Wednesday , January 22 2020
Home / Tag Archives: sentiment analysis (page 10)

Tag Archives: sentiment analysis

Revealed: The market timers’ dirty little secret

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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Offbeat Thursday and Friday forecasts

Brett Steenberger recently warned that traders about trading on noise, which is advice to which I wholeheartedly agree: In other words, before we can determine whether or not we have an edge (in systematic or discretionary trading), we need to establish knowledge. A theory explains how and why something occurs. Testing of historical data can help us conduct limited, targeted tests to determine whether our theory holds up in practice. Before we test, we must formulate a plausible...

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Could a weak consumer stall the economy?

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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Bear markets simply don’t start this way

Mid-week market update: There remains a fair amount of stock market skittishness among my readers and on my social media feed. Let me assure everyone that bear markets simply don`t start this way. SentimenTrader has an intermediate to long-term sentiment model called AIM “which averages the momentum of the four major sentiment surveys”. This model is not perfect at calling the exact bottoms or spotting exact turning points. Nevertheless, it has done a good job of defining the risk and...

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Deconstructing the institutional pain trade

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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Market waves and ripples

Mid-week market update: Charles Dow once characterized the stock market`s price movement as being composed of tides, waves, and ripples. We can see a mini version of this thesis by the market’s action in the past week. The major indices had staged an upside breakout through a downtrend and sentiment had turned bullish. This week, the narrative became more cautious: 10-year bond yields had spiked significantly above 3%. The US-North Korea summit is at risk of going off the rails. The...

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The bulls are back in town

Mid-week market update: In my last mid-week market update (see Still choppy, still consolidating), I highlighted the weekly (unscientific) sentiment survey conducted by Callum Thomas. The poll showed fundamentally oriented investors to be very bullish, while technical survey was bearish. I suggested at the time that one of the signs that the sideways consolidation may end was an agreement between the fundamental and technical survey, indicating either positive or negative momentum. The...

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Is good news now good news, or bad news?

Mid-week market update: What should we make of the stock market now that the 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 3% level? Should we pay attention to the JPM Asset Management historical analysis which stated, “When yields are below 5%, rising rates have historically been associated with rising stock prices”?  Should we pay attention to the latest BAML Fund Manager Survey, which concluded that the median manager is not overly worried until the 10-year yield crosses 3.5%?  Up...

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Buy gold for the late cycle inflation surge?

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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A bottoming process

Mid-week market update: As the market bounces around in reaction to the headline of the day, it is important to maintain some perspective and see the underlying trend. Numerous sentiment and technical indicators are pointing towards a bottoming process and a bullish intermediate term outlook. Day-to-day price movements, on the other hand, are hard to predict. Consider, for example, the positioning of large speculators (read: hedge funds) in the high beta NASDAQ 100 futures and options....

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