Wednesday , June 19 2019
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Technically Speaking: The Drums Of Trade War – Part Deux

In June of 2018, as the initial rounds of the “Trade War” were heating up, I wrote: “Next week, the Trump Administration will announce $50 billion in ‘tariffs’ on Chinese products. The trade war remains a risk to the markets in the short-term.” Of course, 2018 turned out to be a volatile year for investors which ended in the sell-off into Christmas Eve. As we have been writing for the last couple of weeks, the risks to the market have risen markedly as we head into the summer months. “It is a...

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Technically Speaking: “‘Trade War’ In May & Go Away.”

Over the weekend, President Trump decided to reignite the “trade war” with China with two incendiary tweets. Via WSJ: “In a pair of Twitter messages Sunday, Mr. Trump wrote he planned to raise levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% starting Friday, from 10% currently. He also wrote he would impose 25% tariffs ‘shortly’ on $325 billion in Chinese goods that haven’t yet been taxed. ‘The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate,’ the president...

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Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Growth Much Weaker Than Advertised

With analysts once again hoping for a surge in earnings in the months ahead, along with an economic revival, it is worth noting this has always been the case. Currently, there are few, if any, Wall Street analysts expecting a recession currently, and many are certain of a forthcoming economic growth cycle. Yet, at this time, there are few catalysts supportive of such a resurgence. The Fed isn’t hiking rates, but they aren’t reducing them either. The Fed isn’t reducing their balance sheet...

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The Trepidation Trap

When markets decline, investors worry. When they decline sharply, investors get frightened. If selling is extreme, it leads to fear and trepidation. What might signal a more favorable climate? Holding “support?” A big rebound rally? Favorable news? Mustn’t there be something? Beware of these high-profile traps. My own comments follow in italics. The “sucker’s rally” trap. This term was applied by many to Wednesday’s historic market gains. [If declines like those of the last...

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