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Tag Archives: S&P 500

Technically Speaking: The 4-Phases Of A Full-Market Cycle

In a recent post, I discussed the “3-stages of a bear market.”  To wit: “Yes, the market will rally, and likely substantially so.  But, let me remind you of Bob Farrell’s Rule #8 from our recent newsletter: Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline. The longer-term decline then continues, at...

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Previous Employment Concerns Becoming An Ugly Reality

“Every financial crisis, market upheaval, major correction, recession, etc. all came from one thing – an exogenous event that was not forecast or expected. This is why bear markets are always vicious, brutal, devastating, and fast. It is the exogenous event, usually credit-related, which sucks the liquidity out of the market, causing prices to plunge. As prices fall, investors begin to panic-sell driving prices lower which forces more selling in the market until, ultimately, sellers are...

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Technically Speaking: 5-Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now.

In last Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post, I stated: “From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with math comes in. As shown in the chart below, after a 35% decline in the markets from the previous highs, a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would encompass a 20% advance. Such an advance will ‘lure’ investors back into the market, thinking the ‘bear...

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Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third

Over the last couple of years, we have often discussed the impact of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing liquidity injections, which was causing distortions in financial markets, mal-investment, and the expansion of the “wealth gap.”  Our concerns were readily dismissed as bearish as asset prices were rising. The excuse: “Don’t fight the Fed” However, after years of zero interest rates, never-ending support of accommodative monetary policy, and a lack of regulatory oversight, the consequences of...

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Technically Speaking: Risk Limits Hit, When Too Little Is Too Much

For the last several months, we have been issuing repeated warnings about the market. While such comments are often mistaken for “being bearish,” we have often stated it is our process of managing “risk” which is most important. Beginning in mid-January, we began taking profits out of our portfolios and reducing risk. To wit: “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.” Importantly, we did...

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#MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus

Last week, we discussed in Fed’s ‘Emergency Rate Cut’ Reveals Recession Risks” that while current economic data may not suggest a possibility of a recession was imminent, other “off the run” data didn’t agree. “We are likely experiencing more than just a ‘soft patch’ currently despite the mainstream analysts’ rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, even before the impact of COVID-19, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer...

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Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market

“Tops are a process, and bottoms are an event” Over the last couple of years, we have discussed the ongoing litany of issues that plagued the underbelly of the financial markets. The “corporate credit” markets are at risk of a wave of defaults. Earnings estimates for 2019 fell sharply, and 2020 estimates are now on the decline. Stock market targets for 2020 are still too high, along with 2021. Rising geopolitical tensions between Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, etc.  The effect of the tax...

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#MacroView: Fed’s “Emergency Rate Cut” Reveals Recession Risks

Last week, I discussed in “Recession Risks Tick Up” that while current data may not suggest a possibility of a recession was imminent, other “off the run” data didn’t agree. “The problem with most of the current analysis, which suggests a “no recession” scenario, is based heavily on lagging economic data, which is highly subject to negative revisions. The stock market, however, is a strong leading indicator of investor expectations of growth over the next 12-months. Historically, stock market...

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Technically Speaking: Sellable Rally, Or The Return Of The Bull?

Typically, “Technically Speaking,” is an analysis of Monday’s market action, and the relevant risk/reward dynamics for investors. However, this week, we need to update the strategy we lain out in this past weekend’s newsletter, “Market Crash & Navigating What Happens Next.” Specifically, we broke down the market into three specific time frames looking at the short, intermediate, and long-term technical backdrop of the markets. In that analysis, our premise was a “reflexive bounce” in the...

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