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Tag Archives: weighing the week ahead

Weighing the Week Ahead: A De Facto Expansion of the Fed’s Mandate?

The economic calendar is normal, highlighting housing data, leading indicators, and the FOMC decision. The pundit conversation remains all about the Fed, but a new angle is getting more attention. The talking heads will not raise the question explicitly – sticking to personal ideas of what the Fed should be doing. The implication? Are we witnessing a de facto expansion of the Fed’s dual mandate? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I guessed that, despite the economic data, the punditry...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Bank on the Fed?

The economic calendar is important, featuring inflation data, two elements of the NBER “big four,” consumer confidence, and the JOLTS report. Those needing a fix of FedSpeak are out of luck since it is the quiet period for them. The data all point to an intersection between economic strength and the Fed. The question for stock investors will be: Should equity investors rely on the Fed to support stock prices? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I expected a search for meaning in the...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is there Any Sense in the Conflicting Market Messages?

The economic calendar is a big one, including the major employment reports and the ISM indexes. In normal times, this would be the theme. But these are not normal times. Fed Speakers will be on the trail with every casual utterance parsed by algorithms and traders. The debate over the most recent tariff announcement will grab headlines. And who knows what the next tweet might be? The punditry will operate with advocacy in mind. Instead, we should all be asking: Can investors make any...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Should We Make of a Sputtering Economic Engine?

The economic calendar is normal but we have a holiday-shortened week. We can also expect a slow return from the weekend marking the unofficial start of summer. Despite the interesting calendar, the biggest economic news will come in two weeks. While any tweet or Pres. Trump’s visit to Japan might spark a trading move, the key question is one of analyzing recent trends. We should all be asking: Do current trends imply a sputtering economic engine? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Determines the Agenda for Investment News?

The economic calendar is one of the lightest, and a long holiday weekend impends. How will this news vacuum be filled? Probably with celebrity news, following the latest tweets, analyzing any new Democrats running for President, and interviews with B-level guests. Rather than guessing which of these will dominate – an exercise in futility – I will take the suggestion of a wise reader. He encouraged me to choose what I thought was most important. That was good advice. We should all be...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Stalemate?

The economic calendar has plenty of important data. Fed speakers will be on the circuit. There is plenty of political and geopolitical news. On all of these fronts we see a stalemate. (Learn more about stalemate tricks from Grandmaster and PhD mathematician Karsten Müller) The financial punditry will ask: What does political stalemate mean for financial markets? The President “marveled” at how one of his tweets seemed to move the stock market! (Business Insider). Paul Schatz (Heritage...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: How to Watch the Information Avalanche

The calendar is massive, and it comes at a crucial time. I have never seen so much fresh information in a single week: the biggest economic reports, the heart of earnings season, and an FOMC meeting. And that is without any Washington surprises. It is a week where we should be paying special attention. Even though the pundits will report story-by-story, astute investors should wonder: What can we learn from this avalanche of new evidence? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I asked why the...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Why is the Market so Quiet?

The economic calendar is light so attention will again focus on Q1 earnings reports. Non-financial news will, no doubt, take center stage. The biggest market story seems to be the lack of action, as shown in our updates below. That might be fine for you and for me, but not for the punditry. They are all scratching their heads in wonderment, asking: Why is it so quiet? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I suggested that the general focus would be on Q1 earnings and possible confirmation of...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Will Q1 Earnings Reveal About Economic Strength?

The economic calendar is normal and includes some important reports. Despite this, the data will be overshadowed by Q1 earnings reports. With opinion sharply divided on future economic prospects, many will want to know how companies are doing and what their leaders think. They will be asking: What will Q1 earnings tell us about the strength and prospects for the economy? In last week’s installment of WTWA, took note of the persistent discussion about the end of the economic cycle. Despite...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Are We Near the End of the Economic Cycle?

The economic calendar is normal with an emphasis on inflation and sentiment data. None of the big reports is on the calendar, leaving pundits free to take up the biggest current issue. They will be asking: Are we near the end of the economic cycle? In my last full installment of WTWA I asked whether the Fed would hint at a new course. Impressions from the meeting were mixed. It has remained a prime topic of conversation fueled by Presidential tweets, comments, and potential Fed...

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