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Tag Archives: weighing the week ahead

Weighing the Year Ahead: Positioning for 2020

Seeking Alpha has once again invited me to participate in their annual preview series. Unlike my other posts, this is an exclusive for SA, but there is no charge to see it. I hope you will read it there. I’ll be back to WTWA next week. For those who like to check the numbers regularly, here is the current Indicator Snapshot.

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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Defining Moment for Financial Markets

The economic calendar includes several significant reports.  Housing data on new home starts, retail sales, industrial production, and leading indicators are all on tap.  Fed fans can ponder the Beige Book, anecdotal evidence from each district to provide color at the next FOMC meeting. Earnings season begins, and the Washington news will continue to dominate. It is another week when nearly all of the punditry will be asking the wrong question.  Astute investors should be asking:...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Investment Effects of the Changing Political Landscape

The economic calendar is a modest one featuring the JOLTS report and inflation data. NFIB optimism and Michigan sentiment continue to be important since confidence is part of the current economic issue.  The relative lack of economic news leaves plenty of time for the punditry to offer “explanations” for each 1% market move.  The main competition will be the developing political stories.  As I frequently emphasize, we should not base our investment decisions on our political views.  That...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Bigger Wall Now Under Construction

The economic calendar is important this week featuring data on personal income and spending and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the PCE index.  Housing data includes four reports, with new home sales of special interest.  There are also reports on consumer sentiment from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan. Most of the economic reports have been beating expectations, but investor concerns seem to have increased.  The Wall of Worry has some new bricks provided...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Chinese Fireworks?

The economic calendar is a big one, featuring the employment situation report on Friday. The rest of the data – ADP employment, auto sales, and the ISM surveys – will be released over 2 ½ days. The US Independence Day celebration on Thursday will provide one type of fireworks. And of course, we have Canada Day on Monday. The combination of events, data, and the calendar make the week ahead even murkier than usual. I expect an initial focus on the US/China trade truce, a shift to discussion of...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: A De Facto Expansion of the Fed’s Mandate?

The economic calendar is normal, highlighting housing data, leading indicators, and the FOMC decision. The pundit conversation remains all about the Fed, but a new angle is getting more attention. The talking heads will not raise the question explicitly – sticking to personal ideas of what the Fed should be doing. The implication? Are we witnessing a de facto expansion of the Fed’s dual mandate? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I guessed that, despite the economic data, the punditry...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Bank on the Fed?

The economic calendar is important, featuring inflation data, two elements of the NBER “big four,” consumer confidence, and the JOLTS report. Those needing a fix of FedSpeak are out of luck since it is the quiet period for them. The data all point to an intersection between economic strength and the Fed. The question for stock investors will be: Should equity investors rely on the Fed to support stock prices? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I expected a search for meaning in the...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is there Any Sense in the Conflicting Market Messages?

The economic calendar is a big one, including the major employment reports and the ISM indexes. In normal times, this would be the theme. But these are not normal times. Fed Speakers will be on the trail with every casual utterance parsed by algorithms and traders. The debate over the most recent tariff announcement will grab headlines. And who knows what the next tweet might be? The punditry will operate with advocacy in mind. Instead, we should all be asking: Can investors make any...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Should We Make of a Sputtering Economic Engine?

The economic calendar is normal but we have a holiday-shortened week. We can also expect a slow return from the weekend marking the unofficial start of summer. Despite the interesting calendar, the biggest economic news will come in two weeks. While any tweet or Pres. Trump’s visit to Japan might spark a trading move, the key question is one of analyzing recent trends. We should all be asking: Do current trends imply a sputtering economic engine? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Determines the Agenda for Investment News?

The economic calendar is one of the lightest, and a long holiday weekend impends. How will this news vacuum be filled? Probably with celebrity news, following the latest tweets, analyzing any new Democrats running for President, and interviews with B-level guests. Rather than guessing which of these will dominate – an exercise in futility – I will take the suggestion of a wise reader. He encouraged me to choose what I thought was most important. That was good advice. We should all be...

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