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Tag Archives: Tariffs

Canadian aluminum tariffs likely déjà vu moment for some

Settling in with a favorite film can be comforting in times like these. There’s something reassuring about seeing the same familiar scenes play out on screen. I still laugh at Rodney Dangerfield’s obnoxious tycoon, Al Czervik, in “Caddyshack” or the scene in “Office Space” where disgruntled co-workers take out their frustrations on an unreliable fax machine. Those are classic comedies, though. A repeat viewing of a mob drama like “Goodfellas” can generate the same anxious feelings and...

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Technically Speaking: The One Thing – Playing The “Bear Market” Rally.

Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019. “It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate ‘sub-prime’ debt (aka leveraged loans.) ‘Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky business debt over the past few years. The acronyms have changed a bit—’CLOs’ (collateralized loan obligations) instead of ‘CDOs’ (collateralized...

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China reopens its doors to US LPG, but path to recovery may be slow

After an eighteen-month hiatus, Chinese liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) buyers are peering west again, as the country looks to the US to fill its burgeoning import demand. Propane and butane, key feedstocks for plastics and synthetic rubber, were hit hard by the prolonged trade spat between the US and China, which resulted in tariffs across a raft of raw materials and manufactured goods. Resumption of US-China trade flows has been the talk of the Asian LPG market since March 2, as Beijing...

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Will The Corona Virus Trigger A Recession?

As if waking up to an economic nightmare, investors see headlines like these and many others flashing across their Bloomberg terminals: Facebook says Oculus headphone production will be delayed due to virusApple extends country wide store closing for another weekFoxconn delays iPhone productionQualcomm cuts production forecast due to virus uncertaintyStarbucks announces China store closures through Lunar New Year, uncertain when they may reopenUS Steel flashes a warning of a cut in...

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Market shifts, Asian demand support strong US crude export volumes: Fuel for Thought

The export market has been a boon for US crude oil in early 2020, with the world, and especially Asia, looking to quench their thirst for light sweet grades. US outflows have been strong, with cFlow, S&P Global Platts’ trade flow software, estimating exports at 3.245 million b/d through the first five weeks of the year, despite worries of developing headwinds in the market. High shipping costs in December and January, several fog-related delays and a closing arbitrage into Europe...

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Aluminum cups hit Super Bowl, scoring points on sustainability and cost

Those fortunate enough to have scored a ticket to Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV in Miami know how pricey it is just getting into the big game. On the online ticket resale site StubHub, the lowest-priced, single ticket was going for more than $4,000 in the lead up to the NFL season finale between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. And once inside Hard Rock Stadium, super fans won’t get any breaks when it comes to the price of fueling up to cheer on their favorite team. For instance,...

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10/1/20: U.S. Tariffs on European Wines: Inflicting Self-Harm

Next week, the  Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to make a determination on the potential imposition of an up to 100% tariff on imports of wine from Europe. Which is a bad thing for the overall state of the global trade, bad news for the European producers of wine, bad news for the American consumers and their European counterparts, and bad news for the U.S. wine industry. But 'bad things' do not stop there. There will be costs imposed on restaurants and bars. There will...

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Can Six Myths Keep The Market Going?

Piper Jaffray forecasts by year end 2020, the S&P 500 (SPX) will hit 3600, a 12.8 % increase. Of eighteen analysts interviewed by Marketwatch only three forecasters expect a decline for the SPX. Will the SPX reach 3600?  The SPX has soared over 400 % from a low of 666 in 2009 to over 3200 at the close of 2019. Mapping the SPX ten year history onto a psychology market cycle map of growth and decline phases poses interesting questions. As the market has zoomed over 400% upwards over ten...

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What We Are Not Being Told About The Trade Deal

Unlike most trade deals where the terms are readily available, the details of the Phase One trade agreement between China and the U.S. will not be announced nor signed in public. Accordingly, investors are left to cobble together official comments, anonymous statements from officials, and rumors to ascertain how it might affect their portfolios. Based on official and unofficial sources, existing tariffs will remain in place, new tariff hikes will be delayed, and China will purchase...

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“The Art Of The Deal” & How To Lose A “Trade War.”

This past Monday, on the #RealInvestmentShow, I discussed that it was exceedingly likely that Trump would delay, or remove, the tariffs which were slated to go into effect this Sunday, On Thursday, that is exactly what happened. Not only did the tariffs get delayed, but on Friday, it was reported that China and the U.S. reached “Phase One” of the trade deal, which included “some” tariff relief and agricultural purchases. To wit: “The U.S. plans to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods in phases, a...

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