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Tag Archives: Mexico

Markets Take Collective Breath and Beijing Tweaks Fixing Mechanism

Overview:  The surging pandemic sapped the risk-taking appetites as some investors hunker down for what could be a volatile period ahead.  The S&P 500 lost nearly 3% at its lows before rebounding 1% in late dealings.   However, the US's fiscal stimulus remains highly likely even if not immediate, and more intensive trade talks between the UK and EU have already begun. The spread of the virus also means policymakers must be vigilant in their response, and many countries will need to...

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Synchronized (still)

Their experience with COVID has been different in each case. Their response to the outbreak and pandemic hardly uniform. Mexico, for example, has reported 855,000 cases of the coronavirus from which more than 86,000 have died (or were found to have the disease when they died). Japan, on the other hand, just 93,000 cases with only 1,600 fatalities. We all know the US stats (it is, after all, the home stretch of this highly contentious quadrennial election season).Some lockdowns, not others....

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Sobering Germans To The Mexican and Indian “V”

The original “V” narrative was simple and straightforward. The economy was turned off by governments prioritizing modeled simulations of something like the Black Death, but it would be easy enough to turn it right back on especially with the aid of so much “stimulus” being added in every possible way. Monetary, fiscal, you name it.Piece of cake. Legitimizing the choice of overreacting to disease projections. The very fact the “V” has already shifted is itself a big clue. A cakewalk it...

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Is There Enough?

It’s just not fast enough. And with the labor market spitting out numbers across a broad economic cross-section that look increasingly tired suggesting an economy running out of momentum, there’s the added urgency of time. Late summer figures still aren’t close to where they need to be even though when you view them in isolation they can look tremendous.Start with PMI’s, a bunch of them from last week and early this week. Many are the highest in many months, years for quite a few. But...

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The Day After

Overview:  President Trump's tweet announced that negotiations with the House Democrat leadership had collapsed, and there will be no further talks until after the election. Many economists had been removing it from their Q4 GDP projections, but the market was caught wrongfooted.  Risk came off.  Equities were sold.  Emerging markets were sold, and the dollar and yen were bought.  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were at session highs and reversed to session lows, and the yield curve stopped...

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Hope Springs Eternal

Overview:  Speculation that a new round of fiscal stimulus from the US is possible is encouraging risk-taking today.  Many large Asian centers were closed for holidays today, and a technical problem prevented the Tokyo Stock Exchange from opening.  Nevertheless, the markets that were open rose by 1% or more, including Australia and India.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 firmed to new nine-day highs, and US shares are trading with an upside bias as well.  Benchmark 10-year yields are...

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Sentiment Remains Fragile Ahead of the Weekend

Overview: The dramatic week is finishing on a quieter note.  The modest gains in US equities yesterday helped the Asia Pacific performance today.  Most markets but China and Hong Kong pared the weekly losses, and easing regulations in Australia spurred a rally in financials that saw its stock market close higher on the week.  However, the coattails were not long enough to lift Europe.  A record number of virus cases in the UK and France dampened the mood, and most markets are off around...

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Brief Summary Of Where Things Stand Getting Closer to Q4

Flash PMI’s for September 2020 around the world add more evidence to the possibility of a global slowdown during the economy’s all-important rebound quarter. Q2 was the big downturn, and so it always going to be Q3 where the bounce back would be sharpest. While that has definitely been the case, concerns are mounting for what might follow in Q4. As we’ve seen elsewhere, in too many places, July. It showed up in Europe again; yesterday IHS Markit reporting a sharply lower composite PMI for...

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Darkest Before Dawn

Overview:  The two recent market developments, push lower in stocks, and higher in the dollar is continuing. Tuesday's gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unwound on Wednesday and this is helping drag global markets lower.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session today and many markets (India, Shenzhen, Taiwan, and Korea) fell more than 2% and most others were off more than 1%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is giving back the past two days' gains.  The...

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Risk Appetites Join Tokyo on Vacation

Overview:  Global equity markets are off to a poor start to the week, and the dollar appears to be enjoying a safe-haven bid.  Tokyo markets are closed until Wednesday, while Asia-Pacific stocks tumbled, and the regional index is unwinding last week's gains.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600  is off around 2.7% near midday in Europe.  It is the third down session and looks to be the biggest loss in tat lest three months.  US shares are also trading around 2% lower.  Bond markets are bid, except...

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