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Tag Archives: sentiment analysis

Things you don’t see at market bottoms: Halloween edition

Get more articles like thisBack to full articleIt is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market has made its final cyclical top, we are in the late stages of a bull market (see Risks are rising,...

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Good news, bad news from Earnings Season

Get more articles like thisBack to full articlePreface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...

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A continued grind upwards

Get more articles like thisBack to full articleMid-week market update: I wrote last weekend that there was a possibility that the stock market may undergo a melt-up, followed by a crash (see Market melt-up and crash?). That scenario may well be occurring, and I sent out an email to subscribers on Monday stating that my trading account had moved from all-cash to being long stocks. There are a number of reasons for my tactical position. First, I had set a line in the sand on the weekend....

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Peak small cap tax cut euphoria?

Get more articles like thisBack to full articleMid-week market update: The intermediate term technical trend remains bullish, it`s hard to argue with the strong momentum that the market has displayed. Ari Wald recently pointed out that the market is experiencing a “good overbought” condition (my words, not his) that has the potential to carry the market much higher.  However, the current market environment may be setting up for a short correction. The SPX is trading above its upper...

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Is 3% for 6 months enough to take equity risk?

Get more articles like thisBack to full articlePreface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...

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Nearing upside target, what now?

Get more articles like thisBack to full articleMid-week market update: Back on July 19, 2017, I wrote about using point and figure charting as a way of projecting an upside SPX target when the index stood at 2473 (see What’s the upside target in this rally?). Using different sets of inputs that represent different time horizons and risk tolerances, I arrived at a target range, and a median upside target of 2561. The final targets were roughly the same whether outliers (highlighted in...

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Buy the breakout?

Get more articles like thisBack to full articlePreface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...

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The things you don’t see at market bottoms, CFD leverage edition

Get more articles like thisBack to full articleIt is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market has made its final cyclical top, we are in the late stages of a bull market (see Risks are rising,...

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The Fed has spoken (and what that means)

Get more articles like thisBack to full articlePreface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the...

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NAAIM buy signal update

Get more articles like thisBack to full articleI had highlighted an unusual contrarian buy signal in my last post (see Round number-itis at 2500). NAAIM sentiment, which is reported weekly, turned anomalously bearish last week and fell below its lower Bollinger Band. Past episodes of such occurrences have turned out to be very good contrarian buy signals.  The reading last week was anomalous because every other sentiment indicator had become more bullish, while NAAIM RIAs got more...

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