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Tag Archives: markets

The Consensus

With government cash being shoveled into personal and corporate bank accounts, US consumers have reported that they are being more optimistic about the state of the economy. Before that, they went on a spending binge as stated unequivocally by historic retail sales figures. Why, then, so much higher spending than improved happiness and certainty while going about it?The University of Michigan’s consumer survey index increased to 86.5 for the month of April 2021, up from 84.9 (revised)...

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Bonds v. Economists 5

Given the historic data for US retail sales, “somehow” the bond market ignored them yesterday (and today). Yields globally fell for the most part, with real yields (TIPS) really discounting the significance of consumers in March. Bonds aren’t buying that this is anything other than temporary.Not surprisingly, the mainstream media refuses not to buy what bonds aren’t. I mean, for the fifth time since 2009, bonds vs. Economists (with mainstream media not content to cheerlead, literally...

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Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 64: What Did THE ECONOMIST Say?

64.0: LIVE! Reaction: Answering The Economist———Ep 64 Intro———Should central bankers fix inequality? Un-change climates? The Economist says, ‘No! They are white knights to be held in reserve; don’t sully them with politics.’ Jeff Snider agrees on the ‘No!’, but for entirely opposite reasons. ———SEE IT——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/izakaminskaTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra...

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Perhaps Just One Word Absent From The Historic Consumer Splurge

Enormous. Terrific. Unbelievable. Biggest ever. The superlatives for US consumer spending during the month of March 2021 are appropriate, and for once they aren’t caused by some artifact of arithmetic or some other trick. While there are absolutely some base effects within the numbers, these levels of retail sales are far and away more than those. It’s so ridiculous that there’s really little purpose in producing charts since all the estimates one after another just print way, way off...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 63; Part 3: To (be)Labor This Again

63.3 Why You Should Not Be Happy with 6% Unemployment———Part 3 Summary———America’s unemployment rate is a miraculously low 6% – a remarkable achievement. But behind the headlines is the sad fact that labor force participation is awful. ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It———...

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Why *Only* That Specific One?

On February 23, the US Treasury sold off $60 billion and change of 2-year notes (CUSIP 91282CBN0). This particular shorter-term instrument has been in the crosshairs of the reflation trade, lurching in and out of it going back to last October, perhaps even late September. Caught up being the immediate tenor following the bills which have been bid (for “some” reason) and longer-term notes and bonds which are more reflation sensitive, the yield on the 2s has been yo-yoing back and forth...

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Fragility (脆弱性)

For a short while, with reflation being traded in almost every corner of the global bond market, the Bank of Japan started to get “those” questions again. Almost of the humble brag variety. A few years ago, Japan’s central bank had widened what it considered to be an acceptable trading range for its 2016 QQE addendum of Yield Curve Control (YCC). In 2018, Haruhiko Kuroda’s regime stated that it would “allow” 10-year JGB yields anywhere between -20 bps and +20 bps. By late February 2021,...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 63; Part 2: Bills Disappeared From Public Mind But Not (Repo) Markets

63.2 Growing Economy? Treasury Bills Don’t Believe It!———Part 2 Summary———Economic recovery? Then why aren’t US Treasury Securities being OBLITERATED by the combined power of vaccines, fiscal stimulus and monetary easing? Maybe because stimulus is really ‘stimulus’ and easing is ‘easing’. Indeed, US Treasury Bills are being bid and signaling angst. ———See It———–...

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Consumer Price(s) Incalcitrant

While we consider the PPI’s view of inflationary pressures as overstated by simple arithmetic and the math of commodities, there’s no denying that producer prices have risen by a substantial amount. The question, the whole issue, is why. If it is truly because price pressures are building and have grown close to breaking out in systemic fashion, then that would indicate the sustainable trend more consistent with the term inflation.In order to reach that threshold, producer prices must...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 63; Part 1: Bernanke Was Not Making Sense, Bonds, Bubbles & Money

63.1 Bernanke’s Idea Doesn’t Make Any Sense———Part 3 Summary———In the early 2000s, bond markets ignored the Fed. Alan Greenspan called it a “conundrum”. Ben Bernanke blamed a “Global Savings Glut”. But recent Federal Reserve research notes events since 2008 upend the Bernanke glut and instead suggest economic weakness and financial fear as causal. ———SEE IT———–...

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