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Tag Archives: Russia

Russia Is Defeating The U.S. In The Middle East Oil Game

Yves here. There’s a bit of a “dastardly Russia” undertone to this piece which undercuts the notion that the author, Simon Watkins, is engaged in reporting. But Watkins may regard this positioning as necessary. Frankly, the US has made such a mess of Iraq, and in killing Iran’s Solemani, also knocked off Iraqi general al-Muhandis, that it should be no surprise that Russia is getting a receptive audience. By Simon Watkins, a former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and...

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Venezuela, Rosneft and US sanctions complications: Fuel for Thought

US efforts to starve Venezuela’s Maduro regime of oil revenues have substantially increased the role of Russian energy in the US Gulf Coast, an outcome the Trump administration likely never anticipated when it put sanctions in place over a year ago. The situation has created a significant shift in product flows into Gulf Coast refineries and appears to have complicated the Trump administration’s plans to increase pressure on Venezuela, including plans to sanction Russian state oil Rosneft,...

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The Race For Arctic Oil Is Heating Up

Lambert here: The new Great Game? By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. Originally published at OilPrice.com Despite climate concerns and environmentalist backlash against exploration for oil and gas in pristine sensitive regions of the Arctic, companies continue to explore for hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic Circle, in Russia and Norway in particular. The largest Russian energy companies are...

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7/2/20: Mapping Real Economic Debt: BRICS

Some great charts on real economic debt, via IIF, with my highlighting of the BRICS economies:First off, mapping corporate debt and government debt as a share of GDP:  China is an outlier within the BRICS group when it comes to corporate debt.  Chart above shows how dramatic has been deleveraging out of FX-denominated debt in Russia over the last decade. Much of this came from the reduction in US Dollar-denominated exposures. Lastly, the chart above showing changes in the US...

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21/1/20: Inflation and Growth: BRIC 2020

Via Danske Bank Research, an interesting chart showing 6-12 months forward expectations for inflation (CPI) and economic growth (GDP) for a number of countries, most notably, the BRIC economies: Clearly suggests continued growth suppression in Russia and, at last, moderating inflationary pressures, returning the economy back toward a longer-term trend of ~2% growth and sub-3% inflation. Also shows continued problems is Brazil persisting into 2020 and only a moderate uptick in economic...

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John Helmer: German Parliament Office Reports No Russian Invasion of Donbass, Rejects Media and Government Propaganda

Yves here. If you read Helmer’s write-up carefully, you will notice that the German Bundestag has disputed the strong-form claims made about the level and nature of Russian support for the “rebels” in the Donbass. The press has repeatedly gone over its skis in asserting that the Russian military had acted in a formal manner. Mind you, the German report does not say that it has proof that the Russian military didn’t intervene. After all, it is hard to prove a negative. But it does say the...

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15/1/20: Putin’s Latest Call Option Buy

"Poekhali!" sad Vlad, refraining Yuri Gagarin's famous phrase. And just like, with a sweep of his hand, Mr. Putin hasRemoved the entire Russian Cabinet, including his long-serving pal, now ex-Prime Minister Medvedev; Outlined a hefty set of forward-promised reforms; and Added billions of dollars to the Global GDP by creating a tsunami of Russia-related analysis, opinion pieces, reports and updates in the vast Kremlinology Sector bridging journalism, opinnionism, and think-tankerism. WTF...

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15/1/20: What Trade Deal Phase 1/N Says About the Four Horsemen of Apocalypse

Phase 1 of N of the "Greatest Trade Deal" that is "easiest to achieve' by the 'stablest Genius' is hitting the newsflows today. Which brings us to two posts worth reading on the subject:Post 1 via Global Macro Monitor: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/01/15/phase-1-of-potemkin-trade-deal-signed-sealed-and-yet-to-deliver/ is as always (from that source) excellent. Key takeaways are:"We never believed for one moment that China would cave on any of the big issues, such as restructuring...

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7/1/20: BRIC Composite PMIs 4Q 2019

Composite Global economic activity, as measured by Composite PMI has slowed down markedly in 2019 compared to 2018. In 2018, average Composite Global PMI (using quarterly averages) stood at 53.6. This fell back to 51.7 in 2019. In 4Q 2019, average Global Composite activity index stood at 51.3, virtually unchanged on 51.4 in 3Q 2019. Overall, Global Composite PMI has now declined in 7 consecutive quarters.  This weakness in the Global economic activity is traceable also to BRIC...

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7/1/20: BRIC Services PMIs 4Q 2019

BRIC Services PMIs have been a mixed bag in 4Q 2019, beating overall Global Services PMI, but showing similar weaknesses and renewed volatility.Brazil Services PMI slipped  in 4Q 2019, falling from 51.8 in 3Q 2019 to 51.0. Statistically, this level of activity is consistent with zero growth conditions. In the last four quarters, Brazil's services sector activity ranged between a high of 52.3 and a low of 48.6, showing lack of sustained growth momentum in the sector.Russia Services sector...

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