advantage of market opportunities during corrections.

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Market performance in election years is marked by investor anxiety over the outcome, and the potential for outlying risk. The FOMC Meeting this week: will the Fed halt plans for cuts, and possibily even hike rates? Expectations for strong employment numbers. Markets rally on PCE report, beginning to build a new, bullish trend. This will be a busy earnings week. When the correction comes, how you will play? The liquidity boost from tax receipts in April & October. Retail sales details: Are things as strong as they seem: Paying more to buy the same. Is AI the wave of the future for cargo shipping? The AI conundrum and the future of work: What happens to all those displaced? The economic impact of AI: Shrinking middle class, expanding lower class, concentration of wealth among the

Potential tax changes looming! 📉 What could this mean for you? Find out more in this video. #taxes #financialplanning #changesahead

Join us as we delve into the imminent changes coming to the tax code. Understand what these adjustments mean for you and how they might impact your finances.

– Overview of the current tax code and its expiration.

– What happens if no changes are made to the tax code.

– Implications for personal tax brackets.

– Expected changes in tax percentages.

– Strategies to prepare for the upcoming tax code changes.

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➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel:
www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow

➢ Upcoming personal

Markets & Earnings Recap, PCE Preview: What is the Fed going to do? Tesla takes it on the chin; Mortgage rates and home prices are on the rise; are homeowners feeling trapped? How far will your money go in retiremetn? Higher taxes are coming; who’ll pay the most? Training for Retirement: How to flip the switch from accumulation to de-cumulation; living without that paycheck. Budgeting and spending planning: Where does the money go? Compounding only works if the principal remains untouched. Automating savings. Putting underwear on a payment plan; the ugly truth about automobile financing. Wall Street exists to sell you product. Current tax code expires at the end of 2025; are you prepared to pay higher taxes? Who’s really paying their "fair share?" What happens to capital gains rates?

Understanding the impact of inflation on GDP and data calculations is crucial. The right inflation number remains uncertain, affecting various economic indicators. #inflation #gdp

Explore the intricate relationship between real GDP and inflation in our latest video with guest expert Michael Lebowitz. Dive deep into the economic indicators that affect your daily life and understand their real impact.

– The significant role of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in real GDP calculation.
– Understanding inflation’s massive effect on economic data interpretation.
– Insight into retail sales figures and their lack of adjustment for inflation.
– The challenges with the current methods of adjusting economic data for inflation.
– Discussing the variability of inflation

Lance Roberts is back, and he’s brought Michael Lebowitz with him for today’s show: Most NFL general managers (GMs) are optimistic and displaying overconfidence ahead of today’s NFL draft. Like investors, GMs often think they are smarter than their competitors, aka the market. Yet, they frequently have similar mindsets and follow the same narratives that drive their competition. Lance is Back! What is really happening in Commercial Real Estate: Getting distressed inventories off the books at deep discounts. Market performance recap: Nice bounce off the 100-DMA; PCE coming: What it means & why it’s important.Economic strength is keeping inflation high; can it last? After markets’ nice sell off, downside risk still remains. Paying attention to economic reports and supply & demand; looking

Is the Tech Stock pullback healthy? What’s the difference in Bond ratings? Who is really being affected by a tripling of interest rates? These and other pressing financial and investing questions were fielded on our most recent Candid Coffee.
This was an "open-mic" edition of Candid Coffee, with all questions coming from registered participants; the questions’ time codes are noted below.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer

0:00 – Intro & Market recap:
3:30 – Tech stocks’ pull back is healthy; geopolitical risks;
8:05 – The difference between bond ratings
12:47 – Pension Fund investments in REITS w high default risk
19:19 – Are Roth distributions

Got a million dollars, now what? Creating a strategy tailored to your goals is key. Check out our latest vuidei for tips on super savers’ habits! 💰 #FinancialPlanning #millionairenextdoor

Discover the secrets behind the financial success of millionaires in our latest video! Learn the habits that could make or break your journey to reaching your saving goals.

– Unveiling the habits that drive millionaires to their wealth.
– Understand why saving a certain amount might be too much or not enough.
– The importance of creating a tailored strategy to meet your financial objectives.
– Insight into the effective habits that start the foundation of substantial savings.
– Highlights from our blog on the DNA of super-savers, akin to the concepts from "The Millionaire Next Door."

➢ Listen

How Tesla fell out of the Magnificent Seven; Tesla’s storage technology vs cheaper Chinese EV’s & the future of EV’s. The true environmental impact of building EV’s. The RIA 8-Ball predictions for PCE. What does realistic retirement look like? The impact of inflation, the Retirement Clock, & you. A discussion on the need for guaranteed income; how Gen-z will retire & the DNA of Super-savers. Educational goals and vocational training. Candid Coffee recap; the public are the best economists. Professional vs Trade careers & new hires’ earnings; the impact of AI on personal skills.

