Monday , June 17 2019
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Weighing the Week Ahead: A De Facto Expansion of the Fed’s Mandate?

The economic calendar is normal, highlighting housing data, leading indicators, and the FOMC decision. The pundit conversation remains all about the Fed, but a new angle is getting more attention. The talking heads will not raise the question explicitly – sticking to personal ideas of what the Fed should be doing. The implication? Are we witnessing a de facto expansion of the Fed’s dual mandate? In last week’s installment of WTWA, I guessed that, despite the economic data, the punditry...

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Book Bits | 15 June 2019

● Equity Smart Beta and Factor Investing for Practitioners By Khalid Ghayur, et al.Summary via publisher (Wiley) Equity Smart Beta and Factor Investing for Practitioners offers a hands-on guide to the popular investment opportunities of smart beta, which is one of the fastest growing areas within the global equity asset class. This well-balanced book is written in accessible and understandable terms and contains an in-depth manual filled with analytical information and new ideas. The...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Past Week

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Daily Blog The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Podcast Interview Of The Week Our Best Tweets Of The Week Since 1995, 25 years ago, corporate income has tripled while taxes paid to the...

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Simulating Survey-Based Consensus Forecasts With Econometrics

Surveying economists for their projections on a variety of economic and financial indicators and aggregating the results has wide appeal, and for good reason. The wisdom of the crowd, such as it is, tends to be more reliable through time compared with any one forecaster. But there are challenges with standard consensus forecasts—challenges that can minimized if not solved with econometric-based applications. The challenges include the time and expense in surveying and...

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Macro Briefing: 14 June 2019

US Secretary of State blames Iran for attacks on tankers: CNNIran says it’s not responsible for tanker attacks: ReutersIEA predicts global oil demand will fall to lowest level in years: CNBCTrump and Warren: a pair of economic populists: BloombergChina’s mfg growth rate slowed to 17-year low in May: ReutersGold rises to 14-month high: WSJUS mfg job growth accelerated in first 2 yrs of Trump admin: EIGImport prices for US fell in May–biggest decline in five months: ReutersUS jobless...

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Treasury Market’s Inflation Outlook Tumbles

The Treasury market continues to downgrade US inflation expectations, which suggests that the case is strengthening for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The widely followed spread for nominal and inflation-indexed 5-year Notes fell to 1.53% yesterday (June 12), based on daily data published by Treasury.gov. That’s the lowest implied inflation rate for this maturity since January 3. It’s also a forecast that’s well below the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target and the core rate of...

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Macro Briefing: 13 June 2019

Beijing will likely prevail in Hong Kong despite protests: NY TimesSmaller protests continue in Hong Kong on Thursday: ReutersTrump: US will deploy 1,000 troops to Poland: BBCOil prices rise after tanker attack in Gulf of Oman: BloombergEurope’s industrial output fell again in April: ReutersBusiness inflation expectations hold at 2.0% in 6th Fed district: Atlanta FedUS core consumer inflation ticks down to 2.0% annual pace in May:...

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Stock Exchange: Do You Evaluate Your Trading Mistakes?

The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week, we do the following: discuss an important issue for traders;highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas;feature advice from top traders and writers; andprovide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in! Review: Lemons, Lemonade or Rip Van Winkle? Our...

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S&P500 Key Levels

After rallying 6.66 percent from the bear trap low last Monday to yesterday’s high of 2910.16,  the S&P is now consolidating that big move.  The ‘bots have mastered the art of the bear trap.   F**k wads! The 50-day moving average held today, which is positive.   The 2900 level seems to be a big number and a key Fibo retracement of this recent 7.63 percent sell-off.  A close above 2900 greatly increases the odds the 2954.13 all-time high will be taken out. Note, our target for the...

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