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Tag Archives: weighing the week ahead

Weighing the Week Ahead: Building a Transition Portfolio

We have a moderate week for data, featuring housing, sentiment, and unemployment claims. Most important will be the report on personal income and spending. Attention will remain focused on vaccine progress and the pandemic, as well as the progress through Congress of a stimulus package. With markets near record highs, many investors are wondering about the safety of their portfolios. With growing hope for a full economic recovery, it is wise to ask: Is it time to build a “transition”...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Does the Reddit Rebellion Threaten Investor Portfolios?

We have a big week for data, including both ISM reports and a focus on employment. Investors thirst for more data about the strength of the economic rebound. We are also in the heart of earnings season, worried about vaccines, and wondering if Washington will provide more help. Despite this jam-packed agenda the financial media highlight a story that is much more fun. Someday our focus can return to data and earnings. For now, many are worried, asking: How will the Reddit Rebellion affect my...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Will Biden Proposals Mean for Investors?

We have a light, holiday-shortened week ahead. There are several reports on housing, but everyone will be focused on the Inauguration and hopes for a peaceful transition of power. Anyone with skin in the game will be asking: What does a Biden Administration mean for my investments? In my last installment of WTWA, I suggested the need for substantial earnings growth to justify stock valuations. I also introduced Springtime Blossom Indicators – what we really need to monitor in our search for...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Growth Justify Current Stock Prices?

We have an array of interesting data in the week ahead including inflation news, more employment numbers, and sentiment from consumers and small businesses. Most importantly we have the start of earnings season. Despite this, the political story will dominate, at least for a bit longer. While this is newsworthy, it is not the key element for investors. What best depicts this challenge to find the right focus? Let us turn to Chance the Gardener! The simple-minded gardener who knows only what...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Can Investors Expect before Springtime?

We can enjoy two light weeks for economic reports. Both are holiday-shortened, implying lower volume but not necessarily lower volatility. Personal income and spending will be especially interesting, along with updated unemployment claims data. It is also an especially important time to monitor sentiment. The biggest reports are schedule for the first week of 2021. The calendar will prompt many to offer specific and complex forecasts for next year. Good luck with that! It is necessary for...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Can Investors do about Gridlock?

We have another normal week for economic reports, featuring retail sales and housing data (NAHB Index, building permits, housing starts). Industrial production is from November, so it is a bit stale. Jobless claims continue to be a current and reasonably reliable indicator. The economy remains secondary for market participants. It has been ignored for months, so why change now? Attention has mostly been on more fiscal stimulus, with daily market moves registering even small hints of progress....

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What is the State of the Recovery?

We have a normal economic calendar with a focus on sentiment and inflation data. Economic reports remain secondary to Mr. Market. It has been a lights on, lights off situation with celebration of pandemic news and improvements in the Washington situation. We know much more than we did a month ago. It might not be a clear crystal ball, but it should be easier to identify key risks. It is time for investors to ask: What is the state of the economic recovery? In my last installment of WTWA,...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Algos Go Wild?

We have a big economic calendar jammed into three trading days. The reports are of moderate interest – consumer confidence, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and new home sales. In the current environment these will not provide market-moving news. With most of the A-Team taking the week off (and even B-Team players leaving early on Wednesday), trading volume will be lower. Normally this means low volume and little volatility. Perhaps not this time. The field is open for...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Learning from Swiss Cheese

We have a normal economic calendar, and the earnings season is winding down. There is interesting data on housing and retail sales – the strong parts of the current economy. Jobless claims remain important as does industrial production. The economic calendar remains less interesting than politics, market gyrations, and the coronavirus. Those will be the media topics. A bigger challenge is finding a way to identify what is important and to determine the causal relationships. It is time to...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: The Elusive Logic of Mr. Market

We have a very light economic calendar, and the earnings season is winding down. The punditry loves these opportunities. Rather than dealing with data, the field is open for speculation! This has already begun. Even before results were known, every news source was speculating about events and the apparently strange behavior of financial markets. Craving simple and consistent explanations, pundits are on a quest, asking What is the elusive logic of Mr. Market? In my last installment of...

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