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Tag Archives: Risk

31/10/20: Gold Coins Market is Still Hedging Residual Covid Risk

Sales of the U.S. Mint gold coins have moderated off their pandemic highs, but remain elevated by historical standards, especially controlling for higher gold prices:Since hitting a pandemic-period high of 216,500 oz in March 2020 (the highest sales volume since April 2013), the demand has moderated through June, topped 145,000 in July and 149,000 oz in August, and has been around 91,500 through the four weeks of October. This puts October sales above the last three years' average.Average...

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17/9/20: Exploding errors: COVID19 and VUCA world of economic growth forecasts

Just as I covered the latest changes in Eurozone growth indicators (, it is worth noting the absolutely massive explosion in forecast errors triggered by the VUCA environment around COVID19 pandemic.My past and current students know that I am a big fan of looking at risk analysis frameworks from the point of view of their incompleteness, as they exclude environments of deeper uncertainty, complexity and...

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13/6/20: Gold Coins Sales are Up, and the Markets are Screaming Something New

Some interesting movements in demand for gold coins in recent months, worth watching:Price is up, and volume of sales is quite volatile. Still, sales are hitting highs.Following weaker y/y January and February, March 2020 sales rose almost x10 y/y in volume and average coin sold size rose from 0.5 oz in March 2019 to 0.674 oz in March 2020. April 2020 sales were x3.25 times sales in April 2019 by volume, with average coin size rising to 1.0 oz. May saw a major fall-off in demand m/m but...

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30/4/20: No, Healthcare Systems are Not Lean Startups, Mr. Musk

A tweet from @elonmusk yesterday has prompted a brief response from myself: For two reasons, as follows, it is worth elaborating on my argument a little more:I have seen similar sentiment toward authorities' over-providing healthcare system capacity in other countries as well, including, for example in Ireland, where the public has raised some concerns with the State contracting private hospitals for surplus capacity; and Quite a...

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Michael Markowski: Markets Now At Tipping Point, Ride Will Be Epic.

 Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at The market...

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#MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken

“The Federal Reserve is poised to spray trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy once a massive aid package to fight the coronavirus and its aftershocks is signed into law. These actions are unprecedented, going beyond anything it did during the 2008 financial crisis in a sign of the extraordinary challenge facing the nation.” – Bloomberg Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a fight to offset an economic shock bigger than the financial crisis, and they are engaging every possible monetary...

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