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Tag Archives: PBoC

Little Behind CNY

The framing is a bit clumsy, but the latest data in favor of the artificial CNY surge comes to us from Bloomberg. The mainstream views currency flows as, well, flows of currency. That’s what makes their description so maladroit, and it can often lead to serious confusion. A little translation into the wholesale eurodollar reality, however, clears it up nicely. Demand for foreign exchange outstripped that for yuan for the 26th month in a row, with customers purchasing a net 27.6 billion yuan...

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PBOC RMB Restraint Derives From Experience Plus ‘Dollar’ Constraint

Given that today started with a review of the “dollar” globally as represented by TIC figures and how that is playing into China’s circumstances, it would only be fitting to end it with a more complete examination of those. We know that the eurodollar system is constraining Chinese monetary conditions, but all through this year the PBOC has approached that constraint very differently than last year. The updated balance sheet numbers through August show that unlike in the second half of 2016...

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Swimming The ‘Dollar’ Current (And Getting Nowhere)

The People’s Bank of China reported this week that its holdings of foreign assets fell slightly again in August 2017. Down about RMB 21 billion, almost identical to the RMB 22 billion decline in July, the pace of forex withdrawals is clearly much preferable to what China’s central bank experienced (intentionally or not) late last year at ten and even twenty times the rate of July and August. The US Treasury Department reported yesterday (TIC) that China’s registered holdings of UST’s...

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China: Where A Rising Currency Is Meant To Be Inflationary

As much as officials in Beijing may outwardly fight it, they are still in the “dollar” business. It’s not raw conjecture, either. Though we don’t know the specifics of their policy positions, in this context we don’t need to know them; it’s all right there on the central bank balance sheet. The most prominent thing about China right now is not its economy but its currency. CNY having spent the balance of three years dropping in often globally disruptive fashion (because it wasn’t really about...

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Still Written in Chinese

The world of eurodollars is always going to be hidden. What goes on, really goes on, often sees no light of day. The most basic financing transactions are typically bilateral, meaning that the only people who really know the terms and the reasons are the two counterparties engaged. That is also true if one of those counterparties just happens to be a central bank. Central bankers have in the 21st century quite proudly proclaimed their commitment to transparency. This is very different from...

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The Billionaire Bears Club

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, I don’t regularly watch CNBC, but last week while on vacation, I turned on the Sirius XM radio and was instantly assaulted with Jim Cramer’s shrieking. I was about to turn the channel when he shouted how the “billionaire bears” might finally be catching a break with the stock market downdraft. I have to give Cramer credit, that’s a good line to describe the growing cohort of negative investment legends. Wondering...

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China’s Minsky Moment Is Imminent

Authored by Kevin Smith, Tavi Costa, and Nils Jensen via Crescat Capital, Crescat Capital's Q2 letter to investors shouold be retitled "everything you wanted to know about the looming bursting of the world's biggest credit bubble... but were afraid to ask..." Don't say we didn't warn you... History has proven that credit bubbles always burst. China by far is the biggest credit bubble in the world today. We layout the proof herein. There are many indicators signaling...

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China’s Banks Deliver RMB In June

Updated statistics from the People’s Bank of China shed some light on changing money conditions in RMB. The Big 4 State-owned banks have been the primary liquidity conduit for all policies and activities going back to 2014. These institutions had been since the middle of 2016 increasingly squeezed as to excess funding available to be forwarded into money markets. This despite enormous borrowing at the central bank’s various windows (primarily the MLF). In June, however, the Big banks...

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No Luck China, Either

Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff warned today on CNBC that he was concerned about China. Specifically, he worried that country might “export a recession” to the rest of Asia if not the rest of the world. I’m not sure if he has been paying attention or not, but the Chinese economy since 2012 has been doing just that to varying degrees often just shy of that level. If there’s a country in the world which is really going to affect everyone else and which is vulnerable, it’s got...

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The Mother Of All Bait’n Switches

In light of light inflation measurements, central bankers have no other choice but to step up their rhetoric. Mario Draghi took the mantle earlier this week and has been joined at various points by others. The message they are sending is one that is purposefully muddied. There isn’t left to them any other choice. There are only two pillars holding up markets right now, especially, very especially, stocks. Valuations for shares are in the aggregate stretched to dot-com levels based on the idea...

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