Monday , June 1 2020
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Tag Archives: Valuations

The Extremely Overvalued & Top Heavy U.S. Stock Market

Caveat freaking emptor. After the Fed effectively fully nationalized the financial markets by bailing out junk bonds on April 9th, turning Wall Street into a Soviet Sausage Factory,  almost any type of analysis, which was on its way out anyway,  was rendered completely meaningless. The new rocket scientists on Wall Street are the market Kremlinologists, who try to guess the new ranges where the Politburo will set yields and how many notes and bonds the Kommissar of Free Money is going...

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Previous Employment Concerns Becoming An Ugly Reality

“Every financial crisis, market upheaval, major correction, recession, etc. all came from one thing – an exogenous event that was not forecast or expected. This is why bear markets are always vicious, brutal, devastating, and fast. It is the exogenous event, usually credit-related, which sucks the liquidity out of the market, causing prices to plunge. As prices fall, investors begin to panic-sell driving prices lower which forces more selling in the market until, ultimately, sellers are...

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#MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken

“The Federal Reserve is poised to spray trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy once a massive aid package to fight the coronavirus and its aftershocks is signed into law. These actions are unprecedented, going beyond anything it did during the 2008 financial crisis in a sign of the extraordinary challenge facing the nation.” – Bloomberg Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a fight to offset an economic shock bigger than the financial crisis, and they are engaging every possible monetary...

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Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third

Over the last couple of years, we have often discussed the impact of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing liquidity injections, which was causing distortions in financial markets, mal-investment, and the expansion of the “wealth gap.”  Our concerns were readily dismissed as bearish as asset prices were rising. The excuse: “Don’t fight the Fed” However, after years of zero interest rates, never-ending support of accommodative monetary policy, and a lack of regulatory oversight, the consequences of...

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#MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession?

“Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Sunday downplayed the likelihood of an economic recession as the economy takes a beating from the coronavirus outbreak. “I just think, in general, I would be very careful to put too much emphasis on what bond rates are doing, what interest rates are doing. Or even in the short, short run, the stock market. I think you have a lot of mood swings here and I don’t think it reflects the fundamentals.” – Larry Kudlow via CNBC I understand they have to...

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Margin Call: You Were Warned Of The Risk

I have been slammed with emails over the last couple of days asking the following questions: “What just happened to my bonds?” “What happened to my gold position, shouldn’t it be going up?” “Why are all my stocks being flushed at the same time?” As noted by Zerohedge: “Stocks down, Bonds down, credit down, gold down, oil down, copper down, crypto down, global systemically important banks down, and liquidity down… Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio… ever…” This...

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#MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus

Last week, we discussed in Fed’s ‘Emergency Rate Cut’ Reveals Recession Risks” that while current economic data may not suggest a possibility of a recession was imminent, other “off the run” data didn’t agree. “We are likely experiencing more than just a ‘soft patch’ currently despite the mainstream analysts’ rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, even before the impact of COVID-19, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer...

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