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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Coronavirus Forecast Update: 29 March 2020

Revised data for CapitalSpectator.com’s coronavirus (Covid-19) forecast, based on an 8-model combination, still points to a rise in the number of global reported cases (via the median point forecast). At some point, when the reported cases reflect a tendency to print below the median forecast, the downside bias will be welcome news since it suggests that the trend is peaking. Unfortunately, there’s no sign of the apex yet using this framework. Today’s projection indicates that...

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Florida Should Quarantine Itself

After leaving Florida’s beaches open for spring break and allowing the Covidiots to return home throughout the country to infect countless others, Governor DeSantis is still exhibiting a colossal failure of leadership.  The third Tweet is a perfect example of why the country needs a nationwide lockdown. Until then, forget about even thinking about sustained recovery anytime soon. We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.  – Ben Franklin  ONE...

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Book Bits | 28 March 2020

● Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity By Michael J. HowellSummary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan) Economic cycles are driven by financial flows, namely quantities of savings and credits, and not by high street inflation or interest rates. Their sweeping destructive powers are expressed through Global Liquidity, a $130 trillion pool of footloose cash. Global Liquidity describes the gross flows of credit and international capital feeding through the world’s banking systems...

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Endless austerity, state and local edition

Brian Nichols of the essential Employ America has a useful, if depressing, roundup of the coming wave of state-local austerity. Some highlights: Ohio, Nevada and Pennsylvania have already announced hiring freezes; Ohio is also looking at a 20 percent across the board cut in state spending, while Virginia has canceled planned raises for teachers. Many cities, including New York, St. Paul and New Orleans, are laying off public employees. And as I noted in my last post, New York  State is...

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Research Review | 27 March 2020 | Coronavirus

Government Equity Investments in Coronavirus Rescues: Why, How, When? William L. Megginson (U. of Oklahoma) and Veljko Fotak (SUNY at Buffalo)March 25, 2020The coronavirus pandemic has led to a “great shutdown” whose ultimate impact on the US economy is hard to predict. What is already clear is that government intervention at an unprecedented scale is forthcoming. A rescue/stimulus package worth $2 trillion, or 10% of US GDP, is being approved at the time of writing. We argue that...

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Macro Briefing | 27 March 2020

US now leads world in reported coronavirus cases: WSJ Massive coronavirus relief bill awaits approval in House today: Reuters Who will get stimulus checks in the $2 trillion bill awaiting approval? USA Today US national debt is set to soar: NY Times US dollar on track for worst week since 2009: Bloomberg Endless quantitative easing is crushing traditional bond strategies: BBG Short-covering and rebalancing may explain this week’s rebound in stocks: MW US jobless claims posted massive...

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Daily News Op-Ed: Why Is Governor Cuomo Still Trying to Cut Medicaid?

(My Roosevelt colleague Naomi Zewde and I have an op-ed in the March 26 Daily News, criticizing Governor Cuomo’s plans to push ahead with cuts to state Medicaid spending despite the epidemic.) Last week, as the coronavirus shut down much of New York, the state announced a bold plan to drastically cut funding for the state’s hard-pressed health care providers. That’s right: As the coronavirus crisis escalates across New York State, Gov. Cuomo is proposing to slash funding for those at...

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Will Trillions Of Dollars In Stimulus Raise Inflation?

Before the coronavirus shock, inflation in the US appeared tame by the standard measures. But the macroeconomic earth has shifted in recent weeks to combat the fallout from Covid-19. The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at...

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Macro Briefing | 26 March 2020

$2 trillion US economic stimulus package expected to become law today: Politico What’s in the massive stimulus bill? TH Pressure builds on Trump for gov’t intervention for ventilator output: BBG US jobless claims filings expected to surge in today’s report: Reuters What are the risks to Trump’s preference for reopening US by Easter? CNN Should you expect to become immune to coronavirus at some point? NY Times Economic assumptions upended amid coronavirus crisis: BBG Consumer...

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