Tuesday , July 27 2021
Home / Tag Archives: US Economy

Tag Archives: US Economy

25/6/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

Trump cheers today's unemployment figures... and... Week of June 13th non-seasonally adjusted new unemployment claims were revised up to 1,463,363, from 1,433,027 published a week ago.First estimate for the week of June 20th came in at 1,457,373.Total initial unemployment claims filed so far during the COVID19 pandemic now sit at a massive, gargantuan 43,303,196, while estimated jobs losses (we only have official data for these through May, so using June unemployment claims to factor an...

Read More »

18/6/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

Weekly data for initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 13, 2020 is out, so here are the updated 'America's Scariest Charts':Index of employment, benchmarked to the pre-recession peak employment: Estimated total non-farm payrolls: And initial unemployment claims, half-year running sum: Today's initial unemployment claims came in at 1,561,267 for the week ending June 6, 2020 (final estimate), slightly up on previous preliminary estimate. For the week ending June 13, 2020,...

Read More »

11/6/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

The latest data on initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 6, 2020 is out today (release here: https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/061120.pdf). Initial unemployment claims are up another 1,537,120 in one week, though the rate of new additions is down slightly on the revised 1,620,010 new claims in the week ending May 30, 2020.Here is the summary of the claims and jobs losses during the current recession as compared to all previous post-WW2 recessions: Cumulative estimated jobs...

Read More »

5/6/20: “Incredible” Jobs Report Meets Reality

Some updates on the jobs report this morning for the U.S.Political reaction: Reality bites: New initial unemployment claims last week: 1,603,000. Putting this into perspective: Which brings latest non-farm payrolls figures back to 1Q 2000 levels: So, yeah, right, "tremendous" or put differently, we have 20 years worth of jobs destroyed. Non-farm payrolls increase of 2,509,000 is a good thing at the tail end of May, but the average weekly new unemployment claims increases from March...

Read More »

26/5/20: COVID19 Impact on Travel and Consumer Demand

Some dire numbers from Factset on changes in consumer preferences / sentiment through March-April 2020: "According to The Conference Board, consumer confidence has weakened significantly with the overall index falling from 118.8 in March to 86.9 in April, the lowest reading since June 2014."  "... older Americans (aged 55 and over) are much less optimistic than survey respondents under 55. This poses a problem as we look to economic recovery... [as] households in which the head...

Read More »

15/5/20: Generational Effects of Ultra Low Interest Rates

Just because jobs are so plentiful and careers are so rewarding in terms of potential growth in life cycle income. the Millennials are really cheering their future in the Social Mobility Central, the US of A... oh, wait, sorry, theatre of absurd is so 1990s...Here is the chart showing returns on savings for the already financially-distressed younger generations, updated through March 2020: Things are ugly. In March 2020, retail nominal deposit rates for 3 months-duration Certificates of...

Read More »

9/5/20: Some uncomfortable facts on the U.S. wealth distribution since 1989

The distributional effects of COVID19 pandemic impact on the labour markets in the U.S. will likely result in a massive debasement of the national wealth shares of the 'Main Street' segment of American society (the 90 percent) and a further increases in the national wealth share of the top 10 percent. So much is rather clear from the data on the labour markets (e.g.: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/8520-path-of-tornado-us-labour-force.html).But this process is not a unique...

Read More »

7/5/20: No Value in Them, Stonks

No, folks, the markets are still not in line with fundamentals: And that applies to all three sets of fundamentals: pre-COVID19 conditions in the underlying economy (secular stagnation), during-COVID19 collapse of the economy, and post-COVID19 expectations for the economy.Which, of course, explains why Buffett sees no opportunities for buying, given the above chart is one of his favourite indicators of value.

Read More »