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Tag Archives: Yield Curve

As Wall Street Vultures Circle The Next Junk Bond Fund Casualty, A Familiar Name Emerges

Now that all the suspense surrounding the Fed's rate hike is gone, and only questions about the future of risk assets and deflation remain in a "Policy Mistake" world, the market's attention is turning back to the disturbing topic which spread like wildfire two weeks ago when first Third Avenue, and then several more mutual and hedge funds announced they would liquidate while imposing redemption "gates." To be sure, the spin doctors scrambled to make the Third Avenue junk bond fund collapse a...

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“Quad Witches, Bitches” – Stocks Crash On OpEx

CNBC was awash with "Remain Calm" comments today as yesterday's carnage extended into today post-option-expiration misery.. "I would call this a rather stable sell-off" and stocks are "in a bit of a funk" were among them... but for those buying the well-sponsored rip post-Yellen, here's what you get: Quad-Witch Bitches:. The last two days are the worst since Black Monday for stocks, and just as we warned a week ago, Yellen's confidence-inspiring...

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Citi “Resizes Infrastructure” Post Fed Rate Hike – Slashes 2,000 Jobs

Perhaps in a recognition of the collapsing yield curve, and for sure in the face of the mainstream's bullish narrative on US banks in a post-rate-hike paradigm, Citi has announced plans to cut at least 2,000 jobs starting next month. Despite exuberance over higher rates, it appears Citi's CEO Michael Corbat wants to restructure some of the bank’s businesses. As Bloomberg reports, the substantial portion will be in middle or back-office positions, according to a person briefed on the plans,...

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These Are Deutsche Bank’s Two Top Trades After A Fed Rate Hike

When it comes to Wednesday's rate hike, the opinion of Deutsche Bank, which has openly called such a move a "policy error" in the past, is quite clear: "the Fed’s objective is to slow credit. With deficient market liquidity that is easier done and said. In doing so it appears they also may help tidy up outstanding FX issues around RMB. Neither are good for risk on now and both favor curve flattening." To be sure, DB does not want to come out sounding like a tinfoil hat blog by telling the...

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Why The Plunge In Manufacturing ISM Matters

Via KesslerCompanies.com, Earlier this month (12/01/2015), the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (a mouthful but each word is necessary) disappointed. It was released at 48.6 (the Bloomberg Economist’s survey was for 50.5). We want to take a minute to explain why this is important, because as with any negative economic news released, it has been roundly dismissed by the optimistic Wall Street group. In the ISM’s case, the popular refrain is that manufacturing makes up...

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Extreme Gold Positioning Grows As Hedge Funds Add To Record Shorts

With an all time high of 293 ounces of paper per ounce of registered physical gold...   ...it appears hedge funds continue to ignore systemic risk and surging physical demand, following the trend lower in paper gold prices by adding to already record short positions in gold last week. With the speculative world near-record long the USDollar and record short gold, how much longer can the status quo boat can remain upright with so many on the same side.   The normal market...

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11 “Alarm Bells” That Show The Global Economic Crisis Is Getting Deeper

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, Economic activity is slowing down all over the planet, and a whole host of signs are indicating that we are essentially exactly where we were just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008.  Yesterday, I explained that the economies of Japan, Brazil, Canada and Russia are all in recession.  Today, I am mainly going to focus on the United States.  We are seeing so many things happen right now that we have not seen...

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The Best Insurance Policy Ever Written………Bar None (pardon the pun)

StealthFlation.org Stop getting your rocks off making fun of the gold bugs.  Get the hard asset now while it's undervalued my friends.  Hold your nose, dive in and simply consider it heavily discounted long term insurance, as you would any required insurance policy.   After all, wouldn't you buy the best long standing health insurance policy ever written, offered at the same low price it was over 5 years ago? If that fails to convince you more "sophisticated" modern investors...

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How To Trade The Fed’s Upcoming “Policy Error” In Three Parts

On Sunday, using an analysis by Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam, we showed why the Fed by miscalculating the equilibrium real rate (which in reality is negative due to the massive debt overhang and the declining nominal growth rate, as well as record deflation exported by every other developed nation and now, China) is about to unleash a major policy error by hiking rates in 3 weeks - a process which will promptly result in a recession and ultimately force the Fed to both cut rates to zero or...

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Stocks Dip As Credit, Copper, & Yield Curve Dump Trumps Crude & Dollar Pump

Triple whammy of dismal US data (CFNAI, Manufacturing PMI, and Existing Home Sales) but FedSpeak remained hawkish, Terror fears remain elevated (in Belgium and France), and credit and copper markets continue to carnage... is it any wonder stocks gave some back... and mainstream media was quick to assert...   Before we start, there appears to be some convergences (now OPEX week is over)... Stocks caught down to credit (a little)...   And Trannies catching down to crude.. * ...

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