Wednesday , October 16 2019
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Tag Archives: Russia

Mark Ames: Why Finance Is Too Important to Leave to Larry Summers

Yves here. Mark Ames wrote this post for our first fundraiser, eight years ago. We’ve turned into a fundraiser staple, since as long as we are afflicted with Larry Summers, this classic is worth reading regularly. Think of it as our analogue to Christmas perennials like The Grinch That Stole Christmas or It’s a Wonderful Life. But not to worry, Ames being Ames and NC being NC, this is the antithesis of sappy. And don’t kid yourself that because Summers hasn’t been all that visible of late,...

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The US Massively Underestimates the Trade War Blowback

Yves here. Even though most readers know the general point very well, that US trade and financial sanctions haven’t brought targets to their knees, and had instead pushed them to find allies, but it’s useful to have detail to flesh out the story. There are some bits one can quibble with, like the “annexation of Crimea” bit, and the US objectives for its sanctions against Russia. At least under the Obama Administration, the belief was that they would damage the economy severely and force a...

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16/8/19: U.S. Military Presence Worldwide

Generally, I do not find Politico to be a great source for geopolitical analysis and data, but here is one exception - a handy map of U.S. military bases, smaller deployment platforms and unconfirmed deployment platforms worldwide: Thirty years after the end of the Cold War, one country remains completely and comprehensively surrounded by the U.S. military deployment platforms (and these exclude non-U.S. Nato platforms): Russia.The map does not show the U.S. navy and airforce reach...

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German LNG projects are taking shape, but does the market need them?

Germany currently imports over 80 Bcm/year of natural gas, or nearly one quarter of total European imports, primarily from Russia, Norway and the Netherlands. Now, the country is looking to add to its import options, by launching at least two LNG import terminals in Northern Germany by the mid-2020s. It’s a plan that has been around since the 1970s, but that has recently gained firmer political and commercial support. Industry participants are now watching the developments with interest. Two...

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John Helmer: MH17 Evidence Tampering Revealed by Malaysia – FBI Attempt To Seize Black Boxes; Dutch Cover-Up of Forged Telephone Tapes; Ukrainian Air Force Hid Radar Records; Crash Site Witness Testimony Misreported

Yves here. Hoo boy. The idea that eastern Ukrainian insurgents or Russia would target a passenger plane never made any sense (unless the plane had high-priority targets or cargo), although it’s always been possible that the downing of MH17 was an accident, and some efforts to explain what happened are based on that idea. For Malaysia, starting with Prime Minister Mahathir, to stand up and say the US tried to cook the record to pin the crash on Russia is remarkable. By John Helmer, the longest...

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Highlights in the Week Ahead

Three events that will capture the market's attention next week:  The consequences of the Japanese election, the first look at US Q1 GDP, and the ECB meeting.  The central banks of Turkey and Russia also meet. Both are expected to cut interest rates, following rate cuts in the middle of last week by South Korea, Indonesia, and South Africa.   Japan goes to the polls on July 21 to elect the upper chamber of the Diet.  There is little doubt that the LDP-Komeito coalition will retain...

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13/7/19: BRICS and G7

As a side note: the BRICS now have a bigger share of the world economy than the Euro area and the U.S. combined: In 2019, BRICS combined GDP will surpass (using PPP-adjusted GDP) that of G7 economies, and in 2020, based on IMF forecasts, it will exceed the combined share of the world GDP for the US + EU27 economies.Not a single BRICS economy is currently represented in G7. Dire...

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13/7/19: BRICS Current Account Surpluses: Its Russia and China Story

China and Russia dominate BRICS' current account dynamics and this is not about to change. Both China and Russia have been posting strong current account figures in recent years, and this is not changing with the onset of the Russia sanctions in 2014 and the Trump Trade Wars in 2018. The two economies clearly dominate the emerging markets' current account dynamics in terms of both the sign of the balances (surpluses) and their magnitudes.The caveat for Russia is that its current account...

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7/7/19: 2Q 2019 BRIC PMIs: The Bad, The Ugly, and The Uglier Still

BRIC PMIs for June are out and with them we have 2Q 2019 figures. And the story they tell is two-fold:Fold 1: There is an ongoing Global-scale slowdown in the economy that is broad, sharp and testing the waters of a mild recession approaching Fold 2: The BRICs are barely providing any upside support to the Global momentum. Take Manufacturing: This is simply the 'Uglier' side of the ugly. Global Manufacturing PMI hit 49.8 in 2Q 2019 - statistically, zero growth level, nominally - a...

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