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Tag Archives: Recession

You Will Never Bring It Back Up If You Have No Idea Why It Falls Down And Stays Down

It wasn’t actually Keynes who coined the term “pump priming”, though he became famous largely for advocating for it. Instead, it was Herbert Hoover, of all people, who began using it to describe (or try to) his Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Hardly the do-nothing Roosevelt accused Hoover of being, as President, FDR’s predecessor was the most aggressive in American history to that point, economically speaking. Roosevelt just took it a step (or seven) further. The principle is of pump...

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Is Inflation Really Under Control

Recently, analysts have been discussing the pros and cons of using negative interest rates to keep the U.S. economy growing.  Despite this, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that he does not anticipate the Federal Reserve will implement a policy of negative interest rates as it may be detrimental to the economy.  One argument against negative interest rates is that they would squeeze bank margins and create more financial uncertainty. However, upon examining the actual rate of inflation we...

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A Time Recession

Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before. The real question, though, is whether the business cycle approach means anything in this day and age. I don’t think it does, and that’s a big part of why there’s so much confusion...

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Never Forget These 10 Investment Rules.

“Psychology is probably the most important factor in the markets, and one that is least understood.” – David Dreman A motive of the financial industry  is to blur the lines between investor and trader. I’m convinced it’s to make investors feel guilty for taking control of their portfolios. After all, Wall Street firms ares the experts with YOUR money. How dare you question them? Sell to take profits, sell to minimize losses, purchase an investment that fits into your risk parameters and...

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The Risen (euro)Dollar

Back in April, while she was quietly jockeying to make sure her name was placed at the top of the list to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB, Christine Lagarde detoured into the topic of central bank independence. At a joint press conference held with the Governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, Lesetja Kganyago, as the Managing Director of the IMF Lagarde was asked specifically about President Trump’s habit of tweeting disdain in the direction of the Federal Reserve’s Chairman, Jay...

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Fundamentally Speaking: Earning Season’s Good, Bad & Ugly

Currently, there are few, if any, Wall Street analysts expecting a recession currently, and many are certain of a forthcoming economic growth cycle. Yet, at this time, there are few catalysts supportive of such a resurgence. Economic growth outside of China remains weak Employment growth is going to slow. There is no massive disaster currently to spur a surge in government spending and reconstruction. There isn’t another stimulus package like tax cuts to fuel a boost in corporate earnings...

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The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number

Every month, and quarter, economists, analysts, the media, and investors pour over a variety of mainstream economic indicators from GDP, to employment, to inflation to determine what the markets are likely to do next. While economic numbers like GDP, or the monthly non-farm payroll report, typically garner the headlines, the most useful statistic, in my opinion, is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). It often goes ignored by investors and the press, but the CFNAI is a composite...

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Michael Markowski: Market Ripens For Correction…Or Crash

Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com Based on my...

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Need A Break From The Inlaws? Your “Turkey Day” Reading List

It’s “Thanksgiving Day,” and after the annual indulging into too much Turkey and dressing, cranberry sauce, and pecan pie, you might just need a break from the family to “do some research.” We are happy to oblige with a few of our most important articles over the last few months as they relate to where we are in the current economic and market cycle. Consumers Are Keeping The U.S. Out Of Recession? Don’t Count On It. “[Who is a better measure of economic strength?] Is it the consumer cranking...

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Can The Fed Fight Wealth Inequality

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says the Fed Can Fight Inequality. Then in a move guaranteed to fail, Kashkari Hires an Obama Economic Advisior as His Guide. Neel Kashkari, the outspoken dove at the Minneapolis Fed, says monetary policy can play the kind of redistributing role once thought to be the preserve of elected officials.When Kashkari, a year into his job, launched an in-house effort in 2017 to examine widening disparities in the economy, he was expecting to generate...

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