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Tag Archives: Recession

Weighing the Week Ahead: What Should Happen? What Will Happen?

We have a big economic calendar, with featuring reports on sentiment, personal income and spending, and an especially interesting first estimate of Q3 GDP. The election campaign continues at high intensity and the COVID news grabs daily headlines. It is a huge week for corporate earnings, an important independent read on the economy. None of these stories will dominate, allowing investors to choose their own focus. In my continuing effort to call attention to the truly important stories, I...

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14/10/20: BRIC: Composite economic activity indicators Q3 results

We covered in detail strong recovery in BRIC Manufacturing PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html) and fragile recovery in Services PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-services-pmis-q3-results.html). Here is a summary chart:Now, let's take a look at BRIC Composite PMIs for 3Q 2020:Brazil Composite PMI ended Q3 2020 on a reading of 51.6 - an improvement on 31.8 in 2Q 2020. Brazil's Composite PMIs have run sub-50...

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14/10/20: BRIC: Services PMIs Q3 results

BRIC Manufacturing has rebounded strongly from thee pandemic lows, as covered in this post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html. Services PMI for the BRIC economies signal similar, albeit weaker rebound in July-September:Brazil Services PMI stayed in the recession territory in 3Q 2020, with index reading coming in at 47.5, up on 30.3 in 2Q 2020, but still marking a third consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings. Put simply, unlike...

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14/10/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs Q3 results

BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China - economies have posted a significant improvement in Q3 Purchasing Managers Indices in Manufacturing sector:Brazil Manufacturing PMI rose to 62.6 - the highest on record in 3Q 2020 following 42.0 recessionary reading in 2Q 2020. This is a massive rebound from pandemic lows, and the level of 3Q reading puts into question validity or accuracy of the surveys. On a monthly basis, the index was at 64.7 and 64.9 in August and September. Brazil's manufacturing...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Change Course Because of the POTUS Diagnosis?

We have a modest economic calendar including the ISM non-manufacturing index, JOLTS, jobless claims data, and the NFIB index. The Fed minutes from September’s meeting will be released. The Vice-Presidential debate is set for Wednesday. None of this will lead the daily news headlines as everyone monitors President Trump’s condition. This is important for many important reasons not the least of which are national security and the economy. That said, investment decisions can have...

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3/10/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs Q3 2020

Based on July-September data, here are the main takeaways from the BRIC Manufacturing Sector PMIs for 3Q 2020:Brazil Manufacturing PMIs gained serious speed in 3Q 2020 compared to 2Q 2020, rising from a recessionary reading of 42.0 in April-June to signal rapid recovery at 62.6 over the last three months through September. This marks the highest quarterly reading on record for the country Manufacturing sector. Dynamically, growth accelerated in every month since the start of the sector...

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2/10/20: A new mortgage arrears crisis on its way

My latest article on Irish banking sector problems with distressed mortgages is out today in The Currency: There’s a new mortgage arrears crisis on its way, and official Ireland is not ready for itThe Central Bank of Ireland has started publishing new data on mortgage arrears – and the news is not good. An arrears crisis is brewing. The banks, and the state, are woefully unprepared for...

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26/9/20: America’s Scariest Charts: Duration of Unemployment

 Adding to my prior posts covering:Continued unemployment claims: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/26920-americas-scariest-charts_27.html, andInitial unemployment claims and employment: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/26920-americas-scariest-charts_27.htmlHere is analysis of the latest duration of unemployment data, and a look at employment data across past recessions.As usual with all recessions, average duration of unemployment has fallen in the early days of the...

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26/9/20: America’s Scariest Charts: Employment & Initial Unemployment Claims

Starting with initial unemployment claims (continued claims are covered in the earlier post: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/26920-americas-scariest-charts_27.html) through the week ending September 19, 2020, based on non-seasonally adjusted data:Initial unemployment claims fell to 796,015 in the week ending September 12 - marking the lowest number of new claims filed in any week since the start of the COVID19 crisis.The new claims rose back to 824,542 in the week ending September...

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26/9/20: America’s Scariest Charts: Continued Unemployment Claims

Updating my charts for the continued unemployment claims:The latest data is covering the period through September 12, 2020.On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, there were 13,355,586 Americans with continued unemployment claims in the week of September 12, 2020, an increase of 212,869 on the week prior, but 9,438,559 down on the COVID19 peak reached in the week of May 9, 2020. At the lowest point in pre-COVID expansion period, weekly continued claims stood at 1,350,834. In the last 4 weeks...

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