Saturday , July 20 2019
Home / Tag Archives: Technically Speaking

Tag Archives: Technically Speaking

Technically Speaking: Fed “Hopes” Spark Return Of Bullish Complacency

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I laid out the bull and bear case for the S&P 500 rising to 3300. In summary, the basic driver of the “bull market thesis” essentially boils down to Central Bank policy, as noted by the WSJ yesterday: “U.S. indices hit record highs last week on rate cut expectations. We’ve shifted from fiscal stimulus to monetary stimulus as the driver of the rally.” In other words, it is all about “rate cuts.” This reliance on the Fed has led to a marked rise in...

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Technically Speaking: Monthly S&P 500 Chart Update & Review

With June now officially in the books, we can take a look at our long-term monthly indicators to see what they are telling us now. Does the recent breakout to “all-time highs” mean the bull market is finally back? Or, is this breakout doomed to failure as the previous breakouts have been? That’s the answer we all want to know. Each week on RIA PRO we provide an update on all of the major markets for trading purposes. (See an unlocked version here. We also do the same analysis for each S&P...

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Technically Speaking: The Bull Is Back, Bonds Say “No”

For the fifth time, since the end of 2017. the market hit an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off.  Will this time be different? This was the question I asked last Tuesday: “Such is the belief currently which is being driven primarily by the ‘Pavlovian’ response of a more ‘accommodative’ Federal Reserve which is expected to cut rates sharply by the end of this year. It is also the ‘hope’ there will be a resolution to the ongoing ‘trade war’ with...

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Technically Speaking: Bull Market Or Bull Trap?

For the fourth time, since the end of 2017. the market has set an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off.  Will this time be different? Such is the belief currently which is being driven primarily by the “Pavlovian” response of a more “accommodative” Federal Reserve which is expected to cut rates sharply by the end of this year. It is also the “hope” there will be a resolution to the ongoing “trade war” with China at the G-20 Summit next week.  Nowhere...

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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Volatility, Oil, Dollar, & Rates

Over the last three weeks, we have discussed the “sellable rally” in the markets. However, one of the more stunning movements in the market was in interest rates which have fallen sharply in recent months as “deflation” and “economic weakness” have become points of concern for the Federal Reserve. Just last year, the Federal Reserve was hiking rates with the expectations of stronger economic growth and rising inflationary pressures from a tight labor market. Almost a year later, the markets,...

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Technically Speaking: The “Sellable Rally” Chart Review

Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a “sellable rally” following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit: “This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term ‘sellable’ rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets only need some mildly positive news at this point to spur a ‘short-covering’ rally. I would encourage you to use it to reduce risk, rebalance holdings, and raise cash until the ‘trade war smoke’ clears. The market...

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Technically Speaking: Tops Are Processes, Bottoms Are Events

In April of 2018, I posted an article laying out 10-reasons why the “bull market” had likely ended for a while. To wit: “I highly suggest you use any substantial rally to reduce risk and rebalance portfolios accordingly. Why? Because I am going to out on a limb and making a call.’I think the 9-year old bull market may have ended in February.’”  As I stated then: “In 2015, the market plunged as Fed Chair Janet Yellen brought QE3 to its conclusion and started hiking interest rates for the first...

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Technically Speaking: Rothschild’s Investing Rule

Since the markets were closed yesterday for “Memorial Day,” there isn’t much for us to update technically from this past weekend’s missive.  However, I did provide an update yesterday for our RIAPRO subscribers (Try 30-days FREE) with respect to where the S&P 500 is currently trading and why we expect a short-term bounce. To wit: As noted previously, SPY tested, and failed, at the bottom of the uptrend line from both the 2017 post-election bounce and the 2016 lows. SPY has now corrected...

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Watch This Pennant Pattern Forming In Bitcoin

One month ago, I pointed out that $6,000 was the key hurdle to watch in Bitcoin. I said that further gains were likely if Bitcoin could close convincingly above that level. Since then, it has exploded to over $8,000, where it has been struggling recently. Bitcoin may be forming a pennant pattern, which may lead to an even more powerful surge if the cryptocurrency can break out of this pattern in a decisive manner with high volume: For now, I am waiting to see if Bitcoin can break out of...

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Fundamentally Speaking: 7-Measures Suggest A Decade Of Low Returns

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett Just recently, I discussed the importance of valuations as it relates to investors who are close to retirement age. To wit: “Unless you have contracted ‘vampirism,’ then you do NOT have 90, 100, or more, years to invest to gain ‘average historical returns.’ Given that most investors do not start seriously saving for retirement until the age of 35, or older, they have about 30-35 years to reach their goals. If that period happens...

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