Wednesday , June 19 2019
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Tag Archives: trend

Technically Speaking: The Drums Of Trade War – Part Deux

In June of 2018, as the initial rounds of the “Trade War” were heating up, I wrote: “Next week, the Trump Administration will announce $50 billion in ‘tariffs’ on Chinese products. The trade war remains a risk to the markets in the short-term.” Of course, 2018 turned out to be a volatile year for investors which ended in the sell-off into Christmas Eve. As we have been writing for the last couple of weeks, the risks to the market have risen markedly as we head into the summer months. “It is a...

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Technically Speaking: “‘Trade War’ In May & Go Away.”

Over the weekend, President Trump decided to reignite the “trade war” with China with two incendiary tweets. Via WSJ: “In a pair of Twitter messages Sunday, Mr. Trump wrote he planned to raise levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% starting Friday, from 10% currently. He also wrote he would impose 25% tariffs ‘shortly’ on $325 billion in Chinese goods that haven’t yet been taxed. ‘The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate,’ the president...

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Pure Corruption

In December 1999, Princeton Professor Ben S. Bernanke wrote a relatively obscure paper largely denouncing the Bank of Japan’s shyness. Japan’s economy had by then been mired in its first Lost Decade, one which at that moment not everyone was sure should have been lost. It was fashionable at the time to pile on the BoJ. Dr. Bernanke argued for extreme aggressiveness, truly radical experimentation. Big problems require equally big solutions. These were necessary because of the huge scale of the...

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Correlation

Correlations among equities is rising, likely signaling a reboot of the reflation theme that drove the market through much of 2017. Note that correlations for commodities still remain low and may provide investors with some good diversification as well as a positive trend. The correlation figure measures how each asset return moves in relationship to the broader basket of asset returns listed on the X axis. When correlations are high or rising, it may indicate that economic...

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Correlation

Overall, we believe most asset classes have a lower long-term correlation than historical averages and has been relatively unchanged over the past several weeks. Without any changes in trend, it’s hard to draw any meaningful data from this data at this point. The correlation figure measures how each asset return moves in relationship to the broader basket of asset returns listed on the X axis. When correlations are high or rising, it may indicate that economic movements and...

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Technically Speaking: The Evaporation Of Risk

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. Please send any comments or questions directly to me via Email, Facebook or Twitter. On Monday, the markets broke out, again, to all-time highs. This is not surprising and something that I noted over the weekend. To wit:  “Stepping back from the sector-specific action, if you only looked at the S&P 500 to judge what...

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Technically Speaking: A Shot Across The Bow For “Passive Indexers”

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. Please send any comments or questions directly to me via Email, Facebook or Twitter. I wanted to pick up on a discussion I started in this past weekend’s missive, with respect to both Friday’s rout in technology stocks as well as Monday’s rather nasty open. While the issue seemed to be a simple short-term rotation in...

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Technically Speaking: 3-Bullish & 3-Bearish Charts

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. Please send any comments or questions directly to me via Email, Facebook or Twitter. As I discussed in this past weekend’s missive, the breakout of the market to new highs keeps our allocation model nearly fully allocated. However, while we are long, we are still holding onto a little larger than normal cash pile, and...

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Technically Speaking: The Formula Behind “Buy High/Sell Low”

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. Please send any comments or questions directly to me via Email, Facebook or Twitter. With the markets closed on Monday, there really isn’t much to update you on “technically” from this past weekend’s missive. The important point, if you haven’t read it, was: “The failure of the market to rotate to the “risk on” trade...

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Technically Speaking: Bulls Struggle With Bearish Internals

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. Please send any comments or questions directly to me via Email, Facebook or Twitter. In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact that despite the bullish “exuberance” of market participants, the underlying internal deterioration has continued. To wit: “Furthermore, the underlying internals have continued to...

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