Sunday , September 15 2019
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Tag Archives: newsletter

Has The Narrative Been All Priced In? 09-13-19

The Bullish Narrative Is It All Priced In? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha The Bullish Narrative This past week was built for the “bulls” as just about every item on their “wish list.” was fulfilled. From a “trade deal” to more “QE,” what more could you want? Trade Deal Near? Concerning the ongoing “trade war,” our prediction that Trump would begin to back peddle on negotiations to get a “deal done”...

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Bulls Regain The Narrative As They Want To Believe 09-06-19

Market Review & Update The Last Hoorah? They Want To Believe Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out 6-points about the market as the risk to the downside outweighed the potential reward.  Historically, September is one of the weakest months of the year, particularly when it follows a weak August. The market remains range bound and failed at both the 50-dma...

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Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument

Market Review & Update Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Really! Another week of nowhere?  This is the same chart from last week, updated, but here is the salient point. “This has been an impossible market to effectively trade as rhetoric between the White House, the Fed, and China has reached a fevered pitch.” Don’t fall into the...

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Powell Fails, Trump Rails & The Failure Of Negative Rates 08-23-19

Trump & Powell Square Off Negative Yields Everywhere Why The Fed Won’t Go Negative Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Trump & Powell Square Off Let’s start with a simple chart: This has been an impossible market to effectively trade as rhetoric between the White House, the Fed, and China, has reached a fevered pitch.  On Friday, several things happened which have at least temporarily significantly...

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The “Trade War” Is Over, Trump Just Doesn’t Realize It Yet.

On Tuesday, the markets bid higher following a statement from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office that tariffs will commence on September 1st, but that some products will be delayed until December 15th. To wit: “…some tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 as planned, ‘certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent. Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing...

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Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending 08-16-19

Quick Review Listen To The Yield Curve Message No One Ever Says Sell Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Quick Review Do you love #volatility yet?  Last week the market swung wildly back on forth on “trade talks,” “tariff relief,” inverted yield curves, and recession fears to finish the week on “hopes” banks will rescue the markets once again. The bounce on Friday, was not unexpected as the market had...

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Risk Happens Fast. Is The Selling Over? 08-09-19

Risk Happens Fast Is The Selling Over? Risk Happens Slowly, Too. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Risk Happens Fast Over the last few weeks, we’ve been discussing the potential for a correction due to the extreme extension of the market above the 200-dma. To wit: “In the very short-term, the market is grossly extended and in need of some correction action to return the market to a more normal state. As...

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Fed Rate Cut – Too Little, Too Late, As Trump Hikes Tariffs 08-02-19

Review & Market Update Risk Is Now Elevated Low Yields Don’t Support Higher Valuations Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update I am on vacation this week, but there is so much going on I couldn’t miss penning a few quick views. I have also solicited some help from some friends.  First, let’s review where we are from last week.  “While the market is rallying in anticipation of...

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Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19

Review & Market Update Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard The Real Crisis Is Coming Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in...

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Why The Fed Could Cut By 50bps & Why It Won’t Matter 07-19-19

Review & Market Update Why The Fed Could Cut By 50bps Why It Won’t Matter Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out the bull and bear case for the market: The Bull Case For 3300 Momentum Stock Buybacks Fed Rate Cuts Stoppage of QT Trade Deal The Bear Case Against 3300 Earnings Deterioration Recession No Trade Deal/Higher Tariffs Credit-Related Event (Junk...

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