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Tag Archives: Turkey

Dollar Starts the Week Bid ahead of the FOMC

Overview: Equities, bonds, and the dollar begin the new week on a firm note.  Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and New Zealand equities advanced in the Asia Pacific region.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline, and US futures are 0.25%-0.35% higher.  The US 10-year yield is a little softer at 1.48%. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, and near 0.71%, the UK Gilt's yield is at a three-month low.  The dollar is rising against all the major currencies and is...

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Central Bank Fest

Next week is the last big week of the year, and what a week it will be:  Five major central banks meet and at least nine from emerging market countries.  Norway's Norges Bank is the most likely major central bank to hike its key (deposit) rate (December 16).  It would be the second hike of the year.  The economy is enjoying a solid recovery, and headline inflation rose to 4.6% in November, its fastest pace since 2008.  The underlying rate, which Norway adjusts for tax changes and excludes...

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Turkey gets a Reprieve before US Thanksgiving, but Capital Strike may not be Over

Overview:  The dramatic collapse of the Turkish lira was like an accident one could not help look at, but it was not an accident, but the result of a disregard for the exchange rate and compromised institutions.  The lira was off around 15% at its worst yesterday, before settling 11.2% lower.  After falling for 11 sessions, it has steadied today (~2.7%)  but the capital strike may not be over.  On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered the 25 bp rate hike and seemed to...

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Euro Bounces Back, but the Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Overview:  The US dollar's sharp upside momentum stalled yesterday near JPY115 and after the euro met (and surpassed) a key retracement level slightly below $1.1300.  Led by the Antipodean currencies today, the greenback is mostly trading with a heavier bias.  Among the majors, helped by a steadying of US yields, the yen is soft.  In the emerging market space, the Turkish lira continues its headlong plunge while the yuan softened and the Mexican peso is off.  Hungary's central bank surprised...

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US Retail Sales and Industrial Output to Accelerate; China not so Much

At the halfway point of Q4, the markets' focus is on three things:  inflation, growth, and central banks' response. With US and Chinese October inflation readings behind us, the focus shifts to the real economy's performance, the world's two largest economies reporting retail sales and industrial production figures.   Helped by stronger auto sales, the first increase in six months, US retail sales likely turned in another solid showing of around 0.8%, the average pace in August and...

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What Might it Take for the Fed to Deliver a Hawkish Tapering Announcement?

Overview: With the FOMC's decision several hours away, the dollar is trading lower against nearly all the major currencies.  The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone are leading.  The euro, yen, and sterling are posting minor gains (less than 0.1%).  Most of the freely liquid and accessible emerging market currencies are also firmer.  The Turkish lira is a notable exception.  The decline in the core inflation and a smaller than expected rise in the headline pace embolden officials for another...

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What Might it Take for the Fed to Deliver a Hawkish Tapering Announcement?

Overview: With the FOMC's decision several hours away, the dollar is trading lower against nearly all the major currencies.  The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone are leading.  The euro, yen, and sterling are posting minor gains (less than 0.1%).  Most of the freely liquid and accessible emerging market currencies are also firmer.  The Turkish lira is a notable exception.  The decline in the core inflation and a smaller than expected rise in the headline pace embolden officials for another...

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Strong Earnings and Easing of (Some) Political Tensions Bolster Sentiment

Overview:  Helped by new record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials, constructive earnings, and an easing of political tensions, risk appetites are robust today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index recouped yesterday's losses plus more as the large equity markets in the region, but China and Hong Kong rose, led by a more than 1% gain in Tokyo.  European shares are rallying, and the Stoxx 600 is posting gains for the ninth session in the last 11 and is at its best level since early...

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Strong Earnings and Easing of (Some) Political Tensions Bolster Sentiment

Overview:  Helped by new record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials, constructive earnings, and an easing of political tensions, risk appetites are robust today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index recouped yesterday's losses plus more as the large equity markets in the region, but China and Hong Kong rose, led by a more than 1% gain in Tokyo.  European shares are rallying, and the Stoxx 600 is posting gains for the ninth session in the last 11 and is at its best level since early...

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Dollar Slumps

Overview:  While equities and bonds are firmer, it is the dollar's sell-off that stands out today.  The greenback has retreated broadly.    The euro is trading above the previous week's high for the first time in over a month, and the dollar was pushed back below JPY114.00 in early European turnover. The Chinese yuan is at four-month highs. The Antipodean and Scandi currencies are leading the move against the dollar among the major currencies. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is...

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