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Tag Archives: Nomura

Global Stocks Sharply Lower As Bond Yields Hit New Record Lows; Oil Slides Below $50

The overnight market action has so far been a repeat of yesterday's, when global bond yields relentlessly slid to fresh record lows around the globe following the launch of the ECB's corporate bond monetization program, and which unlike in recent days has been seen increasingly as a "risk off" signal, pressuring worldwide equities sharply lower. Indeed, Asia was down 1% and various European bourses flirting with a 2% drop, with US equity futures down about 0.6%, but the biggest story once...

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Why China Is Being Flooded With Oil: Billions In Underwater OPEC Loans Repayable In Crude

When the price of oil was above $100, many of the less developed oil exporting OPEC members decided to capitalize on the high price and cash out by taking loans using the precious liquid as collateral very much the same way corporate CEOs use their inflated stock (thanks to buybacks they authorize) to issue loans against said stock. And why not: even if the price of oil were to drop, they could just pump more until the principal is repaid. However, few oil exporters anticipated such an acute...

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The ECB Met With Goldman, Other Banks At Shanghai G-20 Meeting, Allegedly Leaking March Stimulus

On May 18, 2015, the ECB's Benoit Coeure held a closed-door speech under "Chatham House" rules in which he leaked to an audience of hedge funds in London that "the central bank would moderately front-load its purchases in its quantitative easing program because of the seasonal lack of market liquidity in the summer." The reaction was an instant 50 pips drop in EURUSD as one or more funds decided to ignore the "rules", and promptly traded on the material, market moving leak. The problem for...

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Futures, Crude Unchanged Ahead Of Draghi As Parabolic Move In Steel, Iron Ore Continues

One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour.  However, unlike last month's "quad-bazooka", this time the market expects...

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U.S. Futures Flat After Oil Erases Overnight Losses; Dollar In The Driver’s Seat

In another quiet overnight session, the biggest - and unexpected - macro news was the surprise monetary easing by Singapore which as previously reported moved to a 2008 crisis policy response when it adopted a "zero currency appreciation" stance as a result of its trade-based economy grinding to a halt. As Richard Breslow accurately put it, "If you need yet another stark example of the fantasy storytelling we amuse ourselves with, juxtapose today’s Monetary Authority of Singapore policy...

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Asia’s Largest Clothing Retailer Plummets After Slashing Guidance By A Third; Blames Strong Yen

It didn't take long for the impact of the stronger yen, and the weak global economy, to manifest themselves on the company that is Asia largest clothing retailer. Moments ago, shares of Japan's clothing empire Fast Retailing, whose most prominent brand is Uniqlo, plunged by 10% sending its stock price to the lowest since June 2013, after the company cut its profit forecast made just four months ago by a third from JPY180 billion to JPY120 billion (well below the JPY169 consensus) a five year...

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Nomura’s Bob “The Bear” Janjuah: “The Question Is What Would Be Necessary For The Fed To Do QE Or NIRP”

The latest from Nomura's Bob "the bear" Janjuah Power of the Fed's words waning? I wanted to update my two earlier notes from this year, published on 7 January (link) and 4 March (link). The two specific drivers for this update are outlined below and are linked to each other and to the two notes referenced above: 1 – The rally off of the February lows in risk assets has been marginally stronger than I had earlier anticipated, but in particular has lasted a fortnight longer than I had...

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“There Is A Lot Of Fear In The Market” – Stocks, Futures Slide After Yen Soars

Two days after stocks slid in a coordinated risk-off session, and one day after a DOE estimate of US oil inventories sent US stocks surging while the failed Allergan-Pfizer deal unleashed torrential hopes of a biotech M&A spree leading to the single best day for the sector in 5 years, sentiment has again shifted, this time due to a violent surge in the Yen as the market keeps testing the resolve of the Japanese central bank to keep its currency weak, and so far finding it to be...

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USDJPY Crashes, Drags Equities With It As Gold Soars

Ever since the USDJPY breached the 110 support level three days ago for the first time in 17 months, the pressure on this all important FX carry cross has been rising, and then overnight, following the latest bout of recurring and increasingly ignored jawboning by various Japanese officials, the Yen soared, with the USDJPY plunging first below 109 and then moments ago dropping as low as 108.02 before rebounding modestly, dragging US equity futures lower with it.   Today's latest drop...

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“The Bounce Has Run Its Course” Bob ‘The Bear’ Janjuah Warns S&P Heading To 1700s

Nomura's Bob Janjuah warend in January that "the bubble implosion can't be fixed this time," and, as he explains in his latest note, he is pleased with all six of his key forecasts for 2016... In particular on Commodities, with his expectation that crude would trade below $30 (the price per barrel fell from $37 in early January to a low so far of $26 in February).   And on Rates, the 30yr UST yield fell from 2.95% in early January to a low so far of 2.49% in February,...

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