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Tag Archives: payrolls

Do Rising ‘Global’ Growth Concerns Include An Already *Slowing* US Economy?

Global factors, meaning that the wave of significantly higher deflationary potential (therefore, diminishing inflationary chances which were never good to begin with) in global bond yields the past five months have seemingly focused on troubles brewing outside the US. Overseas turmoil, it was called back in 2015, leaving by default a picture of relative American strength and harmony.The rest of the world’s economic system hasn’t really come back much, and there’s much to suggest we’ve...

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No Inflation In These Payrolls

Payrolls for the month of June were a mixed bag, in that the payroll data was better than expected at the same time nothing else was. After a couple months of ho-hum gains for the Establishment Survey, government hiring (mostly) boosted the latest monthly figure to +853,000. This brings the 6-month average up to +543,000, which is either really good and pointing to a reopening economy or not nearly enough because it doesn’t point to anything more than a reopening economy.Right away,...

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Weekly Market Pulse: 1984

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. George Orwell, 1984 I have said many times and believe deeply that our job as investors is not to predict the future but merely to interpret the present as accurately as we can. I’ve also said and believe deeply that doing so isn’t nearly as easy as it sounds. We have numerous cognitive biases working against us, way too many to name here. I probably have a cognitive bias that affects...

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UST Yields, Reverse Repo, and…Payrolls

February’s cold winter blast throughout the Southern United States was supposed to have been the extent of the weakness. The unusual and unusually severe freeze caused a great deal of havoc, making its way very quickly into economic data. The recovery was said to have been on a winning streak (vaccines, gov’t payments, etc.) so it seemed the easiest correlation more likely the explanation.In terms of the Establishment Survey, or payroll report, this didn’t really happen. The low-point...

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Can We Reconcile Jobless Claims To Payrolls?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that in the month of March 2021 somewhere around 916,000 payrolls were added back to the economy. I have to disclaim the figure simply because the statistics used to create it aren’t really all that precise; piecing together data from a survey of 145,000 business establishments, a fraction of the economy’s total, the government comes up with a 90% (only 90%) confidence interval that’s a few hundred thousand in breadth.In other words, what the...

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Reopening 2

Last Friday’s March 2021 payroll report exceeded expectations in nearly every category. Analysts were hoping for something like the ADP’s private employment gains (+517k), somewhere in the ballpark of 550,000 to 600,000. Instead, the BLS thinks the whole economy had added between 803,700 and 1,028,300 (90% confidence). This translated into the “headline” of +916,000, of which +780,000 in the private sector (the balance due to government re-hiring). Unquestionably a good month, however...

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Payrolls Everywhere Else

At first glance, the numbers weren’t bad. Maybe even borderline OK. The headline payroll figure nearly doubled consensus estimates, even better when taking into account only private payrolls even after ADP earlier this week had reported the opposite. Topline, the Establishment Survey gained 379,000 in February 2021, of which 465,000 were reportedly added to the private economy (government employment shrank by 86,000). The problem, such that it is one, the combined leisure & hospitality...

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Old Numbers Show Us Why There’ll Be New Checks

If the payroll numbers are old news because they aren’t supposed to matter anymore, what with TGA drawdowns and vaccines, then JOLTS figures one month further behind them must count for even less. Gradation does factor here, though, and that’s why it’s important to keep the current and slightly-in-arrears data in mind.What I mean is that the stimulus-frenzy narrative does begin by recognizing how “things are bad.” In fact, that’s the whole point behind the desire for Uncle Sam writing out...

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What Happened To The ‘Bring Everything Back’ Function?

The good news, such that it might be, is that the BLS – using data from the Census Bureau – believes that the American population is slowing down. According to the latest Civilian Non-institutional population estimates for January 2021, published alongside the current payroll report, the count was adjusted downward by around 400,000 consistent with the same kind and level revisions of the prior couple years.Demographic trends like this aren’t normally taken for a positive. But...

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Oil’s Recurrent Re-Curving

The post-Pfizer vaccine rush pushed most of the contango out of the WTI futures curve. The aftermath of the Georgia Senate vote, and with it dreams of even larger, more carefree fiscal “stimulus”, drained all the rest. As of this week, the entire crude curve is once more contango-free; backwardation front to back.The physical markets have been able to fundamentally rebalance. The major worry had been due to a precarious buildup of gasoline stocks, which, even as seasonal (winter)...

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