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Tag Archives: US Outlook

Full Blown FX Risk Aversion, Trade War Reaches New Heights

Full Blown FX Risk Aversion, Trade War Reaches New Heights Daily FX Market Roundup August 23, 2019 The US-China trade war reached new heights on Friday. Currencies and equities ended the week with major losses after China hit the US with tariffs on $75B worth of US goods. Almost immediately, President Trump ordered US companies to start looking for an alternative to China and promised a more painful response. Many believe that he will raise Chinese tariffs to 25% but we can’t rule out a...

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EURO Outlook & The Fed is Sending an Interesting Message

EURO Outlook & The Fed is Sending an Interesting Message Daily FX Market Roundup August 22, 2019 No one is buying euros because they are worried about the political situation in Italy, the possibility of a recession in Germany, the prospect of aggressive easing from the European Central Bank and the ongoing risk of more tariffs from the US. This week, Italy’s Prime Minister Conte resigned, turning crisis into chaos for the Eurozone’s third largest economy. Of all the euro’s...

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Next 48 Hours is Make or Break for EURO

Next 48 Hours is Make or Break for EURO Daily FX Market Roundup August 21, 2019 The next 48 hours will be very important for EUR/USD because the currency pair has been confined in a narrow 60 pip trading range for most of the week. With Germany talking about potential recession in the third quarter and the Italian government in disarray, the single currency is struggling to find buyers. Yet the pair holds above 2 year lows because the market also expects an interest rate cut from the...

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Risk On Tone Keeps FX Steady

Market Drivers August 21, 2019 BoJo in talks with Merkel and Macron Risk on flows dominate Nikkei -0.28% Dax +1.11% UST 10Y 1.59% Oil $56/bbl Gold $1499/oz BTCUSD $10100 Europe and Asia: GBP UK PSNB -2.0B vs. -3.7B North America: CAD CPI 8:30 USD Existing Home Sales 10:00 Another very quiet night of trade in FX today as markets remain in a state of equilibrium amidst little fresh news and generally quiet summer flows. A better risk-on tone has helped to keep both USDJPY and USDCHF...

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Pound Slips Below 1.2100 as Johnson Promises Hard Brexit

Market Drivers August 20, 2019 BoJo reiterates commitment to hard Brexit Markets in the summer stall Nikkei 0.55% Dax 0.15% UST 10Y 1.59% Oil $56/bbl Gold $1499/oz BTCUSD $10750 Europe and Asia: No Data North America: No Data Its been a very quiet dealing session in Asian and early Europe today with virtually no eco data or fresh headlines on the tape as majors traded listlessly in very tight ranges with many players away for the final two weeks of summer. The only discernible movement...

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FX: Getting a Sugar High from Talk of Stimulus?

FX: Germany, US, China All Talk Stimulus Daily FX Market Roundup August Investors are dipping their toes back into US assets. Stocks traded higher for the third day in a row, Treasury yields rebounded off their lows and the greenback started the week stronger against all of the major currencies. These moves had nothing to do with data as there are no major US economic reports on the calendar this week. Instead currencies continue to be driven by headline risk and the prospect of fiscal...

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Promise of Stimulus Helps Steady the Euro

Market Drivers August 19, 2019 EUR rebounds to 1,1100 onn German stimulus talk Risk trades better Nikkei 0.71% Dax 0.84% UST 10Y 1.58% Oil $55/bbl Gold $1507/oz BTCUSD $10750 Europe and Asia: EUR CPI North America: No Data FX markets were steady at the start of the trading week with risk assets bid up slightly as equities posted nearly 1% gains in Japan and Europe. With economic calendar essentially barren and no new headlines to drive trade most of the majors remained in steady ranges...

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Will EUR/USD Break 1.10?

Will EUR/USD Break 1.10? Daily FX Market Roundup August It has been a great week for the US dollar which recovered against all of the major currencies with the exception of sterling, which coasted on stronger UK data. The dollar’s rally was driven primarily by better than expected US data. Retail sales doubled expectations while year over year CPI growth edged closer to the central bank’s 2% target. These reports validate Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent comments about the...

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The Rebound in the Pound Continues

Market Drivers August 16, 2019 EUR hits a 2 week low Pound rises above 1.2100 Nikkei 0.06% Dax 0.96% UST 10Y 1.56% Oil $55/bbl Gold $1507/oz BTCUSD $10000 Europe and Asia: No data North America: USD Building Permits/Starts 8:30 USD U of M 10:00 Financial markets started the final day of the week in a decidedly better mood with risk on flows all across equity markets as sentiment stabilized a bit. The dollar was stronger against both the euro and the yen while commodity pairs held steady...

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USDJPY Drops as US Data Beats but Fed Still Needs to Ease

USDJPY Drops as US Data Beats but Fed Still Needs to Ease Daily FX Market Roundup August The most important piece of US data scheduled for release this week was retail sales and even though consumer spending doubled expectations, investors shrugged off the news. For our readers, this should not be a surprise because yesterday we said nothing matters more than trade tensions, recession risks and global uncertainty. Even if consumer spending soars, the Federal Reserve will still need to...

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