Tuesday , November 12 2019
Home / Tag Archives: S&P 500

Tag Archives: S&P 500

The One Chart Every Millennial Should Ignore

The media is full of articles about the financial situation of Millennials in today’s economy. According to numerous surveys, they are saddled with too much debt, can’t secure higher wage-paying jobs, and are financially distressed on many fronts. Moreover, this is occurring during the longest financial and economic boom in the history of the United States. Of course, the media is always there to help by chastising boot-strapped Millennials to dump their savings into the financial markets to...

Read More »

CEO Confidence Plunges, Consumers Won’t Like What Happens Next

There is a disparity happening in the country. No, it isn’t political partisanship, but rather “economic confidence.” The latest release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey rose to a three-month high of 96, beat consensus expectations, and remains near record levels. Conversely, CEO confidence in the economy is near record lows. It’s an interesting dichotomy. The chart below shows our composite confidence index, which combines both the University of Michigan and...

Read More »

The Fed & The Stability/Instability Paradox

“Only those that risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.” – T.S. Eliot Well, this certainly seems to be the path that the Federal Reserve, and global Central Banks, have decided take. Yesterday, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter-point and maintained their “dovish” stance but suggested they are open to “allowing the balance sheet to grow.” While this isn’t anything more than just stopping Q.T. entirely, the markets took this as a sign that Q.E. is just around the...

Read More »

NFIB Survey Trips Economic Alarms

Last week, I wrote an article discussing the August employment report, which clearly showed a slowdown in employment activity and an overall deterioration the trend of the data. To wit: “While the recent employment report was slightly below expectations, the annual rate of growth is slowing at a faster pace. Therefore, by applying a 3-month average of the seasonally-adjusted employment report, we see the slowdown more clearly.” I want to follow that report up with analysis from the...

Read More »

The August Jobs Report Confirms The Economy Is Slowing

After the monthly jobs report was released last week, I saw numerous people jumping on the unemployment rate as a measure of success, and in this particular case, Trump’s success as President. Unemployment November 2016: 4.7% Unemployment August 2019: 3.7% Argument solved. President Trump has been “Yuugely” successful at putting people to work as represented by a 1% decline in the unemployment rate since his election. But what about President Obama? Unemployment November 2008: 12.6%...

Read More »

The Costs & Consequences Of $15/Hour – The Update

In 2016, I first touched on the impacts of hiking the minimum wage. “What’s the big ‘hub-bub’ over raising the minimum wage to $15/hr? After all, the last time the minimum wage was raised was in 2009. According to the April 2015, BLS report the numbers were quite underwhelming: ‘In 2014, 77.2 million workers age 16 and older in the United States were paid at hourly rates, representing 58.7 percent of all wage and salary workers. Among those paid by the hour, 1.3 million earned exactly the...

Read More »

No, Bonds Still Aren’t Overvalued!

Interest rates have plunged lately as concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy have risen. This has led many media commentators to suggest the bonds are now wildly overvalued. To wit: “When evaluating the desirability of government bonds as a long-term investment, it’s imperative to compare the prevailing yields of bonds with the earnings yields for stocks.”  While this is a common comparison, it is also wrong. Let’s compare the two: Earnings Yield: “Earnings yield” is the inverse of...

Read More »

America’s Debt Burden Will Fuel The Next Crisis

Just recently, Rex Nutting penned an opinion piece for MarketWatch entitled “Consumer Debt Is Not A Ticking Time Bomb.” His primary point is that low per-capita debt ratios and debt-to-dpi ratios show the consumer is quite healthy and won’t be the primary subject of the next crisis. To wit: “However, most Americans are better off now than they were 10-years ago, or even a few years ago. The finances of American households are strong.  But, that’s not what a lot of people think. More than a...

Read More »