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Tag Archives: Technical analysis

Earnings Kick Off With Markets Priced For Perfection 07-16-21

PRINTER FRIENDLY VERSION In this 07-16-21 issue of “Earnings Kick Off With Markets Priced For Perfection.” Market Pulls Back As Signals TurnEarnings Season Has A High BarMarkets Priced For PerfectionPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Are you worried about the potential for a market correction, a surge in inflation, or are you unsure how to invest for your retirement? We can help. If you...

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Yields Plunge. Dollar Surges. The Reflation Trade Unravels. 07-09-21

PRINTER FRIENDLY VERSION In this 07-09-21 issue of “Yields Plunge Dollar Surges The Reflation Trade Unravels.“ Market Pulls Back As Signals TurnYield Plunge, Dollar SurgeThe Reflation Trade UnravelsPortfolio PositioningSector & Market Analysis401k Plan ManagerFollow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Are you worried about the potential for a market correction, a surge in inflation, or are you unsure how to invest for your retirement? We can help. If you...

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As Good As It Gets. Will Q2 Mark Peak Reporting? 07-02-21

The biggest problem for investors is the “herding effect” and “loss aversion.” As markets are rising, individuals believe that the current price trend will continue to last for an indefinite period. The longer the rising trend lasts, the more ingrained the belief becomes until the last of “holdouts” finally “buy-in” as the financial markets evolve into a “euphoric state.” Once the market begins to decline, there is a slow realization it is more than a “buy the dip” opportunity.  As...

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Just a hiccup?

Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has shown negative seasonality at the end of June. So far, the index has been tracking its historical pattern well in 2021. The market took fright last week from the abrupt hawkish tone of the FOMC statement and subsequent Powell press conference last week. By Friday, it had become deeply oversold (see Boo! Powell scares the children!) and recovered this week.   Was that it? Is the seasonal weakness over? A broad recovery The analysis of...

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Boo! Powell scares the children!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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The market’s instant FOMC report card

Mid-week market update: It’s always difficult to make any kind of coherent market comment on FOMC meeting days. The market reaction can be wild and price moves can reverse themselves in the coming days.  Nevertheless, experienced investors understand that it’s not the announcement that matters, but the tone announcement compared to market expectations. Bloomberg Economics conducted a survey ahead of today’s FOMC meeting and found the following:  FOMC will raise inflation, growth...

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A new S&P 500 high, but…

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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Pigs get slaughtered…

Mid-week market update: Traders have an adage, “Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs just get slaughtered.” It’s time for equity bulls to be near-term cautious on stocks, though I expect any market weakness to be relatively shallow.  In my weekend update, I had set out a number of tripwires (see Time is running out for the bulls). So far, the S&P 500 is struggling to overcome resistance even as it exhibits a negative RSI divergence.  On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury...

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Time is running out for the bulls

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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Don’t short a dull market

Mid-week market update: Even as the S&P 500 remains range-bound, market internals are constructive. I interpret these conditions to mean that the market can grind higher in the short-term, and the intermediate-term trend is still up.  Don’t short a dull market. A risk appetite revival A survey of risk appetite indicators reveals a revival. Regular readers will know that I am not a long-term bull on Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies (see Why you should and shouldn’t invest...

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