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Tag Archives: Stock Market

Bad Look Of High Stock Prices & High Unemployment

In a few hours, the BLS will release the employment situation for April, which will illustrate the devastation the COVID crisis has inflicted on the U.S. labor market.  Since the crisis began 30 million plus American workers have filed for unemployment insurance, which is about 20 percent of the 150 million workforce. Not all 30 million will show up in this morning’s number due to lags in how the data is gathered.  We expect the unemployment rate will probably peak in the May report...

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Too Shorty To Get Shorty

The stock market is clearly detached from economic reality and unmoored from any sensible valuation metric but it just keeps going higher. ¿Por qué. The market is going up because so many are caught offside betting it’s not going to go up.  It also amazes us how so many retrofit their fundamental analysis or perspective of the economy to the price action.  No, not everything is awesome and the market is priced for awesome. Moreover, not a good look if the stock market is close too...

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10 Planning Rules that Drive Financial Success

Are You A “Basement” Thinker? Too often, we tend to focus on individual stocks and other investments that will hopefully lead to wealth.  While that is O.K., it isn’t enough. The issue is investing without a sound “plan” is the same as building a house without a “blueprint.” Yes, you will get something, but it probably won’t be the result you set out to get. Be A Rooftop Thinker! By starting with a proper plan you take into account all assets, liabilities and sources of income. From there...

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Anatomy of The Bear. Lessons from Russell Napier.

One of my annual re-reads is Russell Napier’s classic tome “Anatomy of the Bear.” A mandatory study for every financial professional and investor who seeks to understand not only how damaging bear markets can be but also the traits which mark their bottoms. Every bear is shaken from hibernation for different reasons. However, when studying the four great bottoms of bears in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, there are several common traits to these horrendous cycles.  I thought it would be...

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Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules For Now (Full Report)

Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha 2020 Investment Summit – April 2nd. The “2020 SOCIALLY DISTANT INVESTMENT SUMMIT” is coming on Thursday, April 2nd. Click the link below to receive an email with a special “invitation only” link when the summit goes “live.” (Current newsletter subscribers are already registered.) Catch Up On...

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24/3/20: Q2 2020 S&P 500 Earnings Outlook: Not As Ugly as It Will Be

Per Factset March 23 report, "the aggregate earnings growth rate for Q2 2020 changed from slight year-over-year earnings growth on March 12 (+0.8%) to a slight year-over-year earnings decline on March 13 (-0.7%)." Note: back at the end of January 2020, the expectation was for y/y growth of 5.9 percent. Worse, "expectations for earnings growth for Q2 2020 have been falling over the past few months. On September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q2 2020 was 8.0%. By December 31, the...

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Technically Speaking: The One Thing – Playing The “Bear Market” Rally.

Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019. “It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate ‘sub-prime’ debt (aka leveraged loans.) ‘Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky business debt over the past few years. The acronyms have changed a bit—’CLOs’ (collateralized loan obligations) instead of ‘CDOs’ (collateralized...

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America: WILL WE FINALLY LEARN A LESSON?

“Much of what passes for orthodoxy in economics and finance proves, on closer examination, to be shaky business.” The Misbehavior of Markets – by Benoit Mandelbrot & Richard L. Hudson. If as households we do crumble financially yet another time, will this ‘outlier’ event finally teach us a valuable lesson? One we’ll never forget (again)? I mean, how many Black Swans or events that create wholesale economic and financial devastation must we endure to work diligently, effortlessly, to...

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Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls (Full Report)

Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week NOTE: During these tumultuous times, we are unlocking our full newsletter to help you navigate the markets safely. Make sure you subscribe to RIAPRO.NET (Free 30-Day Trial) if you want to keep receiving the full report after the...

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