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Tag Archives: yields

The Reason For So Many Lies: He Finally Realizes He’s In Way Over His Head

This is not a man who’s comfortable thrust into a position of leadership. Say what you want about Ben Bernanke, and there’s a lot that still needs to be said, he at least carried on with the arrogance through thick and thin (almost entirely the latter). Jay Powell sounds like a boxer who just realized the lightweight he thought he was fighting put on 75 lbs of muscle and has been practicing by sparring with world champs.So, when he still says he’ll be the champ the words instead come out of...

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What do the Charts say about Risk Appetites?

The US dollar was generally stronger last week. The dollar-bloc currencies and sterling bore the most weight. Decreased appetites for risk, illustrated by losses in the major equity benchmarks, seemed to have played a role. Sterling fell every day last week to reach its lowest level since late March ahead of the weekend. While there was discussion of the possibility of negative rates in the US, the UK two-year yield has remained below zero for the past three sessions. New Zealand, which...

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Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and find their appropriate levels. WTF?  Where Are The Test Kits? Ture story.  A family member receives a text on the way to work this morning that her boss has a fever of 102 degrees with a diagnosis that she “ticked all the boxes for COVID-19.”   They couldn’t...

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Gone Fishing Newsletter: The Inflation Edition

We are thrilled to present a recent article from Samantha LaDuc, the Founder of LaDucTrading.com and the CIO at LaDuc Capital LLC.  Samantha LaDuc is known for timing major inflection points in equities, commodities, bonds/rates, currencies and volatility. As a Macro-to-Micro strategic technical analyst, educator and trader, she makes her insights available to active traders and investors who want to minimize risk while seizing year-making opportunities.   Spoiler Alert: We have no inflation...

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China’s Coronavirus Is The New Trade War

According to analysts and economists who watch these things, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index was expected to continue its rise. Having purportedly bottomed out back in September, like other sentiment indicators this one had been on the rebound, too, if, though, much less than those others (especially the “stimulus” loving ZEW). While maybe not suggesting the turnaround we had been told to expect over the last few months of 2019, 2020 was going to open by still going in the right...

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Powell’s Revelation And A TIP For Defense

“I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we even consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.” – Jerome Powell 10/30/2019 The recent quote above from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is powerful, to say the least. We cannot remember a time in the last 30 years when a Fed Chairman has so clearly articulated such a strong desire for more inflation. In particular, let’s dissect the bolded words in the quote for...

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16/10/2019:Corporate Bond Markets are Primed for a Blowout

My this week's column for The Currency is covering the build up of systemic risks in the global corporate bond markets: https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/1962/constantin-gurdgiev-corporate-bond-markets-are-primed-for-a-blowout. Synopsis: "Individual firms can be sensitive to the periodic repricing of risk by the investors. But collectively, the entire global corporate bond market is sitting on a powder keg of ultra-low government bond yields, with a risk-off fuse lit by the...

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Will Monetary or Fiscal Stimulus Turnaround the Next Recession?

A recession is emerging with interest rate curves inverted, the end of the business cycle at hand, world trade falling, and consumers and businesses beginning to pull back on spending.  The question is: will monetary or fiscal stimulus turn around a recession?  In this post, we find both stimulus alternatives likely to be too weak to have the necessary economic impact to lift the economy out of a recession. Finally, we will identify the key characteristics of a coming recession and the...

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Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend

Overview:  The global capital markets are ending the tumultuous week calmly, but it is far from clear that is will hold long.  Next week's flash PMIs have potential to disappoint, and there is risk of new escalation in the US-China trade conflict as the PRC threatens to take action to countermeasures to the new US tariffs. Most equity markets are higher, but the gains pare the week's losses but extend the losing streak.  The MSCI Asia Pacific's has fallen nearly 7% of the four-week...

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Market Implications For Removing Fed Chair Powell

John Kelly – White House Chief of Staff James Mattis – Secretary of Defense Jeff Sessions – Attorney General Rex Tillerson – Secretary of State Gary Cohn – Chief Economic Advisor Steve Bannon – White House Chief Strategist Anthony Scaramucci – White House Communications Director Reince Priebus – White House Chief of Staff Sean Spicer – White House Press Secretary James Comey – FBI Director “Every week is shark week in the Trump White House,” wrote The Hill contributing author Brad Bannon in...

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