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Tag Archives: Recession

Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?

David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss. Rosenberg notes “Private fixed investment has declined two quarters in a row as of 2019 Q3. Since 1980, this has only happened twice outside of a recession.” Here is the chart he presented. Fixed Investment, Imports, Government Share of GDP Since 1980 there have been five recessions in the U.S.and only once, after the dotcom bust in 2001, was there a recession...

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Technically Speaking: Extreme Deviations & Eventual Outcomes

The good news is that with the market closed yesterday, the extreme extensions of the market did not get any more extreme. Also, it doesn’t change our analysis much from this past weekend’s missive either: “This week, the market pushed those deviations even further as the S&P 500 has now pushed into 3-standard deviation territory above the 200-WEEK moving average.” “There have only been a few points over the last 25-years where such deviations from the long-term mean were prevalent. In...

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Eric Hickman: Recession Is More Likely Than You Think

Eric Hickman is president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc., an advisory firm located in Denver, Colorado specializing in U.S. Treasury bonds. Good economic news over the last couple months belies the fact that a recession could strike as soon as March 2020. That good news has been plentiful: a phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China is presumably close to being signed, the December U.S. Labor jobs report exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve didn’t lower rates at their...

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FPC: Do You Have A “Financial Vulnerability” Cushion?

REGISTER NOW for our most popular workshop: THE RIGHT LANE RETIREMENT CLASS The Westin Austin at the Domain- 11301 Domain Drive, Austin, TX 78758 February 8th from 9-11am. Everyone has heard of having emergency funds, but how many have heard of a financial vulnerability cushion (FVC)? Common, old rule of thumb financial rules typically dictate savings rates, but in times like we currently face should we be doing something different? I know, I know times are great. Markets are hitting...

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MacroView: 2020 Market & Investment Outlook

On Tuesday, Michael Lebowitz and I held private events with our high net worth clients to review our investment strategy and outlook for the rest of the year. The purpose of these events was to provide clarity on portfolio allocation, weightings,  and the risks that could potentially lead to large losses of capital. As we noted in last weekend’s newsletter, we recently took profits in our various portfolio strategies to raise cash slightly, and reduce excess portfolio risk. Given our...

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The Fed Won’t Avert The Next “Crisis,” They Will Cause It.

John Mauldin recently penned an interesting piece: “Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. In the developed world, and especially the US, and even in China, our economic challenges are rapidly approaching that point. Things that would have been easily fixed a decade ago, or even five years ago, will soon be unsolvable by conventional means. Yes, we did indeed need the Federal Reserve to...

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Rosso’s 2020 Reading List – Part II

“A reader lives a thousand lives before he dies… The man who never reads lives only one.” – George R.R. Martin. I’m not sure what I would do without books. On weekends, I can be found in antique stores searching out volumes written in many instances, over 100 years ago from authors most of us never knew existed. These treasures don’t cost much. The words are priceless. I find that absorbing fiction and self-improvement as well as financial or economic titles, fosters an ability to think...

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Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price, and overbought conditions, not to mention valuations, as key reasons why we slightly reduced risk in our portfolios. “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.  In the Equity Portfolios, we reduced our weightings in some of our more extended holdings such as Apple (AAPL,) Microsoft (MSFT), United Healthcare...

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Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October. That doesn’t sound like much, -1.8%, but apart from recent months this would’ve been the third worst result since 2009. Mexico has rarely experienced that kind of seemingly mild contraction. It signals how something has...

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Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized Establishment Survey queries establishments...

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