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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Will Consumers And Services Keep The US Out Of Recession?

The manufacturing sector continues to be a drag on economic growth in the US and around the world. Consumer spending and the services sector have been counterweights. But new survey data for August suggests that services may be vulnerable. Weakness in manufacturing and services appears to be creating the biggest threat to the economy since the expansion started ten years ago. The US Composite Output Index, a proxy for GDP, slipped this month to 50.9, just above the neutral 50...

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Macro Briefing | 23 August 2019

Fed Chairman Powell’s speech today will be widely analyzed: ReutersManufacturing activity continues to soften around the world: WSJWill G7 nations unite to combat slowing global growth? BloombergIs the Trump administration planning a new tax cut? WSJUS Leading Economic Index rose 0.5% in July: CBUS labor market still on track for growth via jobless claims: CNBCUS growth weakens to a crawl in Aug via PMI survey data: IHS Markit...

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Deep-Value ETF Report: Biggest Discounts In Commodities, Energy

The evolution of Mr. Market’s discounting machine unfolds at a glacial pace these days. If you surveyed the ETF landscape a year ago, for instance (as The Capital Spectator did here), and compared it with the latest review (as presented below), you’ll find that a familiar cast of characters populate the lowest realms of discounted pricing: commodities and various slices of energy shares. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose! The to and fro of value priced assets isn’t...

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Macro Briefing | 22 August 2019

The stakes are high if a US-Eurozone trade war starts: CNBCWhat tools are left for policy makers to juice US growth? WSJGerman manufacturers fear country’s slipping into recession: BloombergJapan’s economic growth picked up to 8-month high in Aug: IHS MarkitGroup of Seven summit set to end without joint communique: CNBCFed minutes show debate over cutting rates more aggressively: ReutersUS existing home sales rose more than expected in July: CNBCEurozone PMI: economic growth remains...

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Tech And Real Estate Remain The Red-Hot Equity Sector Leaders

If you’re wondering why certain US equity strategies are outperforming this year, there’s a decent chance that overweighting technology and real estate sectors has been the secret sauce for success. Similarly, relatively weak results are probably linked to decisions to underweight these slices of the US equity market. Indeed, shares of tech and property shares continue to lead among the major US equity sectors year to date—by wide margins, based on performances via a set of...

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Macro Briefing | 21 August 2019

A payroll tax cut is on Trump’s mind: CNBCTrump cancels trip to Denmark, which says Greenland isn’t for sale: CNNTrump tells NRA no plans for background checks on guns: WaPoNo sign of Brexit breakthrough between UK and European Union: BBCChina confirms it’s detained a British consulate worker based in Hong Kong: CNNRussia says it doesn’t have to share data on nuclear accident: ABCUK budget deficit soars in preparation for Oct 31 Brexit: BloombergUS companies repurchase shares at...

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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 August 2019

Recession forecasts have been mounting lately, largely due to inverted yield curves. But a broad read on the hard data has yet to throw in the towel. US economic growth is slow and may get slower in the months ahead, but for the moment the odds still favor expansion for the immediate future. The current macro profile for the US is basically unchanged from last month’s update. On a positive note, all of the positive trending indicators tracked on these pages in June remained...

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Macro Briefing | 20 August 2019

Trump administration considering new policies to support economy: NY TimesWH spokesman says payroll tax cut not under consideration: CNBCGroup of states ready to start antitrust probe of big tech: WSJHong Kong consulate worker reportedly detained in China: BloombergPimco warns: breakthrough on US-China trade could sharply raise yields: FTEurozone inflation slowed to +1.0% annual rate in July, lowest in two years: MW10yr/2yr yield curve holds at mildly positive spread for 2nd day...

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Stock Exchange: Are You Paying Attention To Market Conditions?

The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week, we do the following: Discuss an important issue for traders,highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas,feature advice from top traders and writers, andprovide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in! Review: Beginning Or End Of The Sell Off? Our...

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Moving Into Resistance

We see a lot of bears wearing the above Tee these days. This post will be short and sweet as we are getting ready to board a long flight and will be radio silent until next month. As we expected last Thursday, It wouldn’t surprise us if the market begins to internalize our analysis about the yield curve and then deludes itself into thinking it can have relatively strong growth with long-term interest rates heading toward zero.  A nutcracking short-covering rally would ensue.  – GMM,...

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