Wednesday , October 23 2019
Home / Tag Archives: The Daily X-Change

Tag Archives: The Daily X-Change

Technically Speaking: Rothschild’s Investing Rule

Since the markets were closed yesterday for “Memorial Day,” there isn’t much for us to update technically from this past weekend’s missive.  However, I did provide an update yesterday for our RIAPRO subscribers (Try 30-days FREE) with respect to where the S&P 500 is currently trading and why we expect a short-term bounce. To wit: As noted previously, SPY tested, and failed, at the bottom of the uptrend line from both the 2017 post-election bounce and the 2016 lows. SPY has now corrected...

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10 Illustrated Truths About Investing & The Markets

Over the last eighteen months, stocks have whipsawed within a massive trading range as “trade wars,” “tariffs,” and monetary policy actions from the Fed have lit up headlines. Despite the strong rally from the beginning of the year, investors are no better off today than they were at the beginning of 2018. Does this mean the bull market is over? Or, is it just a pause before a continuation higher? Has the Federal Reserve figured out how to “end recessions?” Or, has the low interest rate...

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Fundamentally Speaking: 7-Measures Suggest A Decade Of Low Returns

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett Just recently, I discussed the importance of valuations as it relates to investors who are close to retirement age. To wit: “Unless you have contracted ‘vampirism,’ then you do NOT have 90, 100, or more, years to invest to gain ‘average historical returns.’ Given that most investors do not start seriously saving for retirement until the age of 35, or older, they have about 30-35 years to reach their goals. If that period happens...

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The 5-Laws Of Human Stupidity & How To Be A “Non-Stupid” Investor

This past weekend, I was digging through some old articles and ran across one that needed to be readdressed on “human stupidity” as it relates to investing. The background was a study done in 1976 by a professor of economic history at the University of California, Berkeley. Carol M. Cipolla published an essay outlining the fundamental laws of a force he perceived as humanity’s greatest existential threat: Stupidity. Stupid people, according to Cipolla, share several identifying traits: they...

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Strike Three: The Next Bear Market Ends The Game

At the beginning of this year, I was at dinner with my wife. Sitting at the table next to us, was a young financial advisor, who was probably in his mid-30’s, meeting with his client who appeared to be in his 60’s. Of course, the market had just experienced a 20% correction from the previous peak and the client was obviously concerned about his portfolio. “Don’t worry, there is always volatility in the market, but as you can see, even bear markets are mild and on average the market returns 8%...

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Technically Speaking: The Drums Of Trade War – Part Deux

In June of 2018, as the initial rounds of the “Trade War” were heating up, I wrote: “Next week, the Trump Administration will announce $50 billion in ‘tariffs’ on Chinese products. The trade war remains a risk to the markets in the short-term.” Of course, 2018 turned out to be a volatile year for investors which ended in the sell-off into Christmas Eve. As we have been writing for the last couple of weeks, the risks to the market have risen markedly as we head into the summer months. “It is a...

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Valuations, Returns & The Real Value Of Cash

Since the beginning of 2019, the market has risen sharply. That increase was not due to rising earnings and revenues, which have weakened, but rather from multiple expansion. In other words, investors are willing to pay higher prices for weaker earnings. The issue, of course, is that while it may not seem to matter in the short-term, valuations matter a lot in the long-run. I know what you are thinking. “There is NO WAY cash will outperform stocks over the next decade.”  I understand. After a...

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Game Of Thrones: Winter Is Coming 05-10-19

Market Review & Update Game Of Thrones Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update As we discussed last Saturday it was important for the markets to hold within to consolidation band, or break out to the upside, if the bulls were going to maintain control of prices in the short-term. The return of “Tariff Man” put the markets back on edge.  As I noted then: “The market’s stellar run is...

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What Could Go Wrong? The Fed’s Warns On Corporate Debt

“So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they...

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Technically Speaking: “‘Trade War’ In May & Go Away.”

Over the weekend, President Trump decided to reignite the “trade war” with China with two incendiary tweets. Via WSJ: “In a pair of Twitter messages Sunday, Mr. Trump wrote he planned to raise levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% starting Friday, from 10% currently. He also wrote he would impose 25% tariffs ‘shortly’ on $325 billion in Chinese goods that haven’t yet been taxed. ‘The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate,’ the president...

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