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Tag Archives: PBoC

The Fed and other Central Banks in the Week Ahead

The Fed's hawkish turn was extended.  It now seems clearer to more participants that to maximize the Fed's flexibility later in the year, it will need to raise rates in March.  With the Fed still buying bonds, albeit at a slower pace, the January 26 meeting is all but ruled out.  The pricing of the Fed funds futures reflects more than a 95% chance of a hike at the mid-March meeting.  The futures strip favors a hike each quarter.  It has three hikes fully discounted and about an 80% chance of...

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Inflation and Geopolitics in the Week Ahead

The Omicron variant may be less fatal than the earlier versions, but it is disrupting economies.  The surge in the Delta variant well into Q4 in the US and Europe was already slowing the recoveries.  Investors will likely take the high-frequency real sector data with the proverbial pinch of salt until January data available beginning later this month.    While the tribalist approach, exemplified by "team transition" and "team permanent" debates about inflation, the recovery is precarious. ...

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Taper Rejection: Mao Back On China’s Front Page

Chinese run media, the Global Times, blatantly tweeted an homage to China’s late leader Mao Zedong commemorating his 128th birthday. Fully understanding the storm of controversy this would create, with the Communist government’s full approval, such a provocation has been taken in the West as if just one more chess piece played in its geopolitical game against the United States in particular.No. The Communists really mean it. Mao’s their guy again. No. Let's recall that Chairman...

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The Historical Monetary Chinese Checklist You Didn’t Know You Needed For Christmas (or the Chinese New Year)

If there is a better, more fitting way to head into the Christmas holiday in the United States than by digging into the finances and monetary flows of the People’s Bank of China, then I just don’t want to know what it is. Contrary to maybe anyone’s rational first impression that this is somehow insane, there’s much we can tell about the state of the world, the whole world and its “dollars”, right from this one key data source. And the timing is equally as festive; holidays...

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Yuan Rises Despite China’s Move and the Fed’s Course is Set Regardless of Today’s CPI

Overview:  After US equity indices posted their first loss of the week,  Asia Pacific and European equities fell.  While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time since Monday, Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting its third consecutive decline.  US futures are trading slightly firmer.  The US 10-year Treasury yield is up about 1.5 bp to 1.51%, which is about eight basis points higher than it settled last week when the sharp drop in equities saw the yield fall to almost 1.33%, the lowest...

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Last Week Euro$, This Week Starts w/RRR; Or, The Twelve Days of Deflation

The Euro$ curve inversion of 2018 wasn’t an isolated case by any means. Along with all the other “bond market” stuff, these together had been a useful warning three years ago for reality as it unfolded the opposite way from the narrative about accelerating growth and inflation. Not just the one curve kinked, an escalating stream of alarms. There was the dollar’s exchange value which “unexpectedly” went upward. The US Treasury curve became flatter and flatter until, May 29, 2018, the...

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Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity)

Over the past week and a half, Treasury has rolled out the CMB’s (cash management bills; like Treasury bills, special issues not otherwise part of the regular debt rotation) one after another: $60 billion 40-day on the 19th; $60 billion 27-day on the 20th; and $40 billion 48-day just yesterday. Treasury also snuck $60 billion of 39-day CMB’s into the market on the 14th to go along with the two scheduled 119-day CMB’s during this period.That’s a quick $220 billion above and beyond what was...

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China’s Central Bank Condition Has Consistently Told You Everything About Global (not) Inflation

For several years now, we’ve been harping constantly and consistently about what’s on the PBOC’s balance sheet; or, really, what conspicuously isn’t in very specific line-item numbers. Briefly, simply, if dollars are being extended into China, as has been claimed over the years, particularly the last few, they’re going to show up on the Chinese central bank’s balance sheet. Specifically, foreign assets. More specifically, foreign reserves. There’s a difference between those two which...

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China, Australia, and The European Way Into Reverse Repo

We are going to start here with Europe before heading to Australia and then getting to China – and then currency. Why the ECB? It is going through the same pangs of dissatisfaction as its cousin the Federal Reserve had last summer. Like the Fed in 2020, Europe’s central bank in 2021 has climbed to the end of its grand strategy review and following its own come to the same conclusion as that other.Symmetric inflation target requiring more nuanced forward guidance. If you aren’t distracted...

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From China: Dollar, Deflation, And The RRRest

It’s not necessarily a discrepancy so much as maybe looking at the same thing from a different point of view. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reports on, among other things, the widest definition of foreign assets being under its whole national umbrella. Yet, the agency publishes balances denominated not in CNY, either US$’s or SDR’s (hey, they can dream!) instead. The country’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PROC), owns, holds, and manages (a...

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