Tag Archive: US
Greenback Remains Bid and the Market has not Given Up on JPY150
Overview: The greenback did not strengthen yesterday
in Asian and European turnover despite the deteriorating conditions in the
Middle East, but it did rally as North American participants entered the fray. Indeed,
the Dollar Index rose from a marginal new four-day low to a marginally new
four-day high. The safe haven bid seen in gold and oil, was reflected in the
foreign exchange market by the strength of the Swiss franc, the only G10
currency to...
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Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil and Gold, but little Sign of Haven Buying in FX
Overview: US economic data surprised to the upside yesterday,
and although interest rates rose as one would expect, the dollar's initial
gains were pared, and the Dollar Index finished slightly lower on the day. This
seemed, in some respects, to echo how the greenback reacted to the recent jobs
report. However, then, interest rates softened, but the inability to rally on
seemingly good news is notable. The heightened tensions in the Middle East...
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Markets Remain on Edge
Overview: The markets remain on edge. The press
reports US President Biden is planning an imminent trip to Israel while Iran
warns of "multiple fronts" against Israel if the attacks on Gaza
continued. The dollar, which was offered yesterday, is better bid today. Still,
the capital markets are relatively quiet. Even the Swiss franc, which was the
strongest G10 currency last week (~0.9%) is slightly heavier today. Among
emerging market...
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Capital Markets are Calm though Anxiety Continues to Run High
Overview: The risk that the war in Israel spreads
remains palatable, and several observers have warned of the greatest risks of a
world war in a generation. Still, the capital markets remain relatively calm. The
US dollar is softer after closing last week firmly. The only G10 currency
unable to post corrective upticks today is the Swiss franc. Among emerging
market currencies, the Polish zloty has been boosted by the pro-EU election
results, and...
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Greenback Consolidates Ahead of September CPI
Overview: The dollar is mixed against the G10
currencies. It is confined to narrow ranges ahead of today's CPI report. The
Russian ruble is the strongest of the emerging market currencies following the
imposition of new capital controls, forcing many exporters to repatriate their
foreign earnings. After posting a key upside reversal at the end of last week,
gold continues to recover. It nearly $1883 so far today, the best level in more
than two...
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Bonds Extend Recovery
Overview: Broadly speaking, the dollar's
recent pullback was extended today but the momentum appears to be slowing,
perhaps ahead of tomorrow's US CPI report. The Dollar Index slipped to its
lowest level since September 25 before steadying. The greenback is mixed as the
North American market is set to open. The dollar bloc and Swedish krona are the
underperformers. The Swiss franc is the best, up about 0.2%, while the yen and euro are little...
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Sharp Fall in US Yields ahead of Large Supply
Overview: The market continues to monitor
developments in Israel and the Middle East. The economic calendar is light
today and the market is showing a strong appetite for risk. Except for China
and South Korea, large bourses in the Asia Pacific rallied. Japan's indices
jumped more than 2% and Australia by 1% to lead the region. Europe's Stoxx 600
is up 1.5% near midday, which, if sustained would be the largest in nearly a
month. US index futures...
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War in Israel Spurs Flight to Dollars, Yen and Gold, While Driving up the Price of Oil
Overview: There are three main developments. First,
the market is digesting the implication of the US employment data, where the
optics were strong (336k increase in nonfarm payrolls compared with 170k median
forecast in Bloomberg and Dow Jones surveys) but some details were
disappointing (like the third consecutive decline in full-time posts,
seasonally adjusted). Second, Chinese mainland market re-opened after a six-day
holiday). Chinese stocks...
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US Employment Data to Determine Whether the Greenback’s Rally since mid-July is Over…Maybe
Overview: One key issue for market participants is
if the dollar's pullback is the beginning of something important or is largely
position adjusting ahead of today's US jobs report. We suspect that the
dollar's rally that began in mid-July is over, though a strong employment
report that boosts the chances of a Fed hike before year-end could quickly
demonstrate the folly of making claims ahead of what is still one of the most
important reports in...
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Markets Continue to Struggle
Overview: The markets remain unsettled. Follow-through
dollar selling has been limited today after yesterday's pullback. Narrow ranges
are prevailing, but the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar, the weakest G10
currencies in recent days, are heavier again today. Although it seems that the
BOJ did not intervene earlier this week, but the dollar bulls has been
chastened just the same and the greenback is holdings below yesterday's high...
