Tuesday , July 27 2021
Home / Tag Archives: total hours worked

Tag Archives: total hours worked

Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool

An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting more and more indications that the economy’s rebound from the depths of April/May slowed way down in and around June/July. That lowered trajectory, while still upward, isn’t nearly enough and it appears to continue all the way to the end of October.First alerted to this possibility by jobless claims because these figures are the closest to real-time...

Read More »

It Just Isn’t Enough

The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state. Government officials have decided to pause their efforts for two weeks so as to try and sort out what “might” be widespread fraud.The state is also using this time to get after a substantial backlog of previous initial claims yet to be processed. So, possibly fewer...

Read More »

Who’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker

The BLS’s payroll report draws most of the mainstream attention, with the exception of the unemployment rate (especially these days). The government designates the former as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) series, and it intends to measure factors like payrolls (obviously), wages, and earnings from the perspective of the employers, or establishments. The Establishment Survey.Its cousin is called the Household Survey, or CPS, the Current Population Survey, which comes at everything...

Read More »

Unfortunately Like Old Times: Back To Being The Star of the Payroll Show

The star of the show once again was the unemployment rate. Since the ratio is a byproduct of the Household Survey, not the Establishment Survey, that means the surprise upside in the other labor survey overshadowed the slowing rate of change in the payroll number everyone usually watches so much more closely. The headline figure gained +1.37mm payrolls (Est. Survey) in August 2020, though the private sector managed only +1.03mm of them (you’ve no doubt heard about ramping up Census hiring)....

Read More »

With These Numbers, No Wonder Jobless Claims

We have to be somewhat careful in making too much out of statistics taken at extreme times like these. Massive moves can trigger unreliable noise in them. The second quarter of 2020 qualifies in every possible way. And the numbers it has produced are certainly extreme.Late last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued its preliminary assessment of labor productivity during last quarter’s interruption. A key component in economic potential, the BLS tries to tease out some idea of it...

Read More »

A Second JOLTS

What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice. That’s what was so odd about 1930, as I wrote about last week. The stock market crash had happened during the prior October, but while that had meant panic on Wall Street generally speaking...

Read More »

Disposable (Employment) Figures

If last month’s payroll report was declared to be strong at +128k, then what would that make this month’s +266k? Epic? Heroic? The superlatives are flying around today, as you should expect. This Payroll Friday actually fits the times. It wasn’t great, they never really are nowadays (when you adjust for population and participation), but it was a good one nonetheless. November 2019, according to the BLS, was the first month since January to register better than +220k in payroll gains. That...

Read More »

For Labor And Recession, The Bad One

There’s a couple of different ways that Unit Labor Costs can rise. Or even surge. The first is the good way, the one we all want to see because it is consistent with the idea of an economy that is actually booming. If workers have become truly scarce as macro forces sustain actual growth such that all labor market slack is absorbed, then businesses have to compete for them bidding up the price of marginal labor. This is, of course, the exact scenario we’ve been constantly hearing about ever...

Read More »

Why The Japanese Are Suddenly Messing With YCC

While the world’s attention was fixated on US$ repo for once, the Bank of Japan held a policy meeting and turned in an even more “dovish” performance. Likely the global central bank plan had been to combine the Fed’s second rate cut with what amounted to a simultaneous Japanese pledge for more “stimulus” in October. Both of those followed closely an ECB which got itself back in the QE business once more. But all that likely coordinated “accommodation” was spoiled once the fed funds rate poked...

Read More »

Payroll Friday: This Is Bad, Folks

You never fixate on a single employment report. It is a lesson that Jay Powell may not have yet learned. Either that, or he was desperately grasping for straws. The Federal Reserve is trying to thread a very fine needle; on the one hand, the rate cuts. On the other, he doesn’t want them to become a catalyst for people to say, see the economy really is weak! That means he has to claim the rate cut is a big deal but not that big of a deal because the economy is otherwise strong. Even the FOMC...

Read More »