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Tag Archives: VIX

Trying To Be Consistently “Not Stupid”

“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” – Charlie Munger As described in a recent article, Has This Cycle Reached Its Tail, an appreciation for where the economy is within the cycle of economic expansion and contraction is quite important for investors. It offers a gauge, a guidepost of sorts, to know when to take a lot of risk and when to take a conservative approach....

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Fearing Complacency – RIA Pro UNLOCKED

The following article was posted for RIA Pro subscribers last week. We believe this article points to a precarious situation in the market that investors should be aware of. We hope you enjoy this article and get a better flavor for the benefits of becoming a RIA Pro subscriber. Sign up today at RIA Pro and use our site for 30 days before being charged. “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” – Franklin Roosevelt March 4, 1933...

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Has This Cycle Reached Its Tail?

We asked a few friends what the picture below looks like, and most told us they saw a badly drawn bird with a wide open beak. Based on the photograph below our colorful bird, they might be on to something.  As you might suspect, this article is not about our ability to graph a bird using Excel. The graph represents the current bull market and economic cycle as told by the yield curve and investor sentiment. As the picture is almost complete, the bird provides a clue to where...

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Watch This Pattern In The S&P 500 and VIX

In the past month, the U.S. stock market has chopped all over the place while getting nowhere in the end. Many traders have been whipsawed by market’s erratic recent action as they hope for another clear trend to form instead of back and forth reversals. Interestingly, during this time, the S&P 500 has been forming a wedge pattern that indicates that another significant trend is likely ahead once the market breaks out from this pattern (up or down). If the market breaks down from this...

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Why Another Volatility Spike May Be Ahead

In early October, when the U.S. stock market had reached an all-time high and investor sentiment was extremely complacent, I published a warning in Forbes called “Why Another Market Volatility Surge Is Likely Ahead.” I showed three indicators that I believed pointed to an imminent volatility spike, most likely as a result of a bearish market movement. Sure enough, that volatility spike came just a couple days later as the U.S. stock market corrected very sharply. Since peaking in...

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As Seen On Forbes: Volatility Is Surging

As seen on Forbes by RealInvestmentAdvice.com’s Jesse Colombo: “Volatility Is Surging.” After a calm spring and summer, volatility has come back with a vengeance in October. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX has surged from the 13s at the start of the month to nearly 23 right now, which is the largest volatility spike since the stock market correction in February. As volatility spiked, the Dow fell nearly 2,000 points since the start of October as rising interest rates spooked investors out...

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Sailing Versus Rowing : Active Versus Passive

Investor preferences shift between active and passive investing in a cyclical manner. Periods where the market has a strong tailwind of momentum behind it tend to attract a greater demand for passive strategies especially when that momentum carries on for a prolonged period of time. Alternatively, periods of market turbulence tend to swing sentiment back to active investing as a means of avoiding the risk of large losses. In the most recent bullish cycle the combination of market direction...

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As Seen On Forbes: Higher Volatility Is Likely Ahead

As seen on Forbes by RealInvestmentAdvice.com’s Jesse Colombo: “Why Another Market Volatility Surge Is Likely Ahead“: The U.S. stock market is climbing to record highs once again and volatility has calmed down dramatically from its panic-induced levels reached earlier this year. Traders have become complacent as they passively ride the stock market higher and bet on lower volatility again. While it may seem like all is well, several reliable indicators are warning that another powerful...

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