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Tag Archives: Trade Wars

Insight Conversation: Christopher LaFemina, Jefferies LLC

Christopher LaFemina is managing director, global metals and mining equities research at Jefferies LLC, a global investment bank and financial services company. He talked to Diana Kinch and Paul Hickin about metals market trends as the COVID-19 crisis gradually eases, and how the industry might develop in the longer term. Christoper LaFemina, Jefferies LLC Metals prices have been on a rollercoaster since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. Many metals have now moved into a surplus, which...

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US Trade In December Was Too Much Oil

After a stunningly bad October and November, the Census Bureau reports US imports rebounded in December 2019 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Having fallen below $200 billion for the first time since October 2017, total imports of goods rose to $205.8 billion in the final month of last year. However, most of that increase, two-thirds of it, was due to “industrial supplies” meaning crude oil. The benchmark WT price had been, on average, $59.82 in December compared to $56.97 in November and...

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15/1/20: What Trade Deal Phase 1/N Says About the Four Horsemen of Apocalypse

Phase 1 of N of the "Greatest Trade Deal" that is "easiest to achieve' by the 'stablest Genius' is hitting the newsflows today. Which brings us to two posts worth reading on the subject:Post 1 via Global Macro Monitor: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/01/15/phase-1-of-potemkin-trade-deal-signed-sealed-and-yet-to-deliver/ is as always (from that source) excellent. Key takeaways are:"We never believed for one moment that China would cave on any of the big issues, such as restructuring...

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10/1/20: U.S. Tariffs on European Wines: Inflicting Self-Harm

Next week, the  Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to make a determination on the potential imposition of an up to 100% tariff on imports of wine from Europe. Which is a bad thing for the overall state of the global trade, bad news for the European producers of wine, bad news for the American consumers and their European counterparts, and bad news for the U.S. wine industry. But 'bad things' do not stop there. There will be costs imposed on restaurants and bars. There will...

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The Word Is: Prolongada

You don’t have to tell Mexico the bad news about how US auto sales ended 2019. They already know; in fact, knew ahead of time. Production workers who should be busy building more and more new cars for sale outside of Mexico, particularly for prospective American owners, must instead be worried if they’ll still have a job if things go on like this. The global economy is on the mend, they say. Yet, there are so many signs that it isn’t. In a lot of important places, getting worse sometimes...

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The Real Trade Dilemma

When I write that there are no winners around the world, what I mean is more comprehensive than just the trade wars. On that one narrow account, of course there are winners and losers. The Chinese are big losers, as the Census Bureau numbers plainly show (as well as China’s own). But even the winners of the trade wars find themselves wondering where all the spoils are. They may be winners because of it but somehow they all still end up in the losing column. Late in 2018, in response to the...

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Commodities and energy in 2019, in infographics

In a volatile year for commodities and energy, S&P Global Platts’ news, pricing and analytics teams explored many of the biggest themes and trends through infographics. Here are a selection. Tariff disputes weigh on commodities trade After around two years of trade tensions between the US and China, S&P Global Platts analyzed the impact on global product flows. Click for full-size infographic   How to replace Iranian oil? After US sanctions on Iran tightened with the...

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18/12/19: Winning Trade [Price] Wars: Updated Data

With the recent announcement of the so-called Phase 1 'Trade Deal' with China, the U.S. President has claimed that his Administration is winning the trade war with Beijing and that the U.S. economy is gaining from the rounds and rounds of tariffs and trade restrictions imposed on its bilateral trade with China.Here is a tangible set of metrics showing the cost indices for U.S. trade (exports and imports) over the period of President Trump's tenure, compared to the track record of his...

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More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized

For US importers, October is their month. And it makes perfect sense how it would be. With the Christmas season about to kick into full swing each and every November, the time for retailers to stock up in hearty anticipation is in the weeks beforehand. The goods, a good many future Christmas presents, find themselves in transit from all over the world during the month of October. For the Census Bureau’s trade data, that means this is the month that shines above all the rest. The greatest...

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Consistent Trade War Inconsistency Hides The Consistent Trend

You can see the pattern, a weathervane of sorts in its own right. Not for how the economy is actually going, mind you, more along the lines of how it is being perceived from the high-level perspective. The green light for “trade wars” in the first place was what Janet Yellen and Jay Powell had said about the economy. Because it was strong and accelerating, they said, the Trump administration gambled that such robust growth would insulate the US system from any fallout. Flush with confidence...

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