2:33 – Tesla Falls off the Magnificent Seven
13:48 – What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?
29:40 – How Gen-Z will Retire: The DNA of Super-savers
43:49 – Why the Public Are the Best Economists

Hosted by RIA

Don’t miss out on potential benefits by taking Social Security early. Consider the long-term financial impact for you and your spouse. #financialplanning #retirementplanning

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www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow

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Market Commentary: Are there more declines to come? What is the path forward for 5% Bonds? PCE and more earnings reports coming; How to crossover from accumulation to de-cumulation; topic teases: Keeping more of your inheritance; how to increase your inheritance. How to manage funds qwith legacy intent in mind. The important of financial planning before retirement; what is the rate of return you need? The importance of budgeting; financial mistakes you should avoid within five years of retirement; dealing with the rule changes. Dealing with and planning for Social Security. What is the income threshold for converting from pre-tax to Roth IRA?

3:13 – Market Commentary: Are the more declines to come?
14:30 – How to Manage Funds with Legacy Intent in Mind
30:20 – Five Financial Mistakes

Despite reports of strong sales, when adjusted for inflation, the numbers reveal a different story – highlighting potential concerns for employment and small businesses. #RetailSales #EconomicIndicators

Take a closer look at what the sales figures really mean with Lance Roberts. Discover why, despite appearances, inflation-adjusted sales are not as robust as you might think.
– Exploring the discrepancy between reported sales figures and their inflation-adjusted reality
– Examining the correlation between weak inflation-adjusted sales and retail performance
– Understanding the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)’s concerns regarding small business sales
– Delving into the implications of poor sales on employment growth
– Unveiling the economic indicators that are

After six days of market declines, is the Correction done? Election risk scenarios & market volatility; markets do not like uncertainty. PCE preview (the inflation gauge the Fed pays attention to). Markets break the 50-DMA, and are now sitting on the 100-DMA. The unsurprising uptick in inflation and the impact of higher raates; why commodities matter. Higher for longer, for not much longer: Rates must come down; NFIB preview. Hey, what happened to all the Ukraine aid US taxpayers propvided? Inflation is a function of supply & demand; where is the higher demand going to come from? Looking ahead to this week’s PCE number, expecting the markets to bounce: Sell into the rally.

3:14 – Is the Correction Done?
14:35 – The Unsurprising Uptick in Inflation
30:18 – Higher for Longer, not much

Financial planning goes beyond just saving money. It’s about considering all aspects like taxes to help you keep more money in the end. #moneymanagement #financialplanning

Maximize your savings and navigate the complexities of financial planning with expert guidance from Michael Lebowitz. Dive into strategies and critical insights to secure your financial future in our latest episode.

– Exploring the various methods of accumulating wealth for the distribution phase of finance.
– Understanding the importance of saving and planning for long-term financial security.
– Recognizing the often-overlooked aspects of financial planning on the journey to wealth.
– Preparing for the back end elements that are crucial to successful financial management.
– An in-depth discussion about tax

Markets respond to Israel attack on Iran; Procter & Gamble disappoints; markets are in a churning phase. Fed rate decisions & market behaviors. How much do you really need to survive in retirement (What’s your number?) Managing expectations, spending habits, and dependency on Social Securituy; the scinece & art of financial planning; retirement realities. The intimate process of deliverying financial plans; Candid Coffee preview. The three phases of retirement: Go-go, Slow-go, & No-go. Real Investment "’Shrooms." Tax Foundation survey: Do you pay your fair share of federal taxes?

3:12 – Markets’ Respond to Middle East Tensions
14:31 – How Much Do You Really Need to Retire?
30:24 – Delivering Financial Plans & Real Investment Shrooms
44:31 – Do You Pay Your Fair Share?

Hosted by RIA

Recent concerns about rising inflation levels are driving market trends. The Federal Reserve appears less worried about this. Stay tuned for a deep dive into the latest inflation data and commentary. #economy #inflation #federalreserve

Join Lance Roberts as he delves into the pressing economic issue of rising inflation and its impact on the markets. Tune in for an insightful analysis of the latest trends and data that are shaping the financial landscape.

– Understanding the recent concerns about inflation and its trajectory
– Exploring four consecutive months of unexpectedly high inflation rates
– Evaluating strong retail sales figures amidst growing inflation concerns
– Analyzing the bond market’s narrative influenced by inflation
– Insight into the Federal Reserve’s perspective

Husband Appreciation Day, Mother’s Day, cooling Middle East tensions; the is the Fed allowing the system to percolate? Inflation remains sticky. Markets in correction mode; what happens when the 50-DMA breaks? What to do when the market bounces. Is Fd policy tight enough? The market and the Fed are, for once, on the same page. Foreign buyers’ participation in auctions is good; markets are too driven by headlines and algorithms. Gen-Z "discoveries" and remakes of ’80’s movies; commentary on the good music of the late 1900’s. Is higher inflation sustainable? The give and take in inflation metrics; CPI is mostly about shelter prices; the problem with CPI data. Caitlin Clark/WNBA pay vs NBA pay: The economics of sports. Where salaries come from, and understanding what’s behind the headlines.

Are you concerned about your financial future amidst fluctuating markets? Lance Roberts delves into the impending impacts on your investments and the economy’s trajectory.

– Evaluating the longevity of market dynamics and their effects on personal finance.
– Unveiling Wall Street’s narrative on reflation in the economy.
– Examining the current status of economic reflation after significant growth.
– Analyzing the sustainability of the recent economic expansion.
– Identifying signals that the momentum of reflation is waning.

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757

➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel:
www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow

➢ Upcoming personal finance free