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Tag Archives: Market Sentiment

Weekend Reading: Correction Over As “Trump Hope” Remains

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Over the last couple of months, I have repeatedly discussed what has been possibly the most “boring” market ever. That was until the previous Wednesday when the market deciding to take a quick “road trip” to the 50-dma.  It didn’t last long. The market promptly went back to sleep in a light volume flotation (note decline in volume during advance) back to old highs. Yesterday, after multiple attempts,...

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Stocks Surge For 7th Straight Day As US Macro Data Hits 15-Month Lows

"Smells Like Victory" - Happy Memorial Weekend...   Let's start with this...   S&P at record highs as US macro data topples to 15-month lows...   Nasdaq hit record highs as Earnings Expectations slump to 2017 lows...   Small Caps remain underwater post-Trump-Dump... Nasdaq is now up 7 days in a row - longest streak since early Feb NOTE - today was different - no big spike in stocks   Today saw S&P and Dow glued to the flatline...with a very...

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Gartman Turns Bullish On Tech: “Every Time We Think The Market Is Overbought, It Moves Higher”

First, it was Warren Buffett turning bullish on tech, and now none other than Dennis Gartman has thrown in the towel on "things that if dropped on your foot shall hurt” and will instead focus on "buying the things that are either replacing these simple things or are making these simple things better." From his latest note: We stand in awe of the sheer relentless nature of the global bull market. Unlike the parabolic rise by Bitcoin, for example, the trend from the lower left to the...

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Bulls Struggle With Bearish Internals

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact that despite the bullish “exuberance” of market participants, the underlying internal deterioration has continued. To wit: “Furthermore, the underlying internals have continued to weaken over the last week which has remained a concern over the last couple of months.   The 10-year chart below, while a bit cluttered, shows several very important...

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Speculators Have Never Been This Short VIX (As Volatility Hits Record Low)

This is not how it's supposed to work... "Buy low, Sell high" they say. But in the new normal of risk-parity strategies, momentum igniters, and trend-following CTA flows, its "Buy high, buy more higher... and never sell until you're forced to liquidate" Amid the longest period of low volatility complacency in US stock market history, which saw realized volatility and VIX (expectations for future volatility) collapse to near-record lows...   Speculators...

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“Vol Be Crazy”: Deutsche Wants To Know When The Insanity Will End

US equity vol is as 23 year lows, and by the looks of things (already down 0.5%) may test an unprecedented 8 handle later today as CTAs, risk-pars and vol-neutral funds dump more volatility the lower it gets. Turns out it is the same story in FX. As DB's macro strategist Oliver Harvey writes overnight in a note titled "Vol be crazy", "one of the main themes this year has been the fall in vol. We argued three months ago that FX vol looked cheap given elevated policy uncertainty, but a pick-up...

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Goldman Warns The Gap Between Stock Investors’ Hopes & Reality Is Close To An All-Time High

If US GDP growth were tracking sentiment data alone, Goldman estimates the US economy would be growing at its fastest rate of the post-crisis period... But as many saw yesterday - crushing the hopes and dreams of a multitude of over-confident asset-gatherers and commission-takers. As Goldman Sachs' Himmelberg notes, the music has yet to stop for market sentiment. Sentiment indicators are running extremely high among both households and small businessmen. While there are some signs of a...

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Still Confused About Trump’s 1-Page Tax Plan? Goldman Explains It All

Since at its core, yesterday's 1-page "tax plan" was a Goldman creation - and was presented to the world by two former Goldman employees -  who better to explain what Trump had in mind than Goldman Sachs itself, which it did overnight in a far lengthier note from its chief Washington analyst Alec Phillips.  Here is Goldman with an elaboration of the handful of bullet points contained on the much anticipated one page, extending it by nearly 600% to some 6 pages of details. Perhaps...

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Despite Mounting Losses, Mystery Trader “50 Cent” Doubles Down With Massive VIX Spike Bet

Three weeks ago we introduced the real "50 Cent" - the mystery trader whose pattern of huge, near-daily trades on the VIX is turning heads in the options market. Not him..   As we detailed previously, Pravit Chintawongvanich, head of risk strategy at Macro Risk Advisors,  the huge options buyer known as "50 Cent" shows no signs of slowing down. "I would categorize them as someone who doesn't flinch at losing money," commented Chintawongvanich who...

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Crispin Odey: “It Feels Lonely Being Bearish”

In Crispin Odey's latest letter to investors, the billionaire hedge fund manager laments "how quickly everything has changed", notes that "without the reflation fireworks, equity markets feel vulnerable", and concludes that while a year ago it was easy to be bearish - China was slowing, world trade was creaking, Europe was not recovering and the oil price was hitting new lows - "a year later to be bearish feels lonely, despite the fact that the reflationary story of the past year looks...

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