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Tag Archives: US

What to Look at Next Week

The US dollar extended its recent gains even as the yield on the 10-year Treasury pulled back by more than 15 basis points.  The euro, the 7-Up to the dollar's cola, fell to its lowest level since last November and the greenback rose to new highs for the year against most of the major currencies, save sterling and the Canadian dollar.  While recent US data have prompted some scaling back of Q1 GDP forecasts, 5%-6% still likely puts it atop the major economies.  Fed officials' latest...

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Trilateralism: The Past is Prologue

Intercapitalist rivalries ebb and flow and shaped modern history more than many may realize. Recall that Nixon unilaterally severed the dollar's last ties to gold, not because of the Soviet Union.  America's capitalist allies in Europe demanded gold for their dollars, accumulating from aid, foreign direct investment, and trade. A couple years after the collapse of Bretton Woods, the Trilateral Commission was formed to ensure greater dialogue among the three large capitalist camps:  North...

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Wage Cap Allows Millionaires to Stop Contributing to Social Security on February 23, 2021

Today is the first day of 2021 that millionaires make no contribution to Social Security. Social Security gives retirement, disability, and survivor benefits to almost one-in-five Americans every year, many of whom are children. However, contributions to the program are capped to the first $142,800 of wage income per year. This means that someone who earns $1,000,000 in 2021 stops contributing to the program on February 23. Most people make less than $142,800 per year, so they pay the 6.2...

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6/2/21: Longer Trends in Economic Uncertainty

Quite dramatic trends in terms of rising economic uncertainty over the last 21 years:And, not surprisingly, the rise of uncertainty in Europe, the U.S., and globally pre-dates the Covid19 pandemic. In fact, Europe has been experiencing dramatically elevated uncertainty levels since the start of the Euro area crisis, while the U.S. saw a virtually exponential rise in uncertainty from 2017 on. Global measures of uncertainty have been running high through 2016 and rose dramatically...

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Unemployment Falls to 6.3 Percent, but Job Growth Weak

Trump is the first president to leave office with a loss of jobs since Herbert Hoover. The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage points in January to 6.3 percent. Much of this decline was due to people leaving the labor market as the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) only rose by 0.1 percentage point. The EPOP now stands at 57.5 percent, 3.6 percentage points below its year-ago level. The establishment survey showed an increase of just 49,000 jobs, with the private sector only...

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CEPR News: The Fierce Urgency of Now

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Four Percent Fourth Quarter Growth Leaves GDP 2.5 Percent Below Year-Ago Level

Consumption spending has been contracting over the course of the fourth quarter The economy grew at a 4.0 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, driven largely by strong growth in housing and investment in equipment. This growth, following the extraordinary 33.4 percent post-shutdown growth in the third quarter, still leaves the GDP 2.5 percent below its year-ago level. The growth reported for consumption is entirely due to strong third-quarter growth. There is an important timing issue...

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Family Benefits in US Fall Further Behind

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