Friday , October 30 2020
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

The S&P 500’s Latest Slide Vs. Rolling 1-Year Returns

Whenever breathless headlines shout danger and destruction for the stock market, my first reaction is to fire up R to update the perspective on the performance trend. After yesterday’s sharp correction in the S&P 500, which extends the recent downturn and leaves the index at a one-month low, it’s time again for a reality check if only to keep behavioral risk from running amuck. There are many ways to focus on signal and minimize noise when assessing market activity, but I like...

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Macro Briefing: 29 Oct 2020

Supreme Court OKs ballot extensions In Pennsylvania and North Carolina: NPRThree dead in terrorism attack in France: CNBCEurope issues warnings for health care system as coronavirus surges: APBig-Tech CEOs debate with Senators in hearing over free-speech issues: WSJUS states face biggest cash crunch since Great Depression: WSJRecord gain expected in today’s US GDP report for Q3: ReutersThe ‘nightmare scenario’–a long, contested US election outcome–is a risk: PSUS trade gap in goods...

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Africa, China Stocks Lead Global Equity Markets Bounce

Since global markets plunged during the coronavirus crash in March, all the world’s major equity regions have posted sharp rebounds. Leading the way: shares in Africa, followed by China and US stocks, based on a set of publicly traded funds through Oct. 27. Using the US market’s trough as a baseline (Mar. 23, 2020), VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK) is enjoying a first-place increase with a 55.5% surge. Stocks in Africa may be overlooked by most investors, but the oversight...

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Macro Briefing: 28 Oct 2020

US coronavirus hospitalizations surge: ReutersCovid-19 cases spike in swing states that will likely decide election: CNBCUnrest in Philadelphia continues after police fatally shot a black man: BBCPre-election voting at 50%-plus of ballots cast in 2016 election: CNNGermany considers shutting bars and restaurants for one month: BBGIs the struggling rental market creating the next housing crisis? WSJConsumer Confidence Index for US ticks down in October: MWUS consumer confidence falls...

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Strong Rebound Expected For This Week’s US Q3 GDP Report

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is on track to report that the economy posted a strong rebound in the third quarter in Thursday’s initial GDP estimate (Oct. 29). Most economists and nowcasting models are estimating a dramatic, perhaps record-setting increase in gross domestic product (GDP). There’s still uncertainty about Q4’s outlook, but confidence is high that this week’s GDP data will confirm that the economy mounted a dramatic rebound after Q2’s record loss. Output for...

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Macro Briefing: 27 Oct 2020

Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court: CNBCSupreme Court: Wisconsin mail-in ballots valid only if received by Nov 3: CNNRussian air strikes in Syria kill 50-plus Turkish-backed fighters: BBCChina’s Ant Group expected to raise $34 billion in record IPO: WSJPandemic moves Eurozone banks to tighten access to credit: ReutersUS new home sales slipped in Sep but remain strong: MWDallas Fed Mfg Index: Manufacturing Expands for fifth month in Oct: DFChicago Fed Nat’l Activity...

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Emerging Markets And Junk Bonds ex-US Led Gains Last Week

Shares and bonds in emerging markets, along with high-yield bonds ex-US, led returns for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of ETFs. Buoyed by a weak US Dollar Index, which is close to a 2-1/2 low, foreign markets generally led trading action for the week through Friday, Oct. 23. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Shares (VWO) led the gainers with a 1.4% increase. The rise lifted VWO to its highest close since early 2018. Notably, the third-best performer last...

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Macro Briefing: 26 Oct 2020

Europe imposes new Covid-19 restrictions as infections rise: WSJFive aides to VP Pence test positive for coronavirus: CNNInvestors consider last week’s rise in bond yields to 4-month high: CNBCChina to impose sanctions on several US firms over arms sales to Taiwan: BBGHouse Speaker Pelosi waiting for new stimulus counteroffer from WH: BBGMomentum factor weaker than it appears, say academics: II200,000-plus lose power in Northern Calif ahead of raging wildfires: NBCGerman business...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Should Happen? What Will Happen?

We have a big economic calendar, with featuring reports on sentiment, personal income and spending, and an especially interesting first estimate of Q3 GDP. The election campaign continues at high intensity and the COVID news grabs daily headlines. It is a huge week for corporate earnings, an important independent read on the economy. None of these stories will dominate, allowing investors to choose their own focus. In my continuing effort to call attention to the truly important stories, I...

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