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Tag Archives: Scariest Chart

25/6/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

Trump cheers today's unemployment figures... and... Week of June 13th non-seasonally adjusted new unemployment claims were revised up to 1,463,363, from 1,433,027 published a week ago.First estimate for the week of June 20th came in at 1,457,373.Total initial unemployment claims filed so far during the COVID19 pandemic now sit at a massive, gargantuan 43,303,196, while estimated jobs losses (we only have official data for these through May, so using June unemployment claims to factor an...

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18/6/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

Weekly data for initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 13, 2020 is out, so here are the updated 'America's Scariest Charts':Index of employment, benchmarked to the pre-recession peak employment: Estimated total non-farm payrolls: And initial unemployment claims, half-year running sum: Today's initial unemployment claims came in at 1,561,267 for the week ending June 6, 2020 (final estimate), slightly up on previous preliminary estimate. For the week ending June 13, 2020,...

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11/6/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

The latest data on initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 6, 2020 is out today (release here: https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/061120.pdf). Initial unemployment claims are up another 1,537,120 in one week, though the rate of new additions is down slightly on the revised 1,620,010 new claims in the week ending May 30, 2020.Here is the summary of the claims and jobs losses during the current recession as compared to all previous post-WW2 recessions: Cumulative estimated jobs...

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5/6/20: “Incredible” Jobs Report Meets Reality

Some updates on the jobs report this morning for the U.S.Political reaction: Reality bites: New initial unemployment claims last week: 1,603,000. Putting this into perspective: Which brings latest non-farm payrolls figures back to 1Q 2000 levels: So, yeah, right, "tremendous" or put differently, we have 20 years worth of jobs destroyed. Non-farm payrolls increase of 2,509,000 is a good thing at the tail end of May, but the average weekly new unemployment claims increases from March...

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21/5/20: Weekly Unemployment Claims: Updated

In the previous post, I have updated one of the charts relating to the U.S. labor market, namely the chart on employment https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/21520-horror-show-of-covid19.html. The data used is a mixture of monthly employment numbers and within-month weekly unemployment claims.For consistency, here is the chart plotting weekly unemployment claims based on half-year cumulative numbers:

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21/5/20: The Horror Show of COVID19 Unemployment

New initial claims data is out for last week, and so time to update one of my scary charts: Here is a summary table: At 2,174,329 new claims filed in the week ending May 16th, the lowest number in weekly new claims since the start of the COVID19 pandemic, it's quite tempting to say that things are improving in the labor markets. Alas, last week's print was greater than the entire recession period combined prints of four past recessions.Cumulative first claims filed in the last 9...

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3/5/20: Updated: The Scariest Chart in Economics

Updating one of the two 'Scariest Charts' in economics with the latest data - preliminary, through April 25, 2020: This goes hand-in-hand with the earlier chart here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/3520-updated-shocking-wave-of-jobs.html.  The speed and the depth of jobs destruction in the U.S. during the last two months has been beyond precedent. 

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23/4/20: U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Heading into COVID19 Disaster

Adding to the two scariest charts in economic history (see https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/1942020-two-scariest-charts-in-economic.html), a third chart, showing changes in the U.S. labor force participation rates during and following recessions: The above clearly shows that 2008-2009 recession has been unique in the history of the U.S. economy not only in terms of the unprecedented duration of unemployment (link above), but also in terms of the scale of exits from the labor...

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19/4/2020: Two Scariest Charts in Economic History

I have been posting quite a bit on U.S. unemployment and jobs destruction numbers coming from the COVID-19 pandemic. So here are two charts to watch into the future, and I will be updating these throughout the crisis here.The first chart plots evolution of non-farm payrolls index for each official recession. I used as the index base average payroll numbers for 6 months prior to the first month of the recession. I then compute and plot the index from month 1 of the recession through the...

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