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Tag Archives: yields

Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend

Overview:  The global capital markets are ending the tumultuous week calmly, but it is far from clear that is will hold long.  Next week's flash PMIs have potential to disappoint, and there is risk of new escalation in the US-China trade conflict as the PRC threatens to take action to countermeasures to the new US tariffs. Most equity markets are higher, but the gains pare the week's losses but extend the losing streak.  The MSCI Asia Pacific's has fallen nearly 7% of the four-week...

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Market Implications For Removing Fed Chair Powell

John Kelly – White House Chief of Staff James Mattis – Secretary of Defense Jeff Sessions – Attorney General Rex Tillerson – Secretary of State Gary Cohn – Chief Economic Advisor Steve Bannon – White House Chief Strategist Anthony Scaramucci – White House Communications Director Reince Priebus – White House Chief of Staff Sean Spicer – White House Press Secretary James Comey – FBI Director “Every week is shark week in the Trump White House,” wrote The Hill contributing author Brad Bannon in...

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Chairman Powell – You’re Fired (Update)

Since President Trump first discussed firing Jerome Powell, out of a sense of frustration that his Fed Chair pick was not dovish enough, he has regularly expressed his displeasure at Powell’s lack of willingness to do whatever it takes to keep the economy booming beyond its potential. Strong economic growth serves Trump well as it boosts the odds of winning a second term. This thought of firing the Fed Chair took an interesting turn yesterday when Mario Draghi, Jerome Powell’s counter-part in...

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Yield Spike

We highlighted the potential risk in our post yesterday, Druckenmiller On Bonds If you listened to the Druckenmiller interview we posted on New Year’s Day,  he thrives in bear markets, not by shorting stocks but being long bonds.  Shorting stocks in a bear market, though more profitable,  he has learned is riskier due to the higher propensity for nutcracking short squeezes.  Druck also worries about the level he is buying at. Nevertheless, this confirms our suspicion the bond market...

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Is It Time To Buy The Home Building Sector (XHB)

Throughout modern financial history, the ability to borrow at a 5% rate on a 30-year mortgage was considered a great deal. Over the past ten years, mortgage rates falling to between 3% and 4% have warped perceptions. Evidence of this fact can be found by the sticker shock and home buyer consternation that the currently available 5% mortgage rate is causing. The rate shock is not limited to home buyers; the home building sector has fallen over 30% since it recorded a record high in January...

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“Blind Faith” Isn’t A Strategy For “Late-Cycle” Markets

 “The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.”  – Lao Tzu In a tiny first step on December 16, 2015, the Federal Reserve (Fed) did something they had not done in over nine years. From the unprecedented starting point of zero, they raised the Fed Funds rate. Since, they have begun to allow their swollen balance sheet to contract in what can only be characterized as another unprecedented event. Although monetary policy remains extreme and real rates only recently have turned positive,...

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The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation

“Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman This oft-cited quote from the renowned American economist Milton Friedman suggests something important about inflation. What he implies is that inflation is a function of money, but what exactly does that mean? To better appreciate this thought, let’s use a simple example of three people stranded on a deserted island. One person has two bottles of water, and she is willing to sell one of the bottles to the highest...

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Higher Rates Are Crushing Investors

There is an old saying that proclaims, “it’s not the size of the ship, but the motion of the ocean.” Since this is a family-friendly publication, we will leave it at that. However, the saying has a connotation that is pertinent to the bond market today. Much of the media’s focus on the recent surge in yields has been on the absolute increase in numerical terms. The increase in rates and yields, while important, fails to consider the bigger forces that can inflict pain on bond holders, or...

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Chairman Powell – You’re Fired

“I’m a low interest rate person” – Donald Trump 2016 On Donald Trump’s hit TV show, The Apprentice, contestants competed to be Trump’s chief apprentice. Predictably, each show ended when the field of contestants was narrowed down by the firing of a would-be apprentice. While the show was pure entertainment, we suspect Trump’s management style was on full display. Trump has run private organizations his entire career. Within these organizations, he had a tremendous amount of unilateral...

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Defining Accommodative

Here are two statements from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) immediately following their interest rate decisions of August 1, 2018 and September 26, 2018. August 1, 2018 – In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.75-2.00%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2...

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