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The Myth of Stagnating Real Wages

Summary:
In the past, I often have observed that, contrary to popular belief, inflation-adjusted wages have been expanding rather than stagnating for many years. Wage stagnation has been a popular myth perpetuated by progressives bemoaning workers’ plight to promote their own political agenda. Naturally, progressives want even more progressive income taxes on higher-income workers and more social benefits for lower-income ones. Their goal is to redistribute income to reduce income inequality. They’ve actually succeeded in doing so, but they never seem to be satisfied. They always want more taxes and more benefits. The result is more “big government.” For now, let’s update the data that belie their basic claims: (1) The wrong measure of inflation-adjusted wages. One measure of real wages seems to

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In the past, I often have observed that, contrary to popular belief, inflation-adjusted wages have been expanding rather than stagnating for many years. Wage stagnation has been a popular myth perpetuated by progressives bemoaning workers’ plight to promote their own political agenda.

Naturally, progressives want even more progressive income taxes on higher-income workers and more social benefits for lower-income ones. Their goal is to redistribute income to reduce income inequality. They’ve actually succeeded in doing so, but they never seem to be satisfied. They always want more taxes and more benefits. The result is more “big government.” For now, let’s update the data that belie their basic claims:

(1) The wrong measure of inflation-adjusted wages. One measure of real wages seems to confirm the progressives’ stagnation thesis. Inflation-adjusted wages—defined as AHE divided by the CPI—peaked at a then-record high of $23.49 per hour during January 1973 (Fig. 1). It remained below that level until April 2020. That’s over 47 years! As of February 2021, it was only 1.4% above the 1973 peak. That’s pathetic.

I mean that analysis is pathetic. The CPI is widely known to be biased to the upside. A far better measure of consumer prices is the PCED. When we use that series to deflate the AHE series, we find that inflation-adjusted wages did stagnate during most of the 1970s through the mid-1990s. But it started moving higher around 1995 and has been achieving new highs since January 1999, rising along a trend line of 1.2% per year (Fig. 2).

(2) Rising standard of living. That represents a very solid increase in the purchasing power of consumers and in their standards of living! The real wage has increased 38% over the past 26 years from $16.18 during February 1995 to $22.34 during February 2021. Keep in mind that I am using AHE for production and nonsupervisory workers, who account for roughly 80% of private payrolls. This series certainly isn’t upwardly biased by the earnings of higher-wage workers.

Data available since 2006 show that AHE for higher-wage workers, on an inflation-adjusted basis using the PCED, rose 12.0% from the start of that year through February of this year (Fig. 3). Over the same period, AHE rose 19.5% for lower-wage workers.

Any way we slice or dice the data, the conclusion is the same: The income stagnation story is a myth. Standards of living have been rising for most Americans most of the time.

Dr. Ed Yardeni
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of independent investment strategy and economics research for institutional investors. In this blog, we highlight some of the more interesting relationships and developments that should be of interest to investors. Our premium research service is designed for institutional investors.

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