Tuesday , September 17 2019
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Tag Archives: Stock Market

NFIB Survey Trips Economic Alarms

Last week, I wrote an article discussing the August employment report, which clearly showed a slowdown in employment activity and an overall deterioration the trend of the data. To wit: “While the recent employment report was slightly below expectations, the annual rate of growth is slowing at a faster pace. Therefore, by applying a 3-month average of the seasonally-adjusted employment report, we see the slowdown more clearly.” I want to follow that report up with analysis from the...

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Has The Narrative Been All Priced In? 09-13-19

The Bullish Narrative Is It All Priced In? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha The Bullish Narrative This past week was built for the “bulls” as just about every item on their “wish list.” was fulfilled. From a “trade deal” to more “QE,” what more could you want? Trade Deal Near? Concerning the ongoing “trade war,” our prediction that Trump would begin to back peddle on negotiations to get a “deal done”...

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Retail Math, Stock Sentiment

According to the Census Bureau, auto sales in the US may be on the upswing. Rising 6.8% year-over-year in August, it was the highest rate in nearly three years for retail sales of automobiles. This follows an upward revised 6.3% increase during July, the best back-to-back months in the beleaguered sector since the end of 2016. Are auto sales experiencing a rebound in the second half of 2019, just as Jay Powell has been predicting for the overall American economy? Or is it just another...

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An Investor’s Desktop Guide To Trading – Part II

Read Part-1 Here Currently, it seems that nothing can derail the bull market. Trade wars, weakening economic growth, deteriorating earnings, and inverted yield curves have all been dismissed on “hopes” that a “trade deal” will come, and the Federal Reserve will cut rates. While the last two items may indeed extend the current cycle by a few months, they won’t change the dynamics of the former. Eventually, this cycle ends. Of that, there is little argument. It is the “when,” that is tirelessly...

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The Costs & Consequences Of $15/Hour – The Update

In 2016, I first touched on the impacts of hiking the minimum wage. “What’s the big ‘hub-bub’ over raising the minimum wage to $15/hr? After all, the last time the minimum wage was raised was in 2009. According to the April 2015, BLS report the numbers were quite underwhelming: ‘In 2014, 77.2 million workers age 16 and older in the United States were paid at hourly rates, representing 58.7 percent of all wage and salary workers. Among those paid by the hour, 1.3 million earned exactly the...

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Bulls Regain The Narrative As They Want To Believe 09-06-19

Market Review & Update The Last Hoorah? They Want To Believe Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out 6-points about the market as the risk to the downside outweighed the potential reward.  Historically, September is one of the weakest months of the year, particularly when it follows a weak August. The market remains range bound and failed at both the 50-dma...

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5-Things Your Broker Will Ignore – Part 3

At our extensive Retirement Right Lane Classes which fill seats all over Houston, our planning group spend hours with a wide demographic of attendees who give up their Saturdays to tackle head on, the challenging topics that are crucial to financial survival in retirement. An important goal of the class is to rewire the years of bad advice consumers have been given from an industry which thrives on outdated theories. From “pre-tax investment vehicles are the greatest invention since...

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Technically Speaking: Just How Long Will Markets Keep “Buying” It?

Tighten up stop-loss levels to current support levels for each position. Hedge portfolios against major market declines. Take profits in positions that have been big winners Sell laggards and losers Raise cash and rebalance portfolios to target weightings. We are closer to the end of this cycle than not, and the reversion process back to value has historically been a painful one.” Remember, it is always far easier to regain a lost opportunity. It is a much more difficult prospect to...

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Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument

Market Review & Update Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Really! Another week of nowhere?  This is the same chart from last week, updated, but here is the salient point. “This has been an impossible market to effectively trade as rhetoric between the White House, the Fed, and China has reached a fevered pitch.” Don’t fall into the...

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8-Reasons To Hold Some Extra Cash

Over the past few months, we have been writing a series of articles that highlight our concerns of increasing market risk.  Here is a sampling of some of our more recent newsletters on the issue.  The common thread among these articles was to encourage our readers to use rallies to reduce risk as the “bull case” was being eroded by slower economic growth, weaker earnings, trade wars, and the end of the stimulus from tax cuts and natural disasters. To wit: These “warning signs” are just that....

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