Thursday , November 14 2019
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Tag Archives: Portfolio Management

Consumers Are Keeping The US Out Of Recession? Don’t Count On It.

Just recently, Jeffry Bartash published an interesting article for MarketWatch. “Like a stiff tent pole, consumers are keeping the U.S. economy propped up. And it looks like they’ll have to do so for at least the next year. Strong consumer spending has given the economy a backbone to withstand spine-tingling political fights at home and abroad. Households boosted spending by 4.6% in the spring, and nearly 3% in the summer, to offset back-to-back drops in business investment and whispered talk...

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What We Bought & Sold In Our Equity Portfolio

Each week on RIAPRO (Try For Free For 30-Days) we produce a series of chart books which cover buy/sell/hold recommendations for: Monday – Major MarketsTuesday – Major SectorsWednesday – Our Portfolio HoldingsThursday Rotation – Commodities, Sub-Sectors, Breadth/Participation, or our Watch List.We also produce daily market commentaries, portfolio action alerts, and a variety of special reports for our subscribers. RIAPRO is a robust “Do-it-yourself” research platform which uses our...

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Mauldin: Modern Central Banking Is More Vulnerable Than We Think

Banks are a place where you store your cash, right? Not exactly. When you deposit money in a checking or savings account, you aren’t just letting the bank hold it on your behalf. You are lending the bank that money and the bank is borrowing it. That’s why deposits show as a liability on the bank’s balance sheet. We think of banks as lenders, and they are, but they’re also borrowers. They make money by lending at higher rates than they pay as borrowers, and by leveraging their deposits via...

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Corporate Profits Are Worse Than You Think

Corporate profits are worse than you think. In a recent post, I discussed the deviation of the stock market from corporate profitability. To wit: “If the economy is slowing down, revenue and corporate profit growth will decline also. However, it is this point which the ‘bulls’ should be paying attention to. Many are dismissing currently high valuations under the guise of ‘low interest rates,’ however, the one thing you should not dismiss, and cannot make an excuse for, is the massive...

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15-Extreme Risks & How You Can Navigate Them

Willis Towers Watson’s Thinking Ahead Institute (TAI) recently revealed what it considers the 15-extreme risks facing investors for 2019, as well as for the years ahead. The risks run the gamut from climate change to nuclear contamination. TAI’s research suggests, broadly, there are three hedging strategies available to institutions: Hold cash. Over long historical periods cash has held its real value through both episodes of deflation and inflation but there is no guarantee that this will...

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Margin Debt Is Declining. Are The Bulls In The Clear?

In a recent weekly newsletter (Subscribe for free e-delivery), I discussed the rather dramatic decline of short-interest in the S&P 500 which suggests a high degree of complacency by investors. As Wolf Richter recently noted: “Of the total shares outstanding of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, only 2.6% were out on loan to short-sellers this week, the lowest since early October 2018, and down from 7% during the summer, according to IHS Markit data cited by Bloomberg. Meaning that short-sellers...

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Mauldin: How GE Screwed Over Its Retirees

Remember “defined benefit” pensions? That is the kind of plan in which the employer guarantees the worker a set monthly benefit for life. They are increasingly scarce except for small closely held corporations. The same rules apply for small closely held businesses as for large corporations. These plans can be great tools for independent professionals and small business owners. But if you have thousands of employees, DB plans are expensive and risky. The company is legally obligated to pay...

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CEO Confidence Plunges, Consumers Won’t Like What Happens Next

There is a disparity happening in the country. No, it isn’t political partisanship, but rather “economic confidence.” The latest release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey rose to a three-month high of 96, beat consensus expectations, and remains near record levels. Conversely, CEO confidence in the economy is near record lows. It’s an interesting dichotomy. The chart below shows our composite confidence index, which combines both the University of Michigan and...

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The Bursting Bubble Of “B.S.”

On the surface, middle of the road performance for stocks in the quarter indicated relative calm. Especially coming off strong performance in the first half of the year, there was little cause for concern. Performance was choppy in the quarter, however, as steady, modest gains were repeatedly undermined by significant losses. In addition, a quant quake came out of nowhere and led to massive outperformance of value over growth for a short period of time. Also, out of nowhere overnight repo...

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Mauldin: Social Security Is Screwing Millennials

Social Security is a textbook illustration of how government programs go off the rails. It had a noble goal: to help elderly and disabled Americans, who can’t work, maintain a minimal, dignified living standard. Back then, most people either died before reaching that point or didn’t live long after it. Social Security was never intended to do what we now expect, i.e., be the primary income source for most Americans during a decade or more of retirement. Life expectancy when Social Security...

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