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Tag Archives: petroleum

Sick Camels, Thin Straws, And The Global Virus (both of them)

Unlike the headline Establishment Survey, the rest of the economic data isn’t surging like it’s 2014 all over again. On the same day the BLS issues the next blowout payroll report, the Census Bureau suggests instead US demand, at least for goods produced overseas, continues to decline at a precipitous pace. Seasonally-adjusted, there had been something of a rebound in the month of December 2019, but that disappeared in these figures for January 2020. It obviously bears all the hallmarks of...

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China, Hurricanes, Inflation; The Inventory Projection

Wholesale sales, seasonally adjusted, bounced back moderately in February 2018 after a sharp decline (revised even lower) in January. Sales in the latest monthly figures are left still lower than in December and only slightly more than in November. This is the familiar aftermath of Harvey and Irma’s aftermath. Unadjusted, year-over-year wholesale sales increased by just 6.9%. As the storm boost starts to fade, it appears that sales levels will start to quiet down again to be more in line with...

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Is U.S. Gasoline Consumption Set To Collapse?

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, U.S. individual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) growth has been flat since June 2017, and the potential end of the VMT growth that started in early 2014 may be an indicator of slowing oil consumption, according to government data compiled by Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. (Click to enlarge) Gasoline is the most consumed petroleum product in the U.S. Last year, motor gasoline consumption averaged about 9.3 million bpd, or 391 million gallons...

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The ‘Unknown Unknowns’ That Threaten U.S. Shale

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, Three years after the oil price crash, the U.S. shale patch is on its second growth phase and is expected to continue to increase its production, at least through the next five years. The global oil markets have become increasingly dependent on U.S. tight oil supply - and the oil industry is still coming to grips with this new reality, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, wrote in a recent article. Current projections...

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Reduced Trade Terms Salute The Flattened Curve

The Census Bureau reported earlier today that US imports of foreign goods jumped 9.9% year-over-year in October. That is the second largest increase since February 2012, just less than the 12% import growth recorded for January earlier this year. In both monthly cases, however, the almost normal rates of increase which would have at least suggested moving closer to a healthy economy (from the view of US demand) were instead boosted considerably by oil price effects. Removing them, US imports...

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WTI/RBOB Spike On OPEC Headlines After Bearish Inventory/Production Data

Update: WTI/RBOB was fading after DOE data but then Kuwait dropped the following meaningless headline: OPEC JMMC RECOMMENDS EXTENSION, DIDN'T FINALIZE DURATION. And the algos took over... *  *  * Last night's API-reported surprise crude build sparked selling that not even Russia/Saudi jawboning could rescue, but DOE data showed the exact opposite with a big crude draw and even bigger gasoline draw. Added to a new record high in US crude production and RBOB is fading and WTI...

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Crude Oil bulls don’t want to see selling start here

The last 5-months Crude Oil has experienced a strong rally and has been much stronger than the S&P 500 (gained 27% more), highlighted in the chart below- CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE This strong rally now has Crude testing what could be an important price zone for one of the worlds most important commodities- CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE The impressive 5-month rally in Crude is now testing the underside of two channels and its 38% retracement level of the 2013 highs/2016 lows at...

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The Cardinal Sin Of International Finance

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com, As Doug Casey has correctly noted, the prime directive of any organism - whether it’s an amoeba or a person or a corporation or a government - is to survive. That’s why the US government protects the petrodollar so zealously. It needs the system to survive. Why Everyone Uses the US Dollar… for Now In the 1970s, the US government struck a series of deals with Saudi Arabia, creating the petrodollar system. The US promised...

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Nebraska Regulators Approve Keystone Pipeline Route Days After South Dakota Leak, Shutdown

TransCanada received its final required pipeline route approval, winning Nebraska’s permission to build its long-delayed Keystone XL crude oil pipeline across the state... just days after a 5,000 barrel spill in South Dakota shut the pipeline. The decision will almost certainly be challenged in court. Just a few short days after 210,000 gallons of crude oil spilled in South Dakota, Bloomberg reports that Nebraska's Public Service Commission voted three to two Monday, removing one...

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WTI Extends Losses After Surprise Build, Crude Production Jumps To Record High

WTI/RBOB extended losses post-API data overnight, but DOE data sparked some algo chaos as a surprise crude build (+2.24mm vs -2.45mm exp) was offset by a bigger than expected gasoline draw (exactly opposite what API reported). In addition, US crude production jumped to a new all-time high - take that OPEC!   API Crude -1.562mm (-2.45mm exp) Cushing +812k Gasoline +520k (-1.85mm exp) Distilates-3.133mm ADOEPI Crude +2.24mm (-2.45mm exp) Cushing +720k Gasoline -3.31mm (-1.85mm exp)...

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