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Tag Archives: Trump Administration

31/7/19: Fed rate cut won’t move the needle on ‘Losing Globally’ Trade Wars impacts

Dear investors, welcome to the Trump Trade Wars, where 'winning bigly' is really about 'losing globally': As the chart above, via FactSet, indicates, companies in the S&P500 with global trading exposures are carrying the hefty cost of the Trump wars. In 2Q 2019, expected earnings for those S&P500 firms with more than 50% revenues exposure to global (ex-US markets) are expected to fall a massive 13.6 percent. Revenue declines for these companies are forecast at 2.4%.This is hardly...

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18/6/19: Obama v Trump: Jobs Creation

Who had the more impressive numbers in terms of jobs creation: President Obama or President Trump? This question is non-trivial. For a number of reason.Take first the superficially-simple comparative:On a y/y basis, average monthly change in total non-farm payrolls under the last 28 months of President Obama Administration was 2,704,000 using non-seasonally-adjusted data. For the first 28 months of the Trump Administration, the same figure was 2,394,000. So by this metric, things were...

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3/6/19: What Customs and Border Protection Data Says About Illegal Migration and Crime

The Customs and Border Protection, a U.S. agency responsible for border protection, publishes handy stats on its enforcement actions "related to arrests of criminal aliens for Fiscal Years 2016 - 2018, and FY 2019 TD (to date) (October 1, 2018 - April 30, 2019)". Here is a link to the reported data: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/criminal-alien-statistics. A summary of all annual reports available so far is provided in the table below: Here are some...

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14/5/19: Agent Trumpovich Fails to Deliver… Again…

In the months following China's retaliatory introduction of tariffs on U.S. soybean exports, both traditional and social media were abuzz with the screeching sound of 'analysts' claiming that Trump Administration trade war with China is a boon to Vladimir Putin's Russian economy.Behold this from theVenerable CFR (albeit intellectually vulnerable): https://www.cfr.org/blog/trumps-trade-war-china-makes-russia-great-again and ...

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9/6/18: Misinformed and wrong: President Trump’s trade policy stance on the EU

I just posted on @twitter a short thread concerning the U.S.-EU trade and payments balances from 2003 through 2017 and a trend-based forecast for same out to 2021. The thread can be accessed here: https://twitter.com/GTCost/status/1005467563034152961.The key problem is that in his trade policy strategy, President Trump appears to be oblivious to several key factors that materially determine the true extent of imbalances the U.S. trade with the EU, including:Trade in services: while the...

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17/5/18: U.S. Labour Markets and the Trump Administration Record

The Global Macro Monitor have published an exhaustive study of the U.S. labour market trends over the first 15-16 months of the President Trump's tenure. The  post is long, brilliantly detailed, and empirically and intuitively flawless (yeah, I know, I don't think I ever used this descriptor of an economics research piece before). So read it in full here: https://macromon.wordpress.com/2018/05/15/deconstructing-the-u-s-jobs-market/.Top line conclusions are:Comparing the "first 15 [monthly]...

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Two Unfortunate, Untimely, And Telling Quotes

It is  hard to post this as we personally like the guy, think he is full of grace, a gentleman, and a public servant committed to civil discourse.   We need more of his likes in the public square. That said,  we would not want him as our doctor as he, we believe, is unqualified, just as we would not want a history major doing brain surgery on us. Unfortunately,  these two quotes are just a few of many that indicates his lack of understanding of the underlying dynamics of a very...

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