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Tag Archives: sentiment analysis

Another test of the 50 dma

Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 revisits the area around its 50 dma, will the weakness persist or will it be halted? The index has found good support at the 50 dma all of this year. Equally constructive is the bull flag pattern being traced out by the S&P 500, though the index hasn’t staged an upside breakout through the flag yet.  Bespoke pointed out that the most recent losing streak is just the seventh time since the GFC that the S&P 500 closed at a record high...

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A consolation prize for the bulls

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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No breadth thrust, but a slow grind-up

Mid-week market update: I recently highlighted the possible development of a rare momentum-based Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal (see The Zweig Breadth Thrust watch). The window for the ZBT buy signal closes tomorrow (Thursday). While the S&P 500 has been advancing slowly, we are unlikely to see the buy signal barring some gargantuan melt-up tomorrow.  However, the failure of the ZBT buy signal doesn’t mean that the outlook has turned bearish. Instead, the stock market appears to...

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The Zweig Breadth Thrust watch

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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The market endures a summer squall

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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A fear of Delta?

Mid-week market update: Stock prices have taken a minor and uneven risk-off tone this week. The pullback has been attributable to fears over a Delta variant-related slowdown.   I beg to differ. Instead, the weakness can be better explained by market technical conditions. The 5-day correlation between the S&P 500 and VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, had spiked recently. Past instances have resolved themselves with minor bearish episodes in the last three years. Sentiment...

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Prepare for a growth stock correction

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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Another chance to buy the panic

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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A glass half full, or empty?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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High expectations for earnings season

Mid-week market update: As the market enters into Q2 earnings season, FactSet reported that consensus estimates are calling for an astounding 63.3% YoY EPS growth.  While that growth estimate appears to be a high bar, investors have to keep in mind the low base effect. As well, the historical record shows that actual growth has tended to exceed estimates. In other words, the bears shouldn’t count on earnings disappointment as a catalyst for a price downdraft. S&P 500 target:...

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