Tuesday , July 27 2021
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Tag Archives: PMI

The Greenback is Bid to Start the Second Half

Overview: Soft Asian manufacturing PMIs weighed on local shares after the S&P 500 set new record highs yesterday.  European shares are recouping yesterday's month-end losses, while US futures indices are bid.  The US 10-year yield is around 1.47%, and European yields are 1-2 bp higher.  The dollar is beginning the quarter on firm footing, making new highs for the year against the Japanese yen (~JPY111.60).  The euro has been unable to resurface above $1.1860 and is at its lowest level in...

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Japan Retains Distinction of being the only G7 Country with Sub-50 PMI Composite

Overview: Federal Reserve officials, lead by Chair Powell, pushed gently against the more hawkish interpretations of last week's FOMC meeting. Tapering not a rate hike was the focus of discussions.  Powell reiterated that price pressures would prove transitory and would ease after the re-opening disruptions settled down.  The implied yield on the December 2022 Eurodollar futures fell for the second day, and the cumulative three basis point decline was the most in a month.   The 10-year yield...

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Potential Fallout From PMI Wars

It’s not really a war so much as somewhat of a disagreement. And it’s not an unfamiliar one, as time and again these things tend to come down to timing. The global economy remains synchronized, only certain parts of it go ahead first before others then the rest end up joining. Carried into the realm of PMI’s, diverges in sentiment more about when than what.The first part of each month brings with it the latest flood of these things (though IHS Markit produces an initial “flash” estimate...

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Don’t Believe Sino-American Thaw or Fed’s Corporate Bond Divestment is a Policy Signal

Overview:  Market participants appear to be biding their time ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report as they digest recent developments.  The dollar is firmer, equities are mixed, and benchmark bond yields are a little firmer.  China and Hong Kong shares continue their recent underperformance, while most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region edged higher.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is easing from record highs.  The utility and materials sectors are the largest drags.  US futures are...

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CNY Softens after PBOC’s Move; Equities Advance on Stronger World Outlook

Overview:  The US dollar fell against most major currencies following the PBOC's modest move to reduce the upward pressure on the yuan.  Follow-through selling was seen earlier today, and sterling reached a new three-year high.  However, the dollar found a bid in the European morning, while the Scandi currencies held on to most of their earlier gains.  Emerging market currencies were mixed, and the yuan eased.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index's four-day advancing streak is at...

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Eerie Calm Ahead of the Weekend

Overview:  Perhaps the dramatic volatility seen earlier this week has sapped the market's energy, and an eerie calm appears to be taking hold ahead of the weekend.  Despite the strong showing by US equities yesterday, the spillover into the Asia Pacific was limited.  Equity markets were mixed, Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and India among the strongest advancers, while China, Hong Kong, and South Korea slipped.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was posting small gains to pare this week's minor net...

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Greenback Slips into the Weekend

Overview:  Many narratives link the prospect of higher capital gains tax on about a third of 1% of Americans as the catalyst for losses in US equities yesterday (and Bitcoin) and weakness in some global shares today.  Of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region, only Japan, which is reimposing a formal emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, and two other prefectures, fell.  India, which is experiencing a dramatic surge in the contagion, fell.  European shares are trading lower, and the Dow Jones...

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The Euro Approaches $1.19 as Corrective Pressures Persist and US 10-year Yield Slips Below 1.65%

Overview:   The heavier tone for the dollar that emerged last week persists.  The euro is testing the 200-day moving average (~$1.1890) since breaking below it last month for the first time since May 2020.  The greenback has steadied after falling to an eight-day low against the yen near JPY109.60.  The dollar-bloc currencies are trading heavier.  Emerging market currencies are mixed, leaving the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index little changed after pushing higher for the past two...

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5/4/21: Heating up inflationary risks

No, hyperinflation and, in fact, high inflation, ain't coming, yet. But the concerns with both are rising... Both, input prices and output prices have accelerated in March, compared to February in Markit's Manufacturing PMIs. Headline Markit statement says: "Conditions in the global manufacturing sector continued to brighten at the end of the first quarter, despite the potential for growth to be stymied by rising cost inflationary pressures and supply-chain disruptions." (Emphasis is mine). ...

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Here’s to a Better Second Quarter

Overview: The global capital markets have begun the new month and quarter on a good note.  Equity markets are encouraged by yesterday's gains in the US.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by Hong Kong, even though earnings reports saw trading halted in around 50 companies.  Europe's Down Jones Stoxx 600 is edging closer to last year's record high, and US futures are trading with a clear upside bias, led by the Nasdaq.  Benchmark bond yields are a little softer, with the US...

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