Friday , October 22 2021
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Tag Archives: Premium

When Narrative Takes Flight

We have been writing about the Widening Gyre for years more than five years now. In 2016, we wrote about the transition we observed within our national politics from a coordination game to a competition game. In more familiar terms, we argued that our politics were rapidly careening toward the bad equilibrium of a Prisoners’ Dilemma, where everyone knows that everyone knows the only way to survive is to defect against the other participant(s). To rat them out, in the terms of the...

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No Time to Die: China Banks Edition

Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read! Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials sector. Prior to that, Marc was an Institutional Investor ranked analyst on the sell-side, most recently at...

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The Uncontained Spark

President Snow: Seneca… why do you think we have a winner? Seneca Crane: [frowns] What do you mean? President Snow: I mean, why do we have a winner? I mean, if we just wanted to intimidate the districts, why not round up twenty-four of them at random and execute them all at once? Be a lot faster. [Seneca just stares, confused] President Snow: Hope. Seneca Crane: Hope? President Snow: Hope. It is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective. A...

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Zeroism and the Allocator Status Quo

Matthew “Eddy” Edwards is, in his own words, “a former allocator, 2x emerging manager, news junkie, and Twitter doomscroller”, and Rusty and I are delighted to post his thoughtful note here on Epsilon Theory! You can reach Eddy at [email protected] or on Twitter @eddyfication. As with all of our guest contributors, Eddy’s post may not represent the views of Epsilon Theory or Second Foundation Partners, and should not be construed as advice to purchase or sell any security. Milton...

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Unanchored

Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker, and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. His latest book, Alpha Trader, was published this summer to great acclaim (by me, among others!) and can be found at your favorite bookseller. I think it’s an outstanding read, and not just for professional traders. You can contact Brent at his new gig at [email protected]spectramarkets.com and on Twitter at @donnelly_brent. As with all of our guest contributors, Brent’s post...

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The Green Protocol: A New Vision for Crypto, Pt 2

PDF download (subscribers only): The Green Protocol Yggdrasil, the World Tree This is a proposal to plant one billion new trees in North America over the next ten years. I’m not asking for your donation to make this possible. I’m not lobbying local, state and federal agencies to spend tax dollars on this. I’m not writing grant proposals to get foundation or endowment money for planting trees. In fact, I may not plant a single tree myself. This is a project that I hope will...

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Notes from Camp Kotok 2021

Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker, and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. His latest book, Alpha Trader, was published this summer to great acclaim (by me, among others!) and can be found at your favorite bookseller. I think it’s an outstanding read, and not just for professional traders. You can contact Brent at [email protected] and on Twitter at @donnelly_brent. As with all of our guest contributors, Brent’s post may not represent the views of...

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Prophet of the Pandemic

Luke Burgis wrote a book that I think is really good. It’s called Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire in Everyday Life, and we recorded a podcast to talk about it. Luke has graciously agreed to contribute an occasional essay to Epsilon Theory, and there’s lots more great stuff where this came from on Luke’s substack: Anti-Mimetic. Luke has co-created and led four companies in wellness, consumer products, and technology. He’s currently Entrepreneur-in-Residence and Director of Programs...

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Afghanistan and the Common Knowledge Game

Afghani president Ashraf Ghani in happier times, before fleeing Kabul with “four vehicles and a helicopter full of cash” For many months now, the US government knew that the Afghan government would fall to the Taliban. For many months now, the Afghan government knew that the Afghan government would fall to the Taliban. For many months now, every NGO, every foreign government, and every Afghani citizen knew that the Afghan government would fall to the Taliban. For many months...

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The Afghanistan Narratives

Source: US Air Force We usually try to be cautious about drawing narrative conclusions in the middle of a news cycle. OK, maybe we aren’t that cautious about it, but we recognize that those narratives can change pretty quickly. Still, what is happening in Afghanistan is big enough and the attempts in media to frame what it means are significant enough that it warrants a quick look. Let’s first take a look at the network graph of articles published by US-based outlets about...

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