Saturday , January 18 2020
Home / Tag Archives: Technically Speaking

Tag Archives: Technically Speaking

Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price, and overbought conditions, not to mention valuations, as key reasons why we slightly reduced risk in our portfolios. “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.  In the Equity Portfolios, we reduced our weightings in some of our more extended holdings such as Apple (AAPL,) Microsoft (MSFT), United Healthcare...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Monthly “Buy Signal” Say Bull Is Back? But For How Long?

Just recently, there have been numerous “bullishly biased” analysts and bloggers discussing the turn up in the monthly MACD indicators as a “sure sign” the bull market rally is set to continue. While “bullish buy signals” on any long-term indicator is indeed a positive sign, there are a few “warning labels” which must also be considered. For example: Since these are monthly indicators, the signal is only valid at the end of the month. Mid-month signals can be reversed by sharp price...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Turkeys, Markets & A “Revision Of Belief”

On Monday, the markets jumped on more “trade news,” despite there being no real progress made. However, such wasn’t surprising as we discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter: “Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing the ‘QE, Not QE’ rally. Regardless of what the Fed wishes to call their bond purchases, the market has interpreted the expansion of their balance sheet as a ‘QE’ program. Given that investors have been ‘trained’ by the Fed’s ‘ringing of the bell,’ the subsequent...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Volatility, Oil, Dollar, & Rates (Q3-2019)

As discussed in the past weekend’s newsletter, we have been laying out the basis for a market correction. What has been most stunning is the rapid reversion in sentiment from “bearishness” this summer, to outright excess “bullishness” in just a few short weeks.  “But it isn’t just the more extreme advance of the market over the past 5-weeks which has us a bit concerned in the short-term, but a series of other indications which typically suggest short- to intermediate-terms corrections in...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: It’s Crazy, But We’re Adding Equity Risk

In last week’s update, I discussed the case of why it was “now or never” for the bulls to take control of the market. To wit: The ECB announced more QE The Fed reduced capital requirements and initiated QE The Fed is cutting rates A “Brexit Deal” has been reached. Trump, as expected, caved into China Economic data is improving Stock buybacks If you are a bull, what is there not to love?  Despite a long laundry list of concerns, as stated, we remain equity biased in our portfolio models...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Bulls Get QE & Trade, Remain “Stuck In The Middle”

“Clowns to the left of me,Jokers to the right, here I am,Stuck in the middle with you” – Stealers Wheels __________________________ The lyrics seem apropos considering we have Trump, China, Mnuchin, the Fed, along with a whole cast of colorful characters making managing money a difficult prospect recently.  However, the good news is that over the last month, the bulls have had their wish list fulfilled. The ECB announces more QE and reduces capital constraints on foreign banks. The Fed...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts & The Reason To Focus On Risk

Since the lows of last December, the markets have climbed ignoring weakening economic growth, deteriorating earnings, weak revenue growth, and historically high valuations on “hopes” that more “Fed rate cuts” and “QE” will keep this current bull market, and economy, alive…indefinitely. This is at least what much of the media suggests as noted recently by Rex Nutting via MarketWatch: “‘Recessions are always hard to predict,’ says Lou Crandall, chief economist for Wrightson ICAP, who’s been...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: The Risk To The Bullish View Of Trade Deal

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the bullish view of a trade deal with China.  “Assuming we are correct, and Trump does indeed ‘cave’ into China in mid-October to get a ‘small deal’ done, what does this mean for the market.  The most obvious impact, assuming all ‘tariffs’ are removed, would be a psychological ‘pop’ to the markets which, given that markets are already hovering near all-time highs, would suggest a rally into the end of the year.”  This is not the first time we...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: How To Safely Navigate A Late Stage Bull Market

In this past weekends newsletter, I discussed the issues surrounding “dollar cost averaging” and “buy and hold” investing. That discussion always raises some debate because there is so much pablum printed in the mainstream media about it. As we discussed: “Yes, a ‘buy and hold’ portfolio will grow in the financial markets over time, but it DOES  NOT compound. Read this carefully: “Compound returns assume no principal loss, ever.” To visualize the importance of this statement, look at the...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: The Risk Of A Liquidity Driven Event

Over the last few days, the internet has been abuzz with commentary about the spike in interest rates. Of course, the belief is that the spike in rates is “okay” because the market are still rising.  “The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was poised for its largest weekly rally since November 2016 as investors checked prior concerns that the U.S. was careening toward an economic downturn.” – CNBC See, one good economic data point and apparently everything is “A-okay.”  Be careful...

Read More »