Saturday , July 11 2020
Home / Tag Archives: Millennials

Tag Archives: Millennials

21/5/20: Weekly Unemployment Claims: Updated

In the previous post, I have updated one of the charts relating to the U.S. labor market, namely the chart on employment https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/21520-horror-show-of-covid19.html. The data used is a mixture of monthly employment numbers and within-month weekly unemployment claims.For consistency, here is the chart plotting weekly unemployment claims based on half-year cumulative numbers:

Read More »

21/5/20: The Horror Show of COVID19 Unemployment

New initial claims data is out for last week, and so time to update one of my scary charts: Here is a summary table: At 2,174,329 new claims filed in the week ending May 16th, the lowest number in weekly new claims since the start of the COVID19 pandemic, it's quite tempting to say that things are improving in the labor markets. Alas, last week's print was greater than the entire recession period combined prints of four past recessions.Cumulative first claims filed in the last 9...

Read More »

15/5/20: Generational Effects of Ultra Low Interest Rates

Just because jobs are so plentiful and careers are so rewarding in terms of potential growth in life cycle income. the Millennials are really cheering their future in the Social Mobility Central, the US of A... oh, wait, sorry, theatre of absurd is so 1990s...Here is the chart showing returns on savings for the already financially-distressed younger generations, updated through March 2020: Things are ugly. In March 2020, retail nominal deposit rates for 3 months-duration Certificates of...

Read More »

3/5/20: Updated: The Scariest Chart in Economics

Updating one of the two 'Scariest Charts' in economics with the latest data - preliminary, through April 25, 2020: This goes hand-in-hand with the earlier chart here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/3520-updated-shocking-wave-of-jobs.html.  The speed and the depth of jobs destruction in the U.S. during the last two months has been beyond precedent. 

Read More »

23/4/20: U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Heading into COVID19 Disaster

Adding to the two scariest charts in economic history (see https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/1942020-two-scariest-charts-in-economic.html), a third chart, showing changes in the U.S. labor force participation rates during and following recessions: The above clearly shows that 2008-2009 recession has been unique in the history of the U.S. economy not only in terms of the unprecedented duration of unemployment (link above), but also in terms of the scale of exits from the labor...

Read More »

19/4/2020: Two Scariest Charts in Economic History

I have been posting quite a bit on U.S. unemployment and jobs destruction numbers coming from the COVID-19 pandemic. So here are two charts to watch into the future, and I will be updating these throughout the crisis here.The first chart plots evolution of non-farm payrolls index for each official recession. I used as the index base average payroll numbers for 6 months prior to the first month of the recession. I then compute and plot the index from month 1 of the recession through the...

Read More »

16/4/20: Four Weeks of True Unemployment Numbers: #Covid19

The U.S. has added 5.245 million more unemployment claims in the week ending April 11, 2020, with additional 9,000 claims added to the April 4, 2020 week total. In summary,Week ending March 21: official unemployment figures rose 3,307,000 Week ending March 28: new claims 6,867,000 Week ending April 4: new claims 6,615,000 Week ending April 11: new claims 5,245,000 Four weeks total is now 22,034,000. As noted...

Read More »

13/4/2020: Four Weeks of Unemployment Spikes: U.S. Jobs Losses in #Covid19

COVID-19 social toll: according to Deutsche Bank Research, since the end of the 2008-2009 Great Recession through mid-March 2020, the U.S. total new jobs creation amounted to ca 22 million jobs. Since then, the economy has lost over 16.8 million jobs over the first three weeks of the pandemic, and according to the DB forecast, the U.S. is now on-track to lose 25 million jobs over the four weeks, once last week numbers come in. Week ending March 21: official unemployment figures rose 3.3...

Read More »

28/1/2020: Federal Tax Revenues Over Time

Via the @SoberLook, WSJ's data / charts newsletter, a neat summary of changes in the U.S. federal taxation base over the years: What does it tell us? In the 1940s-1960s, the share of excise, inheritance and other taxes, plus the share of corporation taxes in total federal tax revenues ranged above 30 percent, declining from around 45 percent in the 1940s to roughly 35-36 percent in the 1960s. Over the last decade, that share was around 14-15 percent. The burden of taxation, instead, has...

Read More »

13/12/19: UK Vote and Younger Voters

On foot of the UK General Elections results, here is a telling sign of the changing generational effects on voting with some questions for the U.S. 2020 election: Given the above numbers, the 'younger voters tide of change' expected in 2020 in the U.S. elections is a function of two factors: turnouts and demographic concentrations. We are, of course, yet to get this data from the UK polls.Worth thinking about these, if you are a political analyst.

Read More »