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Tag Archives: Neel Kashkari

The Potential For Yield Plunge As Dovish Theater

Two on the same day, likely not coincidence. The next stage of “dovishness” may be upon us. It won’t be rate cuts; those won’t happen until all other excuses have been exhausted first. Jay Powell’s confused gang won’t give in until kicking and screaming there’s really nothing else left. The Fed “pause” isn’t working. To up the ante a bit, in speeches yesterday Fed Governor Lael Brainard and Minneapolis branch President Neel Kashkari extolled the virtues of symmetry. Inflation has been...

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Hawkish

At their December 2017 policy meeting, the FOMC majority voted to increase the monetary policy targets (RRP & IOER) by an additional 25 bps. It was the fifth such move dating back to December 2015. It was not, however, a unanimous decision. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both opposed the “rate hike.” At a news conference in January, Evans tried to explain his objections to the media. He said, bluntly, what any rational person would have...

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Key Events In The Coming Week: ECB Taper, Q3 GDP And Durables

The main even this week will be the ECB's taper announcement on Thursday where consensus expects the ECB to announce a QE extension of €30bn per month for 9 month until Sep-18, with potential extension after. Net purchases between now and Dec-17 will continue at €60bn per month as planned. To cope with rate hike expectations, the ECB is also expected to strengthen forward guidance. In Canada, the BoC is no longer expected to hike rate this Wednedsay, instead, it will likely have a gradual...

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Key Events In The Coming Week: CPI, Retail Sales And FOMC Minutes

In the traditionally quiet post-payrolls week, attention will focus on the US CPI report, retail sales and FOMC minutes as well as the Catalonia vote and Eurozone industrial production. Separately, we have UK construction, Chinese PMIs, Japanese BoP and inflation in the Scandies. A breakdown of the key events this week from BofA: FOMC minutes and CPI in the US This week, the FOMC releases minutes from their September 20 meeting. Focus is on future hikes and recent low inflation. On Friday...

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Here Is Where The Volatility Is…

Unbelievable vol in the prediction markets over the next Fed chair. Checked last night and Neel Kashkari, the super dove,  was over 30 cents.   John Taylor, the rules-based Stanford prof,  was up around 20 cents.   Kevin Warsh, who leans hawkish and anti-bubblista, maintains the pole position. The selection of the next chair will be a big market moving event.  Hawk or dove? We will try and post the graphic at the same time tomorrow to see where the market stands on the next Fed chair....

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The Week’s Key Events: All Eyes On The ECB

With the US markets closed today, market events this week will be dominated by G10 central bank meetings, among which the ECB stands out, but also notable will be the RBA, BoC and Riksbank. Consensus does not expect policy changes yet. There is also a busy calendar for the UK (PMIs, housing, IP and trade balance) along with GDP/IP releases elsewhere. In EMs, there will be monetary policy meetings in Brazil, Poland and Malaysia. Brazil BCB is expected to cut rates by 100bp. Central bank...

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An Open Letter To The Fed’s William Dudley

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, Dear Mr. Dudley, Your recent remarks in the wake of last week’s FOMC statement were notably unhelpful. In particular, your excuses for further rate hikes to prevent crashing unemployment and rising inflation stunk of rotten eggs. Crashing Unemployment Quite frankly, crashing unemployment is a construct that’s new to popular economic discourse, and a suspect one at that. Years ago, prior to the nirvana of globalization, the potential for...

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Dear Fed, It’s Not “Really Hard To Spot Bubbles”

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,  Here are some visual aids to help the Fed spot the housing bubble. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was the latest Fed official to claim in an essay – thus following in the time-honored footsteps of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke – that “spotting bubbles is hard,” that the Fed cannot see them, and that if it could see them, it shouldn’t do anything to stop them because it had only “limited policy...

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Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

The key highlights in the coming week are the Fed minutes, the Eurogroup meeting on Greece, the OPEC meeting and Bank of Canada rate decision. We also get GDP releases in the US, Eurozone, and UK, while a murder (or gaggle) of Fed speaker will highlight virtually every single day, starting with 4 today. Also there will be monetary policy meetings in Colombia, South Africa, Korea, Hungary, Thailand and Ukraine. Ratings in Kuwait&Qatar In the US, key economic releases this week are the...

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Key Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

In this holiday-shortened week (markets closed for Good Friday), focus turns to several inflation prints in G10 in the week ahead, with US and UK inflation data likely to get the most attention. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday. Away from the US, the street expects the Bank of Canada to remain on hold, keeping the overnight rate target at 0.5%. Despite recent improvement in some economic data, slack...

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