Saturday , October 31 2020
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Tag Archives: Trade War

Technically Speaking: The One Thing – Playing The “Bear Market” Rally.

Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019. “It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate ‘sub-prime’ debt (aka leveraged loans.) ‘Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky business debt over the past few years. The acronyms have changed a bit—’CLOs’ (collateralized loan obligations) instead of ‘CDOs’ (collateralized...

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Special Report: Panic Sets In As “Everything Must Go”

Note: All charts now updated for this mornings open. The following is a report we generate regularly for our RIAPRO Subscribers. You can try our service RISK-FREE for 30-Days. Headlines from the past four-days: Dow sinks 2,000 points in worst day since 2008, S&P 500 drops more than 7% Dow rallies more than 1,100 points in a wild session, halves losses from Monday’s sell-off Dow drops 1,400 points and tumbles into a bear market, down 20% from last month’s record close...

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“Phase 1” Of Potemkin Trade Deal Signed, Sealed, And Yet To Deliver

We have been busy collecting bets on the outcome of the U.S.-China Trade Deal. We never believed for one moment that China would cave on any of the big issues, such as restructuring its economy and any deal would be just some token political salad dressing for the 2020 election.  Most importantly, it moves the needle very little in bringing jobs back to the U.S. rust belt as promised.  The global manufacturing sector is in recession — though appears to be putting in a bottom —  as a...

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U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinking And It’s All China

JANUARY 7, 2020 — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.1 billion in November, down $3.9 billion from $46.9 billion in October, revised November exports were $208.6 billion, $1.4 billion more than October exports. November imports were $251.7 billion, $2.5 billion less than October imports. The November decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $3.9...

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“The Art Of The Deal” & How To Lose A “Trade War.”

This past Monday, on the #RealInvestmentShow, I discussed that it was exceedingly likely that Trump would delay, or remove, the tariffs which were slated to go into effect this Sunday, On Thursday, that is exactly what happened. Not only did the tariffs get delayed, but on Friday, it was reported that China and the U.S. reached “Phase One” of the trade deal, which included “some” tariff relief and agricultural purchases. To wit: “The U.S. plans to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods in phases, a...

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The Long-Term Damage Of The Trade War

“US farmers might not regain their market share even if a trade settlement is concluded with China.”  – South China Morning Post If you have been following the Global Macro Monitor over the past year, you know our thoughts on the trade war.  We have raised the concept of trade hysteresis in several posts, warning U.S. farmers may never get their foreign markets back in China, or even Japan and the other countries in the eleven-member Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after the United...

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Trade And Tariff Hysteresis

Hysteresis in the field of economics refers to an event in the economy that persists into the future, even after the factors that led to that event have been removed. – Investopedia I first heard the term hysteresis applied to trade and explained by a young Paul Krugman at a World Bank luncheon years ago.  Though he was using the exchange rate as the exerting force on import and export markets, he explained it in simple terms, If you put enough pressure on a spoon by bending it for a...

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Welcome To The Forever Trade War

Are you surprised?  We’re not (see our repost below). Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. #China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk but wait due to impeachment, US election. Also prioritize China economic support. — Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) November 18, 2019 Now markets will have to grapple with does Trump carry through with the December tariffs? If not, he looks...

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China Still Looking For A Rollback

We posted our,  Roll back: The Verb China Is Looking For,  two months ago and China is still looking for a rollback on some of the tariffs that have already been implemented. What President Trump said is not what the markets expect. But he said "the US hasn’t agreed to a rollback of tariffs". It's not a flat denial. What's certain is that if there's no rollback of tariffs, there will be no phase 1deal. https://t.co/fJEKz9hEFi — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) November 8, 2019 We wondered...

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