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Tag Archives: Real Estate

The Widow-Maker’s Back – Is It Time To Short JGBs?

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, Remember the original widow maker macro trade? More than a decade before short China positions filled hedge fund portfolios. Way before the long VIX trade. And before Australian and Canadian real estate was even worthy of consideration by global macro traders, there was the JGB short. The Japanese Government Bond market was the first truly asinine Central Bank fueled bubble. Macro traders fell over themselves shorting it, hyperbolically...

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As Under Armour Collapses, CEO Builds Elitist Hotel & Whiskey Distillery

Earlier, we reported on Under Armour’s epic stock collapse down over -75% from its September 2015 highs. This is one stock Central Bankers forgot to buy. Today’s stock crash -15% is being felt across Baltimore once again, city streets are eerily calm, as the latest round of millennials who ‘bought the dip’ called in sick this morning. Something tells us, the avocado and toast breakfast will be sadly missed by many…. Bloomberg sums up today’s terrible...

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Average U.S. Home Is Selling After Just 3 Weeks On Market; Fastest Pace In At Least 30 Years

Earlier today Bloomberg shared their thoughts that recent data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), namely the fact that homes are sitting on the market for a record low average of just 3 weeks before being scooped up, pointed to a devastating shortage of housing inventory for sale.  Here was Bloomberg's take: Here’s more evidence that the defining characteristic of the U.S. housing market is a shortage of inventory for sale: Homes are sitting on the market for...

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Paul Manafort Indicted On 12 Counts In Mueller Probe, Surrenders To FBI

 Update: President Trump on Monday called for the focus to be shifted to Hillary Clinton after his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort turned himself into the FBI after being indicted on 12 counts, including conspiracy against the United States."Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren't Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus?????" Trump tweeted. "Also, there is NO COLLUSION!" Update: Sources close to the...

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The “Iron Coffin Lid”: Why The Euphoric Surge In Japanese Stocks Is Coming To An End

Last week, Japan's Nikkei 225 index enjoyed its longest winning streak in history which eventually ending after 16 consecutive days of gains, only to resume rising after a brief one day hiatus. And, as foreign investors once again flood the Japanese stock market, chasing the momentum which has pushed local stocks to levels not seen since 1996, the question on everyone's lips is how much longer can this continue? Offering a decidedly downbeat outlook on Japan's market exuberance, Shannon...

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Norway’s $1 Trillion Wealth Fund Gains 3.2% In Q3 As 70% Equity Allocation Pays Off

Last December we joked that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund had responded to sinking returns and withdrawals required to fund budget deficits by allocating another $130 billion in assets to what appeared to be an already massively overpriced equity bubble in return for an extra 40bps of "expected average annual real returns" (see: Norway Buying $130 Billion In Global Equities As Sovereign Wealth Fund Continues To Bleed Cash).  The extra equity purchases pushed the fund's total equity...

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Here We Go Again: Sacramento Sells $425,000 Pads With No Money Down

There were plenty of bad actors that contributed to the housing crisis in 2009...the banks that underwrote mortgages for people that they knew couldn't afford the home they were buying and then turned around and sold those loans to unsuspecting insurance companies via RMBS structures...the high school janitor making $50,000 a year who suddenly figured he could afford a $750,000 home...the 22-year-old Las Vegas stripper who took out millions in mortgages so she could make "easy money" flipping...

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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to reduce risk was prudent given signs of exuberance – rational, irrational or otherwise. No one is investing in a co-working company worth $20 billion. That doesn’t exist,” Neumann says....

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New Home Sales Better In September, But Which One?

New home sales rose almost 20% in September 2017 from August 2017. In just the one month, the pace of sales surged from a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 561k to 667k. The latter monthly estimate was the highest since 2007, therefore much is being made of that comparison. As usual, it’s a false one. Given the scale of the housing bust, anything still compared to 2007 isn’t good. In fact, unadjusted there were fewer new homes sold in September 2017 (52k) than there were in September 1995...

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Washington Is “The New Rome”

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, I just got back from a trip to Washington, or what I call “New Rome” because Washington’s relationship to the rest of America is the same as Rome’s relations with the agrarian and plebeian citizens of its vast domains in late antiquity. Washington is a parasite that sucks the rest of the country dry. The counties surrounding Washington, D.C., have the highest per capita income of any metropolitan area in the country...

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