Wednesday , October 16 2019
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

US Bond Market’s Resilience Shines On

The long-running bull market in bonds continues to defy bearish forecasts, as shown by a set of exchange-traded funds. Positive year-to-date performance in all the major corners of fixed income continues to offer a stark counterpoint to analysts who expect trouble. Long-term corporate bonds continue to lead the field by a wide margin for 2019 results. Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT) is up 20.9% for the year through yesterday’s close (Oct. 15). The gain far outpaces...

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Macro Briefing | 16 October 2019

Warren is focus of attacks at Democratic debate: CNBCVP Pence, Sec. of State Pompeo in Turkey today to push for Syrian ceasefire: FoxUS indicts Turkey’s 2nd-largest bank on evading Iran sanctions: NY TimesChina criticizes House bill that focuses on Hong Kong: ReutersDoubt hangs over China’s promise to buy more US farm products: WSJBrexit talks stall over familiar stumbling blocks: CNBCUpbeat corporate earnings help raise US stock market to 3-week high: MWIMF forecasts global growth...

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Watch This [WeWork] Space

15 Oct – 08:14:04 PM [RTRS] (9984.T) – WITHOUT ADDITIONAL FUNDING, WEWORK IS POISED TO RUN OUT OF CASH BY MID-NOVEMBER – CNBC — Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) October 16, 2019 A very smart friend of mine thinks WeWork could be the Lehman-like trigger that causes risk premiums, including equity,  to blow out.  Jamie to the rescue with a $5 billion line of credit? And to think investors almost got stuffed with what was originally valued close to a $50 billion IPO of this...

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Brexit Market Rockin’

The PredictIt market on a Brexit by November 1st is up over 50 percent in the past 24 hours. The Rules Prior to 12:00:01 a.m. November 1, 2019 London time, the United Kingdom shall exit the European Union. – PredictIt Driven by a tape with the following headlines, this one from the WSJ. Still, the market is only pricing around a 30 percent probability of an October 31 Brexit, which may be due to the potential for a temporary extension of the deadline to conclude negotiations. We don’t...

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Estimating Recession Risk Isn’t Getting Any Easier

Every recession is different and the next one, whenever it strikes, will likely continue the tradition. As a Bloomberg column reminded last week, the risk factors that may be aligning to deliver the next contraction are an unusual mix. “This won’t be your father’s recession — if indeed the U.S. ends up tumbling into one,” Bloomberg’s Rich Miller writes. Traditionally, US downturns are home-grown and household-led, triggered by spikes in interest rates and fueled by the...

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Macro Briefing | 15 October 2019

Trump announces sanctions on Turkey, demands Syria ceasefire: ReutersVP Pence headed to Turkey for negotiations: MWDoubts follow Trump’s trade deal with China: The HillEU’s chief negotiator: Brexit deal ‘still possible’: BBCTurkish lira rises despite Trump’s new economic sanctions on Turkey: CNBCChina’s factory deflation ticked deeper into the red in September: BloombergGerman investor sentiment remains weak in October via ZEW survey: BloombergNY Fed Mfg Index edges up in Oct,...

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How Far Can The Stock Market Run?

Very little to the upside.  Very much to the downside. Macro Valuation Metrics Lots of incoming over our S&P Shooting Star post, most of which can mostly be summed up to the effect, “Why so bearish?” Seriously?   Our predisposition to the market is always anchored in time tested valuation metrics, which are hard to manipulate.  That is why we like market capitalization deflated by some macro variables, such as nominal GDP or wages. Micro measures, such as Price-to-Earnings are way...

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Commodities And Foreign Stocks Led Global Markets Last Week

Commodities prices rebounded last week after a run of declines, posting the strongest weekly performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. Foreign stocks were in close pursuit for the performance leadership during the trading week ended Oct. 11. A key driver in last week’s revival in commodities prices: news of progress in US-China trade talks, which was a factor in boosting crude oil prices – the main component for iShares S&P GSCI...

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Macro Briefing | 14 October 2019

Trump expected to impose new sanctions on Turkey for Syria invasion: ReutersChina requests more talks before signing latest trade deal with US: BBGWill the latest US-China trade truce boost global growth? Maybe not: WSJChina will be a factor in Q3 earnings that are starting to roll in: MWHouse intel chairman: whistleblower testimony may not be needed: The HillEurozone industrial output rebounded in August: ReutersBrexit deal remains long shot as Oct 31 deadline nears: CNBCChina’s...

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Brexit Market Plummets – “The Clock Is Ticking”

After negotiations in Brussels failed to produce a  breakthrough, the odds at PredictIt of an official Brexit by November 1 tanked into the teens on big volume.  The market was only pricing around a 30 percent probability of a deal by October 31,  however. Here’s some commentary by the FT, Boris Johnson’s hopes of sealing a Brexit deal in time for a critical EU summit later this week were in jeopardy on Sunday evening after two days of intensive negotiations left Brussels baffled about...

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