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Strategic Ambiguity Leaves Intervention Question Unanswered, but US Dollar has Steadied
Overview: Dramatic yen price action around the JOLTS
report yesterday after the dollar pierced the JPY150 level spurred speculation
of BOJ intervention. Although there has been no confirmation, the strategic
ambiguity is helping steady the yen and the dollar more broadly today, even
though US yields remain firm. Final PMI readings were a better than the flash
estimates and this may also be facilitating the consolidative tone. Most
promising, from a...
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Dollar Stabilizes After Extending Gains
Overview: The dollar's gains were initially extended before a
consolidative tone emerged. The euro has been sold to $1.0460
and has returned to almost $1.05. Sterling fell to nearly $1.2060 and has
recovered though has stopped short of $1.2100. The dollar edged closed to
JPY150 but stalled near JPY149.95 and has held above JPY149.65. The Australian
dollar near $0.6300 and the greenback rose to CAD1.3725.
Benchmark 10-year yields are firm, though...
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US Yields and Dollar Rise After US Government Closure Averted
Overview: The US avoided a government shutdown,
barely, and this eased one of the headwinds that were anticipated. In turn,
this is spurring new gains in US interest rates and helping underpin the dollar
at the start of the new quarter. The 10-year Treasury is holding above 4.60%
and nearing last week's high (4.68%). The two-year yield gapped higher and is
near 5.10%. The high from September 21 was almost 5.20%. The Swiss franc is the
only G10...
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Dollar Sets Back into Month- and Quarter-End Ahead of likely US Government Shutdown
Overview: The dollar's surge stalled yesterday, and
follow-through selling has pressed it lower against all the G10 currencies
today. The dollar-bloc and Scandis are leading the move. Month-end, quarter-end
pressures, coupled with a likely partial shutdown of the government beginning
Monday, and after key chart levels were approached or violated earlier this week,
serving as a bit a cathartic event. The Swiss franc snapped a 12-day losing
streak...
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Looming US Government Shutdown Stems the Dollar’s Surge
Overview: The increasingly likely partial US federal
government shutdown has spurred a bout of liquidation of long dollar positions.
The psychologically important JPY150 level was approached, and the euro was
sold through $1.05 yesterday, and the greenback has come back better offered
today. It is lower against all the G10 currencies. It is mixed against the
emerging market currency complex, with central European currencies and South
African rand...
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Firmer Bonds and Stocks, but the Dollar Presses Ahead
Overview: The S&P 500 hit three-month lows
yesterday, while the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence fell to
a four-month low. New home sales fell to their lowest level in five years. The
US federal government appears headed for a partial shutdown on October 1. Still,
the greenback rides high. It is extending its gains against several G10
currencies, including the euro and sterling. The Swiss franc is moving lower
for the 12th...
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Neither the Threat of Intervention Nor a Possible US Government Shutdown is Derailing the Greenback
Overview: The US dollar is stabilizing a bit but
only after extending its gains initially It reached almost JPY149.20, while the
euro slipped to $1.0570 before recovering to straddle $1.06 in the European
morning. Sterling sank a little through $1.2170 but stabilized to return to
almost $1.2200. The Australian dollar tested last week's low slightly below
$0.6390 before resurfacing above $0.6400. The US dollar toyed with CAD1.3500,
where there is a...
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Dollar Edges to New High for the Year against the Japanese Yen, While Developer Woes Hit Chinese Stocks and Yuan
Overview: The US dollar begins the new week on a
firm note. It is trading at new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and
is bid against nearly all the G10 currencies, though the Swedish krona and
Canadian dollar are resisting the greenback's push. Most emerging market
currencies are heavier, with the Polish zloty and a few East Asian currencies
holding their own. Gold is trading with a heavier bias near $1922, but within
the ranges seen at...
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Yen Drops After BOJ Does Nothing and Says Little
Overview: The BOJ's failure to do anything or
further ideas that an exit of the negative target rate, despite the firm CPI
report helped the dollar recover the ground lost yesterday against the yen. The
focus has returned to "intervention watch" and the market continues
to press for the official pain threshold. Sterling is the weakest of the G10
currencies, off another 0.5% today following the BOE's decision not to hike
yesterday. The...
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The Canadian Dollar Shines in a Mostly Consolidative FX Market Ahead of the Flurry of Central Bank Meetings
Overview: Ahead of the flurry of central bank
meetings, starting with the Federal Reserve and Brazil tomorrow, the dollar is
largely consolidating in narrow ranges. The euro, sterling, and yen are trading
slightly heavier, while the dollar bloc and Scandis enjoy a firmer bias. The
Canadian dollar stands out as is trades at its best level since mid-August
ahead of its CPI report and despite a diplomatic dispute with India and the
failure of...
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