Tag Archive: #USD

How (Not) to Win Friends and Influence People

2021-09-13

by

2021-09-13

Overview:  There are two big themes in the capital markets today.  The first is the ongoing push of the Chinese state into what was the private sector.  Today's actions involve breaking Ant's lending arms into separate entities, with the state taking a stake.  This weighed on Chinese shares and Hong Kong, where many are lists. On the other hand, Japanese markets extended their recent gains.

Read More »

Don’t Resist the Dollar’s Pull Ahead of the FOMC Meeting

2021-09-13

by

2021-09-13

The US dollar enjoyed a firmer bias last week despite the disappointing jobs growth reported on September 3.  The Norwegian krone was the only major currency that gained against the greenback.  Brent was less than a quarter of a dollar firmer, so the likelihood of the central bank raising rates later this month offers a more compelling explanation. 

Read More »

Don’t Make a Fetish Out of What may be a Minor Change in the Pace of ECB Bond Buying

2021-09-09

by

2021-09-09

Overview: Yesterday's retreat in US indices was part of and helped further this bout of profit-taking. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended an eight-day advance yesterday and fell further today. Japanese indices, which had set multiyear highs, fell for the first time in nine sessions. Hong Kong led the regional slide with a 2.3% decline as China's crackdown on the gaming industry continued. 

Read More »

The Greenback Continues to Claw Back Recent Losses

2021-09-08

by

2021-09-08

Overview:  The US dollar continues to pare its recent losses and is firm against most major currencies in what has the feel of a risk-off day.  The other funding currencies, yen and Swiss franc, are steady, while the euro is heavy but holding up better than the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies.  Emerging market currencies are also lower, and the JP Morgan EM FX index is off for the third consecutive session. 

Read More »

Risk Appetites Return from Holiday

2021-08-23

by

2021-08-23

Overview: After an ugly week, market participants have returned with strong risk appetites.  Equities are rebounding, and the greenback is paring recent gains.  Bond yields are firm, as are commodities.  Asia Pacific equities got the ball rolling with more than 1% gains in several large markets, including Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. 

Read More »

Consolidative Mood Grips Markets

2021-08-18

by

2021-08-18

Overview:  The dollar is consolidating yesterday's advance and is confined to fairly narrow ranges in quiet turnover.  Most of the major currencies are within 0.1% of yesterday's close near midday in Europe. The $1.1700-level held in the euro. 

Read More »

FX Daily, August 17: Antipodeans and Sterling Bear Brunt of Greenback’s Gains

2021-08-17

by

2021-08-17

Overview:  Concern about the economic impact of the virus and new efforts by China to curb "unfair" competition among online companies has triggered a dramatic response by investors.  A lockdown in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of Australia signaling it will respond if the economic fallout increases sent the Antipodean currencies sharply lower.

Read More »

Dollar Rally Stalls on Softening Rates and Dramatic Drop in Consumer Confidence

2021-08-16

by

2021-08-16

Profit-taking on long dollar positions was seen ahead of the weekend.  The yield on the December 2022 Eurodollar futures slipped to finish unchanged on the week that saw CPI and PPI reports.

Read More »

Markets Look for Direction, Currencies in Narrow Ranges

2021-08-12

by

2021-08-12

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued today as investors wrestle with the rising virus, the shifting stance of several central banks, and a more tense geopolitical backdrop.  Equity markets are struggling today. 

Read More »

Rising Rates Underpin the Greenback

2021-08-11

by

2021-08-11

Overview: The US dollar remains firm ahead of the July CPI release, and even though Chicago Fed Evans demurred from the hawkish talk, the market is getting more comfortable with the idea of a rate hike next year. 

Read More »

Gold’s Flash Crash and Limited Follow-Through Greenback Gains

2021-08-09

by

2021-08-09

Overview:  A flash crash saw gold drop more than $70 an ounce in early Asia. Silver was dragged lower too.  The precious metals have stabilized at lower levels, but it signals a rough adjustment to a higher interest rate environment as a hawkish BOE and strong US employment data suggest peak monetary stimulus is at hand. 

Read More »

The Greenback Reversed Higher in the Middle of Last Week and the Jobs Data Provided an Accelerant

2021-08-09

by

2021-08-09

The second consecutive monthly surge in US non-farm payrolls of more than 900k ensured that the five-week decline in the 10-year yield was over and sent the dollar to new highs for the week against most of the major currencies. 

Read More »

US Employment Data is Important but for the Millionth Time, Don’t Exaggerate It

2021-08-06

by

2021-08-06

Overview: Record high closes yesterday for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have done little to help global equities today.  Most of the Asia Pacific region markets, but Japan and Australia slipped ahead of the weekend while still holding on to gains for the week.

Read More »

Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Stalls

2021-08-05

by

2021-08-05

Overview: US interest rates and the dollar turned higher following comments by the Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida, who appeared to throw his lot with the more hawkish members. The dollar recovered from weakness that had seen it fall to almost JPY108.70, its lowest level since late May, and lifted the euro to $1.19. 

Read More »

Greenback Softens amid Stronger Risk Appetites to Start August

2021-08-02

by

2021-08-02

Overview: Risk appetites snap back after easing in the waning hours last month. The MSCI Asia Pacific equities jumped back after dropping 1.8% last week for the second week in a row. Japan's Topix and China's CSI 300 rose by more than 2%, and Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia gained more than 1%. 

Read More »

FX Daily, July 22: Enguard Lagarde

2021-07-22

by

2021-07-22

Overview: The rally in US shares yesterday, ostensibly fueled by strong earnings reports, is helping to encourage risk appetites today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its biggest gain in around two weeks, though Japan's markets are closed today and tomorrow.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is building on yesterday's rally, and with today's ~0.8% gain, it is up on the week.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 21: Did Japan Deliver a Fait Accompli to the US?

2021-07-21

by

2021-07-21

Overview:  The biggest rally in US equities in four months has helped stabilize global shares today.  In the Asia Pacific region, Japan, China, and Australian markets advanced.  Led by information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 1.35% near the middle of the session. 

Read More »

FX Daily, July 20: Doom and Gloom Takes Toll

2021-07-20

by

2021-07-20

Overview:  The capital markets have begun stabilizing after yesterday's dramatic moves.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index did, though, see follow-through selling, and the third consecutive loss saw the benchmark close below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is posting small gains to snap a four-day drop. 

Read More »

FX Daily, July 16: BOJ Tweaks Forecasts

2021-07-16

by

2021-07-16

The markets head into the weekend with little fanfare. Most large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region slipped earlier today. Hong Kong, which will be exempt from the need to secure mainland's cybersecurity approval for foreign IPOs, and Australia were notable exceptions. European bourses are edging higher, while US futures are oscillating around unchanged levels.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 15: Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally

2021-07-15

by

2021-07-15

Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling. The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction. The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower.

Read More »