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Tag Archives: Primary dealers

Fails Swarms Are Just One Part

There it was sticking out like a sore thumb right in the middle of what should have been the glory year. Everything seemed to be going just right for once, success so close you could almost feel it. Well, “they” could. The year was 2014 and the unemployment rate in the US was tumbling, the result of the “best jobs market in decades.” Real GDP in that year’s two middle quarters was pretty near 5% in both. What wasn’t to like? As GDP-measured output was spiking, so, too, had repo fails. There...

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ISM Spoils The Bond Rout!!! Again

For the second time this week, the ISM managed to burst the bond bear bubble about there being a bond bubble. Who in their right mind would buy especially UST’s at such low yields when the fiscal situation is already a nightmare and becoming more so? Some will even reference falling bid-to-cover ratios which supposedly suggests an increasing dearth of buyers. Bid-to-cover, however, is irrelevant. That only tells you about one part of the buying equation, the number of insiders who show up at...

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Big Things: The Hoard Gets Bigger

I’ve observed a lot that’s purely absurd the last eleven years, trying hard to write up as much of it as I can. It’s worth the effort in terms of education but also to reveal what’s really going on. The catalog is too long to republish here in its entirety. One of the most ridiculous anecdotes, however, was pieced together in March 2016. The dollar world was a smoldering wreck, and because of that global bond yields were still falling. Liquidity hedging was prevalent as anyone...

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Dealer Behavior Leads Us To Another Big (Collateral) Warning

The latest liquidations began right after October 3. Oil shifted toward contango/crash, curves collapsed, even stock markets which looked like they had skated past disruptions early in the year were slammed. It was as if every market hit the same air pocket all at once, therefore identifying (global) liquidity as the major issue driven, of course, by reversing economic and risk assumptions. In other words, money dealers. Usually in these situations we can identify telltale signs of that sort...

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Anticipating How Welcome This Second Deluge Will Be

Effective federal funds (EFF) was 1.92% again yesterday. That’s now eight in a row just 3 bps underneath the “technically adjusted” IOER. If indeed the FOMC has to make another one to this tortured tool we know already who will be blamed for it. The Treasury Department announced yesterday that it will be auctioning off $65 billion in 4-week bills this week (today). The results showed that dealers submitted $152 billion in bids, with $38 billion being accepted. This is supposed to represent a...

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Is It Over?

The world is full of anomalies. It may seem like a paradox, but financial markets are particularly eventful places. Something happens, some people notice, and most often it goes…nowhere. It’s all the time and a constant part of analysis, trying to identify and separate what is truly contained. The global eurodollar monetary system grew so far and so fast in large part because of what was perceived as a robust structure. Chock full of redundancies providing boundless options, flexibility was a...

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Crypto Scam, The Crypto Company, Collapses on Non-Existent Volume

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com   This little pink sheeter ran up 20,000% because MUH Bitcoin, hitting a market cap of $12.6b, and now it's all unraveling under the hard realities of mathematics driven by greed. Even down 65% for the day, on 11,000 shares traded, the market cap is still over $4 billion. According to the most recent financials published with the SEC, the company had a whole $3 million in cash. Revenues were a touch under $500,000 with losses of $1.2...

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Bonds vs. Economists; The Means to the End

As part of its effort to stress its own self-importance, the Federal Reserve conducts a survey of the Primary Dealer members through its New York branch. A written questionnaire is sent out to each bank in advance of every monetary policy meeting. The purpose is for monetary policymakers to make sure that there aren’t any big surprises, that the market, or, in this case, orthodox Economists working for one part of the market, is seeing things consistent with how the Fed wants them to. In...

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Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart here from 54.3 the month prior to 54.8 last month. None of these results, however, are meaningfully different from each other. Rather than indicate...

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Just When You’ve Thought You’ve Seen It All

I could understand it if its track record was spotty, or partially mixed. But the level of denial runs deep and wide with the yield curve. There is a growing chorus of nonsense, really, which is attempting to spin the flattening as some kind of benign technical rotation that through illogical convolution equals the opposite of what is obvious. Let’s start in the right place with the premise that a flattening yield curve doesn’t necessarily mean recession. There is an unhealthy obsession with...